NFL Week 4; London’s Calling

Week 4 of the NFL season arrives and we're sitting at three perfect teams on the good side of things and 4 on the bad side of things with the Eagles, 49ers and Dolphins winning every game this season and the Vikings, Panthers, Broncos and Bears all rolling into October without a win; the good news for the winless team is that, by a weird quirk of scheduling, face each other this week so we should be left with only two of them competing for the first pick in next years draft.

Today also sees the start of the NFL international series with the Jaguars over here for the 10th time taking on the Falcons who return after a successful journey just a few years ago where a Kyle Pitts found the endzone in a 27-20 win over the Jets. This year will be the first time we see successive games in London for a team with the Jaguars staying over here to host the Bills next weekend at Spurs, a game I shall be attending for my first trip to that stadium.

I'll run the rule over the London game before getting into the usual bets for the day.

Falcons +3 vs. Jaguars: 42.5

Both teams come in having both lost last weekend, the Falcons unable to get things going against the Lions in Detroit and the Jaguars suffering a shock loss in division to the Texans who put up nearly 40 points on them, so both will be looking to bounce back as they travel to our shores. A general trend of Wembley games is that they're lower scoring in general, while Spurs games played on a designed field have been a closer to what we'd expect. I will say that I have a weird expectation of TE's scoring in London games, one did in each last year (including Kyle Pitts in his one good statistical game) and I still have memories of Marcedes Lewis scoring a hat-trick for the Jags a few years back as they stuffed their opponent.

The Jaguars are 4-5 in London Games, having lost to the Broncos last year, so despite their familiarity with the trip it's not helped them over all, although their teams haven't be the best…

The Falcons will look to run the ball with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier sharing a 60/40-ish split in the backfield and they'll look to keep Desmond Ridder to minimal pass attempts as he's not exactly the best QB in the league. Bijan has looked every bit the top 10 pick he was for the Falcons in his touches so far in the league and it will be a pleasure for the London crowd to see such a talented player early on in his career. The passing game is tough to call due to the lack of control from the QB but it would be apt for Drake London to score in the city of his name. They do like the backup tight ends so I wouldn't be shocked to see Mycole Pruitt (20/1) or Jonnu Smith (17/2) find the endzone, they're generally big prices to do so.

The Jaguars have had a weird year, they look pretty good for most of the game but have been struggling in the redzone. Travis Etienne is running well, Trevor Lawrence is on the edge of the top 10 in the league at his position and Calvin Ridley has started the season quite well too. They are without Zay Jones today who has had a lot of redzone targets so that could open the door for Evan Engram to score from the TE position or Tank Bigsby who looks like he's getting the goal-line carries that Lawrence took himself last season.

This should be an entertaining game, both offenses are interesting to watch and while both defenses have improved they're still fallible.

I'll go for a Jaguars win 24-20 – Which means I'm leaning to Jags covering and an over on a low total.

Best Spread

Colts -1 vs. Rams

There's a lot of spreads right where I would expect them this week which makes my choice of best spread a tough one and for some reason I'm trusting a team I have no right to trust, mainly on the back of my faith in Anthony Richardson at QB. He's shown in the little we've seen so far that he's not as bad a passer as we thought coming into the league but he's settling in probably more than expected when running the ball as he's shown with 3 rushing TDs in 1 and a quarter games. The concussion issues are obviously a worry after being removed from the game in Week 2, but he'll carry on doing what he's doing and he might be my favourite TD scorer of the day too at 7/5.

The Rams lost to the Bengals on Monday night so are coming in on a short week, although they may have stayed in Ohio after their game in Cincinnati which would negate any travel issues. They lost their left tackle during that game and the Colts pass rush has been quite good so far and should get home on Matthew Stafford. Puka Nakua will probably get another 15 targets and will need to use his nippy-ness against some bigger cornerbacks.

Best Total

Bengals @ Titans u41

The Bengals got their first win of the season on Monday night in a close win with the Rams where Ja'marr Chase finally got some yardage, but overall the injury to Joe Burrow seems to be hampering a lot of what they want to do, he's not mobile enough in the pocket and he's floating a lot of passes where they need more zip. They do seem to have got the offensive line working better as he's taken a third of the sacks (5) he did by this time last year and Joe Mixon is looking the best he has in some time, but the offense is yet to properly click and they face a Titans defense which is capable of keeping their teams in games.

The Titans offense however is not good, Derrick Henry might finally be on the down-slope of his career after so many 300+ touch seasons and Ryan Tannehill is having a nightmare start behind a poor offensive line. The passing game being led by Deandre Hopkins would have been fine 3 or 4 years ago but he can't do it all himself and the rest of the team is yet to step up. I'll have a proper look at Tyjae Spears tonight who has been out-snapping Henry so far this season and see whether he's any good, but overall I can't see them putting up many points against a good Bengals defense which got home frequently on MNF.

Overall defense should be on top and it probably won't be a fun game to watch.

Best TD Scorer

AJ Brown – 11/8 (William Hill)

I did allude above to Anthony Richardson being a good bet and I stand by that, he looks like he'll get most of the goal-line carries for the Colts and he's shown he can find the endzone even if it might get him smashed in the head, but I'll go for AJ Brown for the Eagles for my scorer this week, he had a big game last weekend with 131 yards on 9 catches and he's been close to getting off his duck a few times this season with holding calls removing and a few just out of bounds. He's their star player and they should be able to load him up with targets in a game they should comfortably win. D'Andre Swift the other obvious choice in that game, he's looked immense in his starts this season.

Best Player Prop

Jake Ferguson o3.5 receptions – 23/20 (Bet365)

If you've read my posts this season you'll know I like the Cowboys and their proclivity for targeting the TE position and Ferguson is the main man there this year, he's had 7,4 and 7 targets in his games this season, hauling in 5 of his 7 in the Cowboys loss last weekend so I'm happy taking plus money on 4 receptions in a game where I think CeeDee Lamb will be the player the Patriots defense focuses on.

I do think De'Von Achane will have a good role for the Dolphins again after they released him on the Broncos last week, his line is 35.5 rushing yards if you think he'll get 8-10 touches then that could be a low line to go over. Jerome Ford o13.5 rec. yards for the Browns probably a good line but with Kareem Hunt getting more involved he could take pass-catching snaps away from him, and one final bonus from the AFC – I like Dameon Pierce to have a good game against a Steelers team who are poor vs. the run and who give up the most big runs in the league (so far this year) his rush line is 47.5 and his longest is 12.5.

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