Men’s US Open draw and bracket: quarter-by-quarter analysis

We’re only a few days away from the US Open, which will be the final Grand Slam of this year. As you can expect from a Grand Slam, plenty of fantastic tennis will be played, which is why we’re here to analyse the men’s US Open draw quarter-by-quarter ahead of time.

Defending champion Novak Djokovic will return to New York to try and win it again. If he does, it would be a record-setting 25th Grand Slam trophy, something nobody has ever done. Margaret Court sits at 24 right now.

It will also be his first event since the Paris Olympics triumph, so many will want to see how real that performance was. Carlos Alcaraz will be gunning to avenge his Paris Olympics loss and last year’s US Open, which ended in a horrid performance. He has reasons to feel optimistic after dominating the Tour for two months before the Olympics.

Jannik Sinner will be hoping to continue his victorious ways after winning the Cincinnati Open trophy. The Italian will have lots of eyeballs on him in light of his recent doping saga, but we’ll focus on his tennis mostly.

The US Open promises to be quite eventful on and off the court, so let’s waste no time and get into this breakdown of the men’s US Open draw.

Men’s US Open draw analysis – quarter breakdown

First quarter (top seed – Jannik Sinner)

We’re going to start with Jannik Sinner because he is the number one seed and the first player in the draw. 

The first quarter is a pretty fascinating one, with lots of great players in there. Sinner, of course, is the main favourite to be one of the two players in the quarter-finals of this quarter, and it’s mostly because he’s been so good this year.

The Italian has arguably been the best hard court player all year, winning multiple trophies on the surface. He also won the last hard court Slam we had, but we do have to note that he’s never made the semi-final in New York, which is a bit odd. The major obstacles to doing that this year are a couple of players who are with him this quarter.

Sinner is most likely to face Daniil Medvedev in the quarter-final here. The Russian won his only Grand Slam in New York and reached the final last year. He’s also beaten Sinner in their most recent match at Wimbledon, though the Italian has had some really good showings against him on hard courts in the past.

Stefanos Tsisipas is also in this part of this quarter, and he’s likely to face Daniil Medvedev for that quarter-final spot where Sinner will probably wait. Outside of those players, Sinner will mostly have to battle a few Americans as he takes on Mackenzie McDonald in the first round and Alex Michelsen in the second round, most likely. 

Overall, it’s not the most complicated draw for him.

Projected quarter-final: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev

Second quarter (top seed – Carlos Alcaraz)

The second quarter doesn’t lag behind the first in any way because this is the quarter where Carlos Alcaraz is located. 

The Spaniard is one of the favourites for this event as he’s already won it once. He won the last two Grand Slams and will also be eyeing this one, though a few worthy challengers need to be mentioned. First among them will be Denis Shapovalov, who is not on Alcaraz’s level but is still a tricky player to beat.

Jack Draper could be waiting in the third round, and that’s a player who has already beaten Alcaraz this year. It’s a bit different on hard courts, but the Brit has demonstrated himself to be a really strong player in New York with one good run in the past, so Alcaraz will need his best to find a solution there.

The latter part of his quarter doesn’t look too complicated, though some really nice players are in there. Sebastian Korda is one to watch because the American will play at home with heavy crowd support. He also showed a high level in Washington, so he can be quite dangerous. 

Hubert Hurkacz is another player who is quite annoying to play against because he doesn’t allow you to find much rhythm with the short rallies he prefers. 

Overall, it is a pretty interesting quarter, with Alcaraz being by far the best player and likely to come out of it as the top name.

Projected quarter-final: Carlos Alcaraz vs Hubert Hurkacz

Third quarter (top seed – Alexander Zverev)

This next quarter is pretty interesting because on the one hand, we have Casper Ruud, who has played in the US Open final before, and on the other hand, we have Alexander Zverev, who has also played in a US Open final before. 

Being in the final isn’t so much a surprise for Zverev, who has historically played pretty well in New York. 

The serve is a major weapon for him and creates all sorts of problems for his opponents. He’s also just a wall in most rallies, rarely committing errors, which makes it even harder to play against him. The German has adopted a more aggressive style this year, and it’s worked really well. 

He’s certainly favoured coming out of this quarter over Ruud, though he has some land mines in his path. 

Zverev faces Emil Ruusuvuori in the opening round and the Finnish player is a nightmare to play against. He also has Giovanni Mpetschi Perricard early on, another nightmare to play against. 

Overall, it’s only really Holger Rune that might prove to be a really tough challenge and that depends on if he shows up on the day.

Casper Ruud hasn’t been playing great tennis lately, and despite a positive track record here, he’s unlikely to really change those fortunes here. 

Taylor Fritz is a name to watch in his side of the quarter, and I don’t really think Ruud can beat the American in New York. He’s had some really good performances here in the past, but the courts are playing as fast as they have ever played this year, and he won’t like that very much. 

Ruud is unlikely to challenge either Zverev or Fritz here.

Projected quarter-final: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz

Fourth quarter (top seed – Novak Djokovic)

As always, the fourth quarter is the home quarter of the second seed. At this year’s US Open, it’s Novak Djokovic, and he’s going to have a lot of attention on him. 

People want to see whether the Paris Olympics win over Alcaraz was real. We know he can play good tennis, but that was something else: it was the Djokovic of old. We haven’t seen much of this version of him this year, and people will be closely following if it makes an appearance here.

Djokovic is also going to be very motivated in New York because he has a chance to win that 25th Grand Slam, which nobody has ever done. 

However, the Serbian will have some early problems. Alexei Popyrin is a likely third-round match, and he’s been playing superb tennis lately. Ben Shelton is also in his quarter, and that could be a complicated match.

Shelton and Djokovic played a really fascinating one last year in the semi-final, with the American giving Djokovic quite a few problems at times. It’s a surface where these players can hurt him with their massive serves, and the quickness of play might also be a factor. 

Outside of Shelton, Andrey Rublev is the most dangerous opponent.

The Russian has had an odd year. He played super strong tennis at times but has also been pretty bad overall. He generally doesn’t play his best at Grand Slams, and he’s had a tough time against Djokovic. 

Overall, there are some dangers for the Serbian, but he should be able to power through.

Projected quarter-final: Andrey Rublev vs Novak Djokovic

Now that you’ve seen our men’s US Open draw analysis, we’d like to hear your final weekend predictions in the comments below!

🔗 Share on Social Media