Good evening all, the first quarter of the season has been and gone and I closed it off with 3 out of 3 last week, first clean sweep for a while, hopefully something I'll be able to keep going as we move into the next phase of the season.
I'll be editing this post later, but family called and I'm having to do this on the go at the moment.
Spread
There's a lot of big spreads this week although a few have been snipped in, the Bengals for example opened at 14, now into 11.5. The Colts and Browns is now televised in the UK and is the closest game you're going to find this weekend. The Colts a 1 point road dog at the moment, I'm staying away from that one though.
The spread I'll be putting up for the column though is the Texans -5.5 hosting the Jaguars. It's not often you'll find an 0-4 team as a 5.5 point favourite but the Texans have had an historically tough start to the season so it's not the biggest shock in the world to find them winless in week 5. They removed their head coach this week and reports seem to be that JJ Watt led a bit of a player revolt as they weren't happy with the way he did things. While I don't think it's a coaching upgrade they should get a bounce tonight. It turns out the Jaguars are who we thought they were, a 4.5 win team. They won that opener but have since lost to the Dolphins, Bengals and Titans. They're not bad on offense, but the defense has been poor.
Houston Texans -5.5 – 10/11 everywhere.
The totals have been going over most weeks but they're getting higher as well, there's still a few I think will go over but there's a bit too much doubt for me in most of the games this week.
Player prop
I try to stay away from games involving my Bengals, but at the same time I know more about them than any team in the league, so I figure I should know who is doing what in this offense. AJ Green looks a shadow of his former self, he is still getting the main coverage from opposing teams but isn't getting separation and doesn't seem to make catches at the moment. Him being out there does help other players though, Tyler Boyd being the main beneficiary so far this season with at least 72 yards in each of the last 3 games, so I'm happy to take o60.5 receiving yards on him in this one. He typically does fairly well against the Ravens and the Bengals have been putting up points with regularity, something they'll have to do to keep this game interesting.
Tyler Boyd o60.5 receiving yards.
TD Scorer
I was tempted to go back in on Mark Andrews this week, he's plus money to score again. Darius Slayton another consideration for the Giants, they've only thrown 2 TDs all year though, so it's not something I want to post on here (I have actually got 20s on 2 or more for him against a terrible Cowboys defense) but I think for this column I'll be looking at Eric Ebron for the Steelers. He found a connection with Big Ben in their last game with a score against the Texans and coming off an enforced bye week they should be fresh and prepared against an Eagles team who have struggled against the tight end, George Kittle had 15 receptions last week against them. 15! The Steelers should get some good field position as their pass rush will kill the Eagles offensive line.
Eric Ebron anytime best priced 9/4 (888)
Summary
- Texans -5.5 – 10/11 (most)
- Tyler Boyd o60.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (skybet/365)
- Eric Ebron anytme TD – 9/4 (888)
NFL WEEK 5
Yet to have a losing treble this season, 4-0
NFL Teaser
11/10/20
Arizona Cardinals -1
Pittsburgh Steelers -1
Los Angeles Rams -1.5
Treble 5/4 888sport
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11/10/20
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (18:00)
OVER 51 points
10/11 888sport (NAP)
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11/10/20
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (18:00)
BALTIMORE -7 first half handicap
20/21 bet365
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NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys (21:25)
NY GIANTS +9.5
9/10 paddy power
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (18:00)
JAMES ROBINSON Over 93.5 rushing & receiving yards
5/6 skybet
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (18:00)
JAMES ROBINSON score anytime
5/6 william hill
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Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (21:05)
MIAMI DOLPHINS +9.5
4/5 Genting Bet (NB)
Don’t mind the James Robinson bets this week the Texans have been terrible vs the run.
I can’t be touching the Giants.
The Ravens bets look good, been trying to think how to attack that game, first score or first half seem sensible
The Giants bet will make people look and wonder, I even had to think twice about it but the way I look for bets made them stand out, I rarely look at actual results I mainly look at the spread results because it’s a more accurate form guide for me, the spread results just tell us how teams are actually doing against how they are meant to do, the Giants are 2-2 ATS this season while the Cowboys are 0-4
The Giants are bad and even as a Giants fan I hope we don’t win a game this season because even the Giants can’t overlook Trevor Lawrence as the number 1 draft pick,
I know we haven’t scored any offensive points in our last 9 quarters and the two wins against the spread have just been because of the defence but I think the Giants defence can hold the Cowboys to 24 points and I think we can score 15 maybe 18
John thanks again for last night. Free weekend for me thanks to you. On your teaser. Gl.
Cards, Texans, Steelers, all -.2.5 and dolphins +14.5 handicap acca a shade over 5/2
All over those Robinson bets too
Bengals + 16
Cards texans ML
Chiefs under 54.5
4.4/1
Gl lads
Ravens vs Bengals over 49
Houston Texans -3.5
Arizona Cardinals -6.5
Pittsburg Steelers-5
7.77/1 @ Skybet
Hi all missed the early games granddad duty shattered 🤣
Couple of prop bets in the late games
J Taylor o 65.5 rush yards
J Mc kinnon o 35.5 rush yards
Colts and 49s their teams
Both 5/6 or 9/4 the double skybet
☘️
Texans covered.
Bengals were atrocious on offense. Defense actually played quite well.
Ebron didn’t score. Andrews did. Of course.
Even I didn’t see my phins doing this well against the 9ers still a 2nd half to go but my bet looking good barring a complete disaster in the 2nd half. The cowboys might be doing their best to make sure the giants win a game John lol. Adam don’t be disheartened even the best rookie qbs will have their bad days. The Ravens are one of the better teams in the AFC ATM especially on D. Burrow is good and with improvements on the o-line he will get even better. I’m hoping tua will be just as good for the phins. Those raiders showed they can ball beating the chiefs but they are inconsistent
Well done big mick
Well done Johnb
Main bet well in Adam
Bad injury to dak Prescott just then ouch
Could be season out
Unlucky on the Nap Johnb. But Well done on your treble that’s 5/5.
Thanks, thought the Bengals might have put a few more points up for the NAP
Tonight’s NFL game
13/10/20
Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints (01:15)
LA CHARGERS +7.5 points
5/6 888sport NAP
HUNTER HENRY RECEPTIONS OVER 4.5
5/4 skybet
KEENAN ALLEN RECEPTIONS OVER 6.5
4/5 william hill (NB)
I like the Chargers tonight with the players that are likely to play, some are just doubtful but looking at injury lists it’s the Saints that could be hit the most, add in that it’s no secret that Drew Brees arm isn’t what it used to be points me in the direction of the Chargers, even with Alvin Kamara “who can win a game on his own” in the Saints team,
I am going for the handicap betting but I wouldn’t be surprised with a Chargers outright win
Keenan Allen has gone over the 6.5 total receptions in 3 of the 4 games played, he has been targeted a total of 48 times in those 4 games and caught 32 of them,
Hunter Henry has gone over the 4.5 total in 3 of the 4 games played, he has been targeted 27 times and caught 18 of them
Early thoughts for next week coral machine
Steelers + 2.5. 1/2
Packers + 4. 1/2
Cardinals + 5 4/9
Treble pays 9/4
Also
Panthers + 3.5 8/15
Vikings + 2.5 8/15
Rams + 2.5 8/15
Treble pays over 5/2
All six pays 12/1
Any thoughts ☘️
Like the coral in shop machine but live in nw Liverpool area looks like bookies on the list to close 🤷♂️ So hopefully not for too long 🙏
Good page this. Thanks lads.
https://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/
Am I reading this correctly, the higher the spread the more likely the favourite will win?
Hey super Jim that is correct the higher the spread the more likely that team is to win the game but it doesn’t mean they are more likely to beat the spread. The spread is how many points the experts/bookies think that team is going to win by.
I read it as how likely they were to cover the spread, not just to win as you correctly pointed out. I wonder what percentage of favourites actually do cover the spread. Cheers Bigmick.
Alvin kamara 50+ rushing yards & 2+ touchdowns 4/1 boosted price @ skybet.
(Kamara averages 59 rushing yards per game & has 7 touchdowns in 4 games this season)
I like the chargers tonight as well but playing safe taking them +9.5 and over 43.5 total points 11/8
Going for an outside td scorer Parham Jr. 20/1
The saints have let a TEAM score against them every week so far and I know Henry is the main guy but Parham scored last week albeit his only target. At 6′ 8″ he can be an end zone target for Herbert.
Lastly going for Herbert over 14.5 rushing yds 4/5
I like Johns bets on Allen and hunter as well. Allen is Herbert’s version of Thomas for Brees although Thomas is out. Saints have mainly struggled against TEs this season though they didn’t give hockenson much last week the td aside. Waller ripped them and tonyan did well too. He should get 5-6 receptions
That should be TE not team above auto correct lol
NFL + 5pts
Chargers to win 11/4 1pt win
Also chargers -3.5 19/5 1pt win
Hard luck. I was waiting on them to win by 1-6 points for a good few quid.
Main bet up of course I tip the long shot TE and not hunter. Can’t believe another OT loss for the chargers ouch. They have a QB in Herbert though he looked great last night.
Nice work everyone. I was on the Chargers for the RZ comp and Allen receptions, injury did that one in.
Had a win on Kamara rec. yards which I put in once it was announced Michael Thomas was out.
Got a TNF preview on my site tdtips.com if anyone is interested.
Only bet I’ll be posting is Bills – 0.5 1st Quarter at 2.05 on 365. They’ve won the 1st quarter in every game so far
If you can find a decent price on Titans third quarter right be worth a go too, Bills have only scored 7 pts in the third qtr this season.
I’m going for a same game multi for tonight. I’m going with how I see the game panning out as I expect the bills to get an early lead and win the game. I’m not convinced by the Titans this season they are 3-0 but gave up 30 points to the Jags and the Vikings. Bills offense is more explosive than both those teams. The bills d not been great though so it could be a high scoring game however I feel a low scoring game coming on so I’m leaving the total alone. My same game multi is some player props combined with the bills winning on the ml.
Tannehill over 241.5 yds, henry under 99.5 rushing yds, diggs over 81.5 yds and bills win 7.2/1
I’m basing it on the bills taking the lead early causing the Titans to abandon the run. The last 3 qbs the bills faced all over 300 yds, henry going under is a gamble I admit, and diggs has made the difference for Allen and is his go to guy and went over that total in 3 out of 4 games. Sorry for the long post and kinda repeating myself a bit but just getting my thoughts on the game and my reasoning for my bet tonight. Been a good weekend for most and good luck to all tonight. Both qbs going over 250 yds and maybe 300 yds could be a shout as well but I’m sticking to my one bet tonight. Got single 5/6 on tannehill going over the yds too.