We went two from three on Saturday, and the midweek National League card offers another set of strong betting opportunities, with three games in particular standing out based on recent form and season-long metrics.
At the Mazuma, Morecambe host Halifax in what looks tailor-made for goals. Morecambe have been wide open defensively all season, conceding at alarming rates, while still carrying enough threat going forward to ensure their matches rarely stay quiet. Halifax’s ability to score but also concede makes the case for over 2.5 even stronger.
Rochdale, meanwhile, look in a strong position at home to Solihull Moors. Dale have put together one of the most consistent five-game runs in the division, backed up by excellent underlying numbers at Spotland. Solihull’s away form and metrics point towards them struggling to contain a side that controls territory and chance creation, but without the likelihood of the game running away on the score line. That brings Rochdale to win and under 4.5 into focus.
The other standout fixture comes at Moss Lane, where leaders Forest Green travel to Altrincham. Rovers are still unbeaten and have the best defensive record in the league, while Alty’s record against top-ten sides has been poor, losing all four and conceding heavily. Forest Green’s balance and control makes them strong favourites to extend their run and take another three points.
Three different games, three different angles with goals at Morecambe, a controlled Rochdale win, and another statement from Forest Green, all backed by the data.
Morecambe vs Halifax
Morecambe’s clash with Halifax has all the signs of a high-scoring encounter, and the data backs up the case for over 2.5 goals landing.
Starting with Morecambe, their defensive record has been one of the poorest in the National League. They have conceded 15 goals across their last five games, an average of three per match, and sit bottom for xPTS overall. Their xGA has been consistently high, and the volume of shots they allow tells the same story. In their last four matches alone they have faced over 12 shots in the box and more than six shots on target per game. Playing at home does little to tighten them up, with Wealdstone, Scunthorpe and Southend all recently creating plenty of clear chances against them.
Going forward, Morecambe still offer a threat, which is why their matches tend to open up. They have scored nine goals in their last five, and only one of those games finished under 2.5. They rank mid-table for npxG created, and when chasing games they commit players forward, leaving even more space in behind for opponents.
Halifax, meanwhile, arrive in reasonable scoring form. They have netted in all of their last five, including four against Morecambe’s fellow strugglers Wealdstone. Their underlying numbers support that, ranking in the top half for xG ratio and shots on target ratio. However, they are not watertight themselves, conceding nine in the same five-match spell.
With Morecambe so open and Halifax capable of exploiting defensive gaps, another goal-heavy game looks very likely. Over 2.5 goals is the clear play here.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Paddy
Rochdale vs Solihull Moors
Rochdale’s clash with Solihull Moors looks a strong spot for the home side, and the numbers also point toward a controlled game that stays under the 4.5 goal mark.
Starting with form, Rochdale sit third in the last five-game table, collecting 12 points from four wins and one defeat. They have been consistent at both ends, scoring eight and conceding just three across that spell. Solihull, by contrast, are mid-table in that same period, with only seven points from five outings and a goal difference of zero. That gulf in recent output underlines the difference in level heading into this fixture.
Rochdale’s underlying data is even stronger. At home, they average 2.50 xG and just 0.60 against, one of the best returns in the league. They also dominate the shots-in-box ratio, creating over 12 per game and allowing fewer than five. Solihull’s away metrics tell the opposite story, with their last four trips producing an average xGA of 1.80 and 12 shots conceded inside the box. It is difficult to see them containing a Rochdale frontline that regularly generates volume and quality in advanced areas.
The market angle comes with the goals line. Rochdale have been efficient without being chaotic with eight of their last nine victories have landed under 4.5 goals. Solihull have not been prolific either, failing to score more than once in six of their last seven away games. With Dale favourites to take control but unlikely to need a rout, the best value sits on Rochdale to win and under 4.5 goals, combining their superiority with the realistic scoring range of this contest.
- Best Bet: Rochdale to win & under 4.5 goals at 10/11 with Betway
Altrincham vs Forest Green Rovers
Forest Green come into this round top of the standings with seven wins and three draws, still unbeaten and with just five goals conceded all season. Their defensive solidity is no accident, as the wider metrics place them near the top for xPTS and non-penalty xGA, showing how rarely they allow quality chances.
Altrincham’s recent picture is far less convincing. They sit fourteenth in the last five-game table, with three defeats in that stretch and eight goals shipped. It highlights a recurring problem when facing sides with more attacking power: they can be opened up too easily. Against top-ten opposition they have played four and lost four, conceding at least twice on every occasion.
That trend is reinforced when you compare their results with the teams driving the form table. Boreham Wood, Carlisle and Rochdale all sit in the top six and are exactly the type of opponents Altrincham have come up short against. Forest Green, with their balance between a tight defence and sharp finishing, fit the same profile.
Elsewhere, York, Southend and Halifax are putting together decent runs, but Forest Green’s unbeaten sequence is underpinned by stronger control, particularly without the ball. Altrincham’s six points from their last five outings show a mid-table resilience, yet it also underlines the gulf between stability and genuine promotion-level consistency.
Taking the season-long metrics alongside the last five-game form, Forest Green look very well placed. They rank among the top sides for both performance and efficiency, while Altrincham remain outside the top ten and vulnerable. All signs point towards Forest Green extending their unbeaten run.
- Best Bet: Forest Green to win at 6/5 with William Hill
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