NBA Finals Game 4 preview: Betting tips, odds and expert predictions

The NBA Finals are headed for Game 4, which will be played at 01:30 AM BST on Thursday morning, once again in New York.

The San Antonio Spurs managed to win Game 3 and get one break back after losing both of the first two games in Texas, keeping their title hopes alive, while the New York Knicks buckled under pressure in their first home game of the series.

Will we see the same in Game 4, or will the Knicks manage to defend their home-court this time? Can I do better than I did with my Game 3 predictions?

Read my NBA Finals Game 4 betting tips, odds, and expert predictions to find that out and to get a detailed New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs preview.

NBA Finals Game 4 predictions

All odds for my NBA Finals Game 4 picks were taken from Paddy Power and are subject to change at any time.

Under 216.5 total points

So, I was wrong about Game 3 being another low-scoring affair between these two teams, but I was also right the first two times and I'm sticking with this for better or worse for Game 4, for which the line is the same as it was for Game 3.

After all, the Knicks and the Spurs have gone under this line three times in a row before Game 3, so it's safe to say that this game was an outlier in what is a pretty clearly low-scoring matchup between two great defensive teams (top 2 in the 2026 playoffs in defensive rating).

Victor Wembanyama under 11.5 total rebounds

The Knicks managed to keep Wemby in single digits for rebounds twice in three games, so they are doing a great job of keeping him off the glass as a team, but credit to KAT and Mitchell Robinson as well.

In any case, Wembanyama is averaging 10.6 rebounds per game in these playoffs, which is already lower than the proposed line, so I wouldn't be surprised if he has another game without hitting double digits for rebounds.

Mikal Bridges over 11.5 total points

Bridges had a couple of poor scoring outputs in this series, scoring just nine points in Game 1 and a pretty appalling two points in Game 3. Given that Bridges averaged 13.8 points per game in these playoffs and that he scored in double-digits in nine games in a row before the finals, those are truly bad numbers, particularly the last one.

In Game 1, Mikal was efficient but only took six shots and in Game 3, he only took five shots. So, the Knicks have to find a way to ensure Bridges takes more shots and it's up to him to be efficient with them like he often is. In any case, with the line set at 11.5 points, I expect Bridges to go over it.

NBA Finals Game 4 preview – team news, injuries, and predicted lineups

New York Knicks preview and latest news

It's often hard playing in New York when the euphoria hits and while I didn't expect this pressure to affect this Knicks team, they couldn't win their first game at home, keeping the Spurs alive in the series.

The Knicks will have to find a way to tune out the noise of Maddison Square Garden, which can often have an adverse effect on the home players due to massive euphoria and great expectations.

Game 3 was a close one, with the Knicks losing by four points, pretty much due to free throws, cause the two teams were pretty much even in FGs made and percentage, including three pointers.

That being said, low scoring outputs by Mikal Bridges and particularly Karl-Anthony Towns hurt the Knicks the most, and both players will have to do better in Game 4. Jalen Brunson once again led the team in scoring with 32 points, although it wasn't a particularly efficient game for him either.

This was the first loss for the Knicks in the 2026 NBA Playoffs after 12 straight wins.

The Knicks are 14-3 in the 2026 NBA Playoffs.

Knicks starting lineup: Brunson, Bridges, Anunoby, Hart, Towns

San Antonio Spurs preview and latest news

The fairytale season for the young San Antonio Spurs team continues and while the Spurs are still behind in the series and still need to get another win on the road to get back the home-court advantage in the NBA Finals, they have shown once again that, despite their youth and inexperience, they can handle the pressure.

Going to New York, to the Maddison Square Garden, while being down 2-0 after losing both home games, would be a tough situation to overcome for most teams, but the Spurs proved they are rightfully already a true NBA title contender.

Victor Wembanyama scored 32 points on 11 of 18 from the field, while also doing great work on the defensive end with two steals and three blocks. The Spurs managed to get him closer to the basket, with Victor only taking four three-pointers in the game.

Stephon Castle also had an efficient 23-point output and the rest of the team did what they needed to do to help the Spurs win. That being said, De'Aaron Fox had another rough night from the field (4-14) and while the Spurs won this game regardless, they need Fox to be better if they are to turn the series around and win the title.

The Spurs are 13-9 in the 2026 NBA Playoffs.

Spurs starting lineup: Fox, Castle, Vassell, Champagnie, Wembanyama

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