As the National League season heads into its final stretch, every point is crucial for teams battling for promotion and those fighting to avoid relegation. This weekend’s fixtures offer some intriguing matchups, with high-scoring trends, promotion chasers looking to maintain their dominance, and relegation-threatened sides desperate for a lifeline.
In this betting preview, we break down three key fixtures: AFC Fylde vs Braintree Town, a clash between two struggling teams where goals could flow freely; Aldershot vs Gateshead, a game featuring one of the league’s most exciting attacking sides in a must-win battle; and Barnet vs Dagenham & Redbridge, where the league leaders look to extend their impressive home record against a side fighting to stay in the division.
We’ll explore the best betting angles for these matchups, looking at form, statistics, and potential goal-scoring opportunities. Let’s dive into the action and find the best value bets for the weekend!
AFC Fylde vs Braintree Town
FC Fylde find themselves in serious relegation trouble, with their record of W10-D6-L18 leaving them in a precarious position. Their defensive issues are glaring, having conceded 65 goals, with only bottom-placed Ebbsfleet United shipping more this season. However, their attacking output has been relatively strong for a struggling side, scoring 30 goals at home, a tally better than 18 other teams in the division.
At home, Fylde’s record stands at W7-D4-L6, and while they have only failed to score twice in their 16 home matches, defensive frailties remain a major concern. They have kept just four clean sheets in that period, with over 2.5 goals landing in 71% of their home fixtures. The two matches in which they failed to score include a 0-0 draw with Maidenhead in August and a 5-0 defeat to Woking in October. More recently, they have found the net in each of their last nine home games, with both teams scoring in 12 of their 17 home fixtures. Their last 14 National League matches have averaged 3.08 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 11 of those fixtures. Additionally, Fylde have conceded two or more goals in seven of their last 13 matches, underlining their defensive struggles.
They face a Braintree side that sits just five points above them in the table, with a record of W10-D9-L16. Braintree’s defensive issues mirror Fylde’s struggles, as they have kept just two clean sheets on the road this season, while failing to score in only three of their 17 away matches. Like their opponents, Braintree have seen 70% of their away fixtures go over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 12 of their 17 away games, including 12 of their last 14 matches.
Braintree have also been consistent in attack, finding the net in 13 of their last 14 away matches and in 17 of their last 20 National League fixtures. Given the trends of both teams, both teams to score looks very likely, but with odds too short at 1.67, backing over 2.5 goals at 1.8 provides much better value.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 match goals at 1.80 with Bet365
Aldershot vs Gateshead
Aldershot have been the definition of entertainment in recent weeks, with their last 16 National League matches averaging 3.50 goals per game. Both teams to score has landed in 14 of their last 16 fixtures, with Aldershot both scoring and conceding 1.75 goals per game in that period. This attacking but vulnerable approach has resulted in both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals landing in 12 of those 16 games.
Across the season, 64% of Aldershot’s home matches have seen at least three goals, while defensively, they have struggled, keeping just three clean sheets at home all season. They have failed to score in six games at home, though two of those came against league leaders Barnet and second-placed York City. Sitting 18th in the league, Aldershot are still not safe from relegation, just three points above the drop zone. However, they do have a game in hand over most of their rivals. Their W8-D13-L12 record highlights their inconsistency, but their 49 goals scored rank them seventh-best in the league. On the flip side, they have conceded 55 goals, with only three teams shipping more across the entire division.
They host Gateshead, a side sitting fourth in the league, seven points behind third-placed Forest Green, but comfortably ahead of eighth-placed Eastleigh, who are currently outside the playoff spots. Gateshead’s away form has been impressive, with a W7-D6-L5 record, and they have netted a league-high 31 goals on their travels. However, their 24 goals conceded away from home puts them mid-table defensively, with just five clean sheets in 18 away games.
Despite their strong attacking form, Gateshead have shown defensive frailties on the road, with both teams scoring in 10 of their 18 games. While they failed to score in recent trips to York, Rochdale and Yeovil, they have still managed to find the net in six of their last nine away games. Against sides sitting 14th and below, Gateshead have been dominant, boasting a W12-D3-L2 record.
With both sides desperate for points—Aldershot to secure safety and Gateshead to strengthen their playoff push—this match should see goals at both ends. Both teams to score alone is priced at just 1.57, but combining both teams to score and over 2.5 goals increases the odds to 1.91 with Betway, which looks like an excellent value bet given both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities and attacking firepower.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 1.95 with Ladbrokes
Barnet vs Dagenham & Redbridge
Barnet sit comfortably at the top of the National League, holding a nine-point lead over second-placed York City, although York do have a game in hand. At home, Barnet have been dominant with an unbeaten record of W15-D3-L0, scoring a league-high 48 goals while conceding just 12. Only Forest Green have conceded fewer home goals than Barnet this season.
Barnet have been incredibly consistent in front of goal at The Hive, scoring two or more goals in 15 of their 18 home games, averaging 2.67 goals per game. Defensively, they have been strong, conceding just 0.71 goals per game, though this includes three goals conceded in a 3-3 draw against Sutton. Excluding that match, they have conceded just 0.56 goals per game, keeping eight clean sheets in 18 home matches.
Dagenham, meanwhile, find themselves in a relegation battle, sitting just one point above the drop zone with 35 points from 34 matches (W8-D12-L15). Their away form has been a significant issue, as only three sides have collected fewer points on the road and only one team has scored fewer away goals. Defensively, however, they have been relatively solid, conceding 22 goals away from home, which is the 10th-best defensive record in the division and just two more goals than Barnet have conceded on their travels.
Dagenham’s record against top-half sides away from home is W1-D3-L5, and crucially, only one of their defeats this season has been by a margin of three or more goals, a 3-0 loss to Eastleigh. Their away matches average just 2.06 goals per game, and they have only scored two or more goals on the road twice all season, with one of those coming against bottom-placed Ebbsfleet.
Backing Barnet to win outright at 1.44 offers little value, but combining a Barnet win with under 4.5 goals boosts the odds to 1.72. This looks a solid bet, considering that only two of Barnet’s 14 home victories have featured over 4.5 goals. Even if Dagenham manage to score, Barnet would need to net four or more goals for this bet to lose, something they have only done twice at home all season. With Dagenham’s lack of attacking threat and Barnet’s defensive solidity, this is the best angle to take for a home win against struggling opposition.
- Best Bet: Barnet win & under 4.5 goals at 1.72 with Skybet
