NFL Week 11; Crunch time

We're getting to crunch time in the NFL as dropping to 6 losses could bring the curtains down on your season, while picking up a win at this point could be the catalyst for a run to the play-offs as we look towards Thanksgiving week next week.

The Pittsburgh Steelers might just have to avoid killing themselves as the rest of the AFC North falls apart, the Bengals and Browns lost their franchise QBs last week and the Ravens are without Mark Andrews for the season with an ankle injury, although they are 8-3 atop the division after their win against the Bengals on Thursday night.

There's only one game between two winning teams this week and it's the early sky game as the Browns host the Steelers in a probable defensive slug-fest.

Best Spread – Dolphins -13.5 vs. Raiders (Ladbrokes)

I hate taking double-digit spreads and I may well regret taking this over the Lions covering 8 hosting the Bears, but what we have seen this year is that the Dolphins destroy poor teams and despite a couple of wins on the bounce, at home with a new HC, I don't think the Raiders have turned a corner and become a good team.

The Dolphins welcome back De'von Achane to their running game after a few weeks off and if he's good to go as we expect he will be a big boost for their offense. Raheem Mostert has carried on scoring most weeks and the Raiders don't have anyone near talented enough to slow Tyreek Hill.

The Dolphins defense has improved with Jalen Ramsey in the side as well so I am expecting the Dolphins to win by 20+ in this one.

The Lions are second choice as the bullies of the NFC, when they beat bad teams it's generally by 14+ but it's a divisional game for them and they tend to be closer than expected..

Best Total – Cardinals v Texans o48 (WilliamHill)

It's tough to go against there being points in Texans games at the moment with the way CJ Stroud is playing, he's in to 1/20 to be offensive rookie of the year and currently sits 2nd in passing yards this season. He will likely be without Noah Brown this week who has stepped up recently and probably Nico Collins but he has shown with the time he's been getting from his healthy offensive line and the coaching which has been getting players wide open, that he's capable of getting big games from anyone. Dalton Schultz or Robert Woods may well step up to top up their yards on the season in this one.

The Cardinals had Kyler Murray and James Conner returning last week and promptly won their second game of the season, Murray looked mobile and accurate in the passing game and the emergence of Trey McBride will definitely help them as well.

Best TD Scorer – Brian Robinson 11/10 (Skybet)

The Commanders are 9 point favourites. That is ridiculous, but they are playing probably the worst team in the league this week and while I doubt they put up a 40-burger like the Cowboys did last week they should run out comfortable winners against the Giants. That generally means a lot of run plays and Robinson has shown himself a very good back this season on the ground and the air.

I don't mind Rico Dowdle at 7/2 for the Cowboys against the Panthers as well, they should have another cakewalk and he showed he's better near the goal-line than Pollard when scoring last weekend.

(Dobbs and Sutton at 11/1 in the late game is a decent price too)

Best Player Prop – Samaje Perine o17.5 receiving yards 10/11 (Bet365)

If you think De'Von Achane is near 100% healthy then his 49.5 rush yards and 13.5 receiving yards look like bankers, I'm a little hesitant on that myself but it's a game they should easily win and he showed this season he can take a 3 yard carry the full 75 if he gets the space.

But I'll go for Samaje Perine o17.5 receiving yards for the Broncos in SNF. He had 35 against the Bills on MNF and has topped this line in 6 of their 9 games this year, I think it will be a back and forth game and they obviously trust him in the passing game to move the ball for them.

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