After going two from three in midweek, the column now sits at eight winners from the last twelve selections, and confidence is high heading into the weekend.
The National League card once again offers some standout opportunities. Yeovil’s clash with Altrincham looks tailor-made for goals, with both sides far more comfortable in attack than defence. Boreham Wood, on the other hand, are shaping up as a reliable home pick against a Woking side struggling badly on the road, and the win combined with under six goals lines up strongly with the data.
Halifax’s meeting with Aldershot should be one of the most entertaining matches on the slate, with the visitors regularly involved in high-scoring games and Halifax’s home form pointing the same way. Different angles across these fixtures, but all backed by numbers and trends that highlight value in the market.
Yeovil vs Altrincham
Yeovil’s meeting with Altrincham has all the ingredients for goals, and the over 2.5 line looks well worth taking. Both sides are mid-table in the National League, but the numbers show a clear tendency towards open matches rather than tight, controlled affairs.
Starting with Yeovil, they have scored in nine of their eleven league fixtures so far. Their attack carries a consistent threat, and they average more than a goal per game even against top-half opponents. The problem for them has been at the other end, with sixteen goals conceded already. At home they have let sides create chances freely, and their xGA sits above 1.3 per ninety, underlining that defensive shakiness. Three of their last five games have finished over 2.5, and that trend reflects the balance of a side that always looks more dangerous going forward than when forced to defend.
Altrincham have been even more closely linked with high-scoring outcomes. Four of their last five matches have produced three or more goals, and in eleven games overall they have conceded eighteen while scoring fifteen. Their style is direct, they get numbers into the box, and their SiB data is positive with more than eight shots in the box created per game. The issue, like Yeovil, is a leaky defence that rarely manages a clean sheet.
This head-to-head shapes into exactly the type of game that ends up stretched. Neither team has a clear control of midfield, both prefer to play on the front foot, and when chances arrive the finishing quality is there. With Yeovil strong at home in attack and Altrincham bringing a threat on the road, both teams scoring looks highly likely, and the match is set up to push past the two-goal mark.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 4/5 with Bet365
Boreham Wood vs Woking
Boreham Wood look very well placed to collect three points against Woking, and combining the home win with under six total goals creates a strong angle backed by the data.
At Meadow Park, Boreham Wood have been one of the most reliable sides in the division. Four wins from five at home highlight their consistency, and their underlying numbers support it. Their home xPTS sits among the league’s top ten, and they control games well, conceding only five goals in five outings. They do not need to blow teams away to win matches, but their organisation and balance make them tough to oppose on their own patch.
Woking, on the other hand, are struggling near the foot of the table. They have just two wins in eleven league matches and their away profile is among the weakest in the league. Their xPTS away from home is only 3.37, and they average fewer than one expected goal per ninety while allowing far too many chances in the box. That combination usually spells trouble against efficient home teams like Boreham Wood.
The under six goals element comes down to the way both teams play. Boreham Wood are not a side that gets involved in chaotic, end-to-end encounters. Their home matches have produced an average of exactly three goals, and only once this season has a Boreham Wood game gone beyond five. Woking’s fixtures are even tighter, with seven of eleven staying under three goals. Neither side has the attacking firepower to push this into a high-scoring shootout, and the likelihood of six or more goals is extremely low.
With Boreham Wood strong at home, Woking weak away, and both trending to controlled score lines, the home win and under six goals combination is the smart play.
- Best Bet: Boreham Wood win & under 6 goals at 5/6 with Bet365
Halifax vs Aldershot
Halifax against Aldershot has all the hallmarks of a game where both teams will get on the scoresheet and the match pushes beyond the two-goal line. The data across the season points strongly in that direction, and the way these two sides set up only strengthens the case.
Halifax are ranked top in the league for away xPTS, but their home numbers are among the weakest. At The Shay they have been vulnerable, conceding too many shots in the box and struggling to control games. That usually means they need to score more than once themselves to get a result. Their recent matches have been high-scoring, with four of the last five at home producing at least three goals, and their defensive record shows they rarely shut sides out.
Aldershot, meanwhile, are the clearest “chaos team” in the division. Nine of their eleven league fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals, an 82 percent strike rate, and they combine one of the league’s highest xG for totals with one of the worst against figures. That makes them entertaining but unpredictable, with constant chances at both ends. They have already been involved in 4-0, 5-3, and 4-1 score lines this season, and on their travels the pattern has been the same, with four of five away games clearing the goal line.
The matchup is a perfect fit. Halifax are too open at home to be trusted defensively, Aldershot create more than enough to score but cannot keep opponents out. With both sides ranking high for total xG per game, the probability of both teams to score and over 2.5 landing together is far stronger than the market suggests. Goals and chances should flow freely here, making this one of the best angles on Saturday’s National League card.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 5/6 with Bet365
Further Reading
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