We head into this weekend’s National League card on the back of a perfect return, landing all three of our bets last time out. Confidence is high, and once again the numbers point us towards a clear set of angles.
Saturday’s fixtures throw up some strong mismatches and one game that looks primed for goals. Rochdale’s trip to Truro City pits a title contender against one of the league’s strugglers, Southend United face a Boston side who continue to struggle in front of goal, while Carlisle’s meeting with Aldershot Town has all the ingredients for a high-scoring contest. Each of these matches lines up with season-long data and recent trends, giving us three well-backed selections to target.
Carlisle Utd vs Aldershot
Carlisle’s clash with Aldershot stands out as the most likely game of the weekend to produce goals at both ends. Carlisle have been one of the strongest sides in the league so far, sitting third in the table with 17 points from eight matches. At home they have been especially prolific, scoring 12 times in four games, averaging over eight shots on target and more than 10 shots inside the box. They have the balance to dominate most opponents, but they have also shown they can be exposed defensively, conceding in five of their eight matches.
Aldershot, meanwhile, have been the division’s entertainers. They have scored 22 goals in eight matches, the most of any side, but they have also conceded 17, leaving their matches averaging close to five goals each. Crucially, all eight of their league games have gone over 2.5 goals. Their last four outings alone have produced nine big chances created and only two conceded, showing they always commit numbers forward but leave themselves open at the back.
When set against Carlisle’s attacking firepower, this should be an open contest. Carlisle are unlikely to keep Aldershot quiet, given their relentless forward play, but the visitors simply do not have the defensive control to resist a top three side. With both teams full of attacking intent and Aldershot’s track record of high-scoring matches, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score is the clear betting angle.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals & Both teams to score at 10/11 with Bet365
Boston Utd vs Southend Utd
Southend’s trip to Boston United brings together one of the league’s most efficient teams with one of its weakest. Southend have collected 17 points from eight games and sit inside the top four, built on the best defensive record in the division. They have kept five clean sheets, conceded just five goals, and are yet to lose away from home in four outings. Their defensive process is elite too: Southend rank inside the top three for non-penalty xGA, shots on target conceded and big chances conceded. They are disciplined, compact, and rarely allow opponents into dangerous positions.
Boston, by contrast, are struggling. They sit 19th in the table with only seven points from seven games. At home they have taken three points from three fixtures, scoring just three times. Across the season they have failed to score in three matches, created only four big chances and rank in the bottom five for expected points, shots in the box ratio and overall attacking output. Their blunt attack is a poor match for Southend’s strength.
The defensive control Southend bring, coupled with Boston’s limitations in the final third, points strongly towards the visitors winning. But it is unlikely to turn into a high-scoring contest. Southend rarely cut loose in attack, averaging just over a goal a game, so an away win in a match with under 3.5 goals looks the clear angle.
- Best Bet: Southend win & under 3.5 goals at 23/20 with Betway
Truro City vs Rochdale
Rochdale’s trip to Truro looks like one of the clearest mismatches on the weekend card. Truro sit in the bottom two with only one win from eight games and have failed to score in five of those matches. At home they have just four points from four outings and have already conceded five goals, while their underlying numbers place them among the weakest sides in the division. They rank bottom three for expected points, bottom six for shots in the box ratio and big chances created and have managed just one clean sheet all season.
Rochdale, by contrast, have started in dominant fashion. They are second in the table with six wins from seven, scoring 15 goals and conceding only four. Away from home they have won two of three, hitting six goals and conceding just three. Their process is as strong as their results: they sit top two across expected points, non-penalty xG difference and shots in the box supremacy. Over the last four games they rank first for xG ratio and shots in the box and have averaged more than two expected goals per match.
Truro’s inability to create or convert chances looks decisive against a Rochdale side who are clinical and balanced at both ends. All indicators point towards an away win.
- Best Bet: Rochdale win at 4/5 with BetMGM
Further Reading
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- Brentford vs Chelsea Prediction and Betting Tips
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