So here we are with just three games remaining in the NFL season, and for the first time in my life supporting a team in the league they're in with a chance of making the big one in two weeks time! The Cincinnati Bengals were 150/1 to win the Super Bowl at the start of the season, only 3 teams had worse odds than them, but here they are with a franchise QB and talent all over the offensive side of the ball. They face the pre-season favourites, the Chiefs in Kansas City.
On the other side of the slate it's an NFC West re-match as the 49ers take on the Rams for the third time this season. The 49ers have won 6 games in a row against this opposition and with another win could set up a SB54 rematch against the Chiefs, while the Rams are looking to make it two home Super Bowls in two years after Tampa played in their own building last year.
You can already find lines on the Super Bowl if you want to try and get ahead of the game. Paddypower has the Chiefs at -2.5 against the Rams and -3 against the 49ers, while The Rams would be 3.5 point faves hosting the Bengals and the 49ers would be 2.5 point favourites against them. You'll get your money back if it's void, so Chiefs -3 v 49ers may be worth a dabble, I think that's very generous to San Fran.
Bengals +7 @ Chiefs: 54.5
These teams played each other just 4 weeks ago in Week 17 of the regular season with the Bengals winning 34-31 to seal their spot in the playoffs. The Chiefs couldn't be stopped in the first half, but only put up 3 points in the second half while they blitzed a lot and left players one-on-one which hurt them badly in the passing game, it was a great game to watch and this one should be similar.
The Bengals
They took care of the #1 seed Titans last week in a game which was far from clean. If you follow anything in the NFL you'll have heard all week about the 9 sacks taken by Joe Burrow. He was hit a lot, but he just doesn't care, he'll bounce back up and he still threw for nearly 350 yards despite the beating. The Titans pass rush was all over the Bengals, the Chiefs don't have that type of ability so it should be an easier game for him.
Joe Burrow is a winner, and he has helped change the culture in Cincinnati, he oozes confidence and that has to be running through everyone else in the dressing room. He should win comeback player of the year, and is yet to lose a playoff game in college or the NFL, 4-0 with LSU and 2-0 with the Bengals now. He threw for 446 yards and 4 TDs in the regular-season game and since then has kept up his high completion percentage without being able to polish off drives.
Teaming Burrow up with his college teammate Ja'marr Chase has proven very successful for the Bengals and the game which sealed his offensive rookie of the year award (probably) was against the Chiefs, 266 yards was a rookie single-game record and he added 3 TDs to that as he killed 1-on-1 coverage all day. I have to think that the Chiefs move some coverage towards him, but that won't phase this offense, they'll just throw to Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd instead. They haven't reached the heights of Chase this year, but Tee had over 1,000 yards and a few huge catches against the Chiefs while Boyd hasn't dropped a pass all season, they have weapons all over.
If those don't work then the tight end CJ Uzomah has shown in recent weeks to be reliable in the middle of the park but is a little hit and miss, while Joe Mixon has been more involved in the playoffs catching out of the back-field, the Chiefs aren't great at defending receiving RBs, so that could be a way to look. They're not great at stopping anything on defense actually so this should be a high-scoring game. Mixon should do well on the ground as well but with this likely to be a high-scoring game they might not be able to utilise the running game too much although I do think they'll load him up early as a way to try and protect Burrow a little more.
wsj.com
The Chiefs
Arguably the best game in NFL history, definitely in recent history saw the Chiefs get through the divisional round against the Bills in overtime last week, 25 points after the 2-minute warning as Patrick Mahomes helped tie up the game with 13 seconds left as they drove into field goal range quicker than most thought was possible.
Patrick Mahomes is the best in the game, and he showed that last week. It's been a weird season for him, starting slowly with a lot of problems as teams dropped safeties to slow down the passing attack of the Chiefs, but that's made them even more dangerous now as they don't rely on Kelce and Hill as much as they did early on, Mahomes has the talent to hit anyone anywhere on the field and he's been showing that this season.
The likes of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will probably still lead the team in targets and despite slower seasons than their usual very high standards, they have stepped up in the playoffs with each scoring a TD in each of the two games the Chiefs have played this post-season. Hill had 150 yards and a TD last week while Kelce scored the winner in overtime. Neither did much in the regular season game but this one really counts and it's tough to suggest they won't do anything here.
Outside of the big two you've got the likes of Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle, who just can't be stopped now he's popped out. He's had 5 receptions in each post-season game and has scored 3 TDs. Add to those the backup tight ends who seem to appear every now and then on trick plays and it's an impossible offense to stop as they've shown with 42 points against the Steelers and Bills.
The running game is tougher to figure out, Jerrick McKinnon has come in and took the bulk of the snaps last week with Clyde Edwards-Helaire returning from injury, I would assume that snap share stays similar but you never know with the Chiefs, I would think that McKinnon will be in on passing downs though so he should keep most of the snaps there. There's a chance that Darrell Williams is active too to mix things up even more, he looked good against the Bengals in that week 17 clash.
Bets.
I think the line is spot-on at 7, it went to 7.5 for a day and stayed there for longer than I thought it would but is back to 7 now. The total is high, but it's there for a reason, both teams should be putting up 30 points here.
I won't be backing the main lines as they're the sharpest they'll ever be, I do think the Chiefs win, the Bengals will keep it within 7 and the total goes over.
- Bengals 2nd half team total – over 10.5 – 1/1 (PaddyPower)
- Tee Higgins anytime – 7/4 (Bet365)
- Travis Kelce anytime – 20/21 (Bet365)
WHO DEY, WHO DEY, WHO DEY THINK GON' BEAT DEM BENGALS!
49ers +3.5 @ Rams: 45
The 49ers
They went to the frozen tundra and took care of the #1 seed Packers team thanks largely to a dominant special teams performance who blocked a field goal and returned a blocked punt for the TD, 13 points was enough to send Aaron Rodgers packing once more.
They say that defenses win Championships and this will prove whether that adage is correct or that is definitely the stronger area of this team. They are led at quarterback by Jimmy Garoppolo who is more handsome than most, but seems to be more of a game manager than anything else at QB. He's not thrown a TD pass in the postseason, just 27 completions to his own team and an interception in each, but the team wins with him under center so he obviously does something well even if it doesn't show up in his stat-line.
They are 35-15 with him starting at QB, and 8-28 when he's not on the field, so there's a reason he continues to start despite them giving up a lot to draft Trey Lance this year. He should be able to do the same thing here, but there's always an interception waiting to happen with him and that could cost them. He did lead a second-half comeback against the Rams in the Week18 game which got them into the playoffs, so he can do it if required.
They do have the most exciting player in the league this year which definitely helps, Deebo Samuel has been getting the ball rushing and receiving and done well with it, he's like watching Alvin Kamara in his prime, you know when he gets an edge he's going for a big gain and that will likely be the way they move the ball in this one. He's had 10 carries in each of the playoff games compared to just 3 receptions in each. He had over 90 yards in each of the games against the Rams this year though so obviously likes playing them
Outside of Deebo in the passing game you're looking at Brandon Aiyuk to step up, he's a similar player in terms of yards after catch ability but a little bigger, he could easily top 100 yards if things break well for him, Jauan Jennings had 2 TDs in the season finale against the Rams but has done little after that while Mo Sanu may be returning from injury to add some more depth there. They will be looking to get George Kittle involved more in the passing game, he does well against this opposition with 5 TDs in 9 games against them and he led the team in receiving yards last week against the Packers.
The worry for the 49ers is the health of all-pro left tackle Trent Williams who's struggling with an ankle injury. He'll play but his health will be a concern against a good Rams pass rush.
theathletic.com
The Rams
Things got a little tighter than they should have done for the Rams in Tampa last week as they allowed them to tie the game from a 27-3 lead early in the second half, but the reason they signed Matthew Stafford was his big arm and he quickly got them into field goal range for Matt Gay to kick the winner against his old team.
They went all-in this year and the trade for Matthew Stafford was a big acquisition for them, it was also a big upgrade at the most important position and despite a rough end to the regular-season with interceptions thrown frequently, but he's stepped up when it counts in this playoff run and has got them in with a chance of being back in the SoFi stadium in a couple of weeks. He has kept things clean in the playoffs and they have managed games well enough to get them at the point where he doesn't have to throw 50 times a game and risk turnovers, it does help that he's got the best WR in the league this year.
Cooper Kupp led the league in receptions, yards and receiving TDs scored in the regular season and added another 1 in each game this post-season as well, last week finishing with 183 yards as the Bucs inexplicably left him alone a couple of times and he took advantage. His route-running is up there with Devante Adams and he's proven he can get open whether it's 5 yards down the field or 50. Stafford has the arm-talent to hit him. They lost Robert Woods the week that they brought in Odell Beckham to add to their passing attack. It was a weird set of circumstances but Beckham has shown that he's still got the talent that made him one of the most recognisable players in the league, finishing with a TD in 6 of the 10 games he's played for the Rams.
They have other talents in the pass-catching group as well, rookie Van Jefferson can get open downfield while the tight-end Tyler Higbee has been reliable and had 2 scores in the final regular-season game that the 49ers won. He was averaging 5 catches a game towards the end of the season, that's dropped a little in the post-season and backup Kendall Blanton stole his TD last week from the 1-yard line. Running back Cam Akers is good catching out of the backfield as well and has been involved heavily since his return from injury although 2 yards per carry isn't ideal.
That lack of run-game from him and two fumbles nearly cost them the game last week so I wouldn't be shocked if they used Sony Michel more than once here against the 2nd best run defense in the league.
Bets
Again, I think the line is spot on, I had it at 3, so realistically I would be taking the 49ers getting the hook at 3.5. I do think the Rams are the better team, I think they should win but it will be a close game. I would lean under the total but it's a low one. If I had to I'd say Rams win, 49ers cover and under on the total.
I'm happy to accept that could all be wrong though, when you beat a team 6 times in a row you almost throw the rosters out of the window.
- Robbie Gould o6.5 kicking points – 10/11 (365)
- Aaron Donald o4.5 tackles and assists – 1/1 (PP)
- Mo Sanu anytime – 18/1 (365) – A small look at this, there's a chance he doesn't get a snap, but I'll have a go at the price.
