EVERY time Benfica reach a European final the line about them being cursed is rolled out.
Seven times the curse has held up but at the eighth attempt I fancy the Portuguese side to beat it.
Benfica return to Turin to face Sevilla having knocked out Juventus in the Turin city last month. Bookies see a close game – and finals usually are – but I can't see past Benfica who are 13-10 with Ladbrokes and Coral to win in 90 minutes.
The Spanish are 9-4 at bet365 while the draw pays 23-10 with Bet365.
Benfica, who lost last season's final to Chelsea, have already lifted the title and the Portuguese League Cup with a domestic cup final to come and it's been a fantastic season for them. They could only manage third in Barcelona's Champions League group but have also knocked out Spurs and AZ on the way to this stage.
Until losing a dead rubber with Porto they had gone 12 matches unbeaten and the way the defeated Juventus in the semi-finals suggests they'll take care of a Spanish side disappointed to miss out on a Champions League place in La Liga.
Sevilla scraped into the Final with an injury-time goal in Valencia after a two-goal lead was overturned and since they haven't scored – 0-0 at home to Villarreal and a 1-0 defeat to Getafe.
Finals are often cagey but half of Benfica’s last 18 matches have gone over 2.5 goals and nine of 16 Europa League finals have gone that way. Over 2.5 goals is the shout at 21-20 with William Hill.
I'll have a look at latest team news in the morning before picking out some scorers but Oscar Cardozo is the 11-2 favourite at McBookie and BetVictor with Lima 6-1.
Recommended Bets
Benfica
(13-10, Ladbrokes, Coral)
Over 2.5 goals
(21-20, William Hill)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Agree that this feels like Benfica’s year. Been following them with increasing confidence all through the qualifying rounds.
Another bet worth considering is the Highest Scoring Half: 2nd @21/20 with BET365 & BetVictor
71.4% of Benfica’s goals in this tournament have been scored in the 2nd half, for Sevilla the less encouraging figure is 52.5%. Both are good at keeping the opposition at bay until well into the 2nd half: Sevilla concede their 1st goal on average on 62 minutes, for Benfica the figure is 64 minutes. The only time I’ve lost money backing the Portuguese in this market for this tournament was the 0-0 2nd leg semifinal in Turin.
Me too. Have gone safe though and 4/6 to lift the trophy. Haven’t lost money on them yet and if they can play well against juventus then Sevilla should be fine.
Benfica have looked very good when they got out from the CL, defend very very well and counter attack very well. Juventus were all over them but they lacked energy(full blame on Conte and his lack of rotation).
I do feel if Juve had pushed with more intent they would have scored and if Seville can do that(and we know they can)it will be a great final. But Benfica have the better defence.
Silvio and Salvio are out though and so is Markovic for having a fight with Vucinic so there are injuries on Benfica’s side.
I guess Silvio has been out for a while. There is a guy who comes on here at times, he is a Benfica fan, perhaps he will put his thoughts on it.
Agreed mr Napoli and after that German performance where realistically they were never going to lose but lacked fire power I can’t stand another nil nil! And lose the mr f daily double. Can’t fault mr f at all but just annoying that Germany didn’t want it enough. Bet you in the World Cup if you back against them when they are at full strength. We’ll we all know what happens then.
Europa League has been dire so hoping for a decent Final. BTTS and Benfica win at 7/2
Don’t see how its been dire, some great ties. Valencia coming back from 3-0 down v Basel to qualify, Sevilla v Valencia was a classic with Sevilla going through with the last kick of the ball, pure drama.
Both Europa League semi finals were in the balance in stoppage time, compare that to the Champions League.
Oor man in Napoli, Silvio broke his leg about a month ago against AZ Alkmaar. Quality full back and would been called by Paulo Bento to the world cup which is a shame.
Regarding Markovic, he shouldn’t have been given a red card. The scrap was between Vucinic and Artur (goalkeeper). Markovic was just trying to calm Vucinic down as they are friends and the Juve player confirmed this and is a witness on the case to be decided by Uefa today.
Whatever the decision the manager is setting up the team not counting with Markovic (which is the smart thing to do), Salvio & Enzo Perez – 3 important players out.
My quick view on the game and trying not to listen to my heart is that both teams will score but we may just edge it. You’re spot on about our defence being good but bound to concede if pushed.
My prediction is Benfica win 2-1 in the 90mins
Thanks for the info Eagle, all the best for your team tonight
Sevilla don’t have a chance. Benfica to win @ 7/5 is generous.
I have to suggest Garay as an anytime scorer i took him at 18 /1 on weekend for this and he is now 8/1 with william hill.
Garay is benfica defender and is a major threat at set pieces he has scored twice in 7 matches and in the competition and has scored 6 goals in 26 games in the league
He is a defender worth playing for the anytime value
The player for Sevilla i do like a lot is carlos Bacca the striker who will star for Colombia in world cup. he has scored 4 goals in 12 matches and @ 7/4 anytime is a nice price.
I’m not 100% Bacca will start so check team news
Benfica to win by 1 goal @ 3/1 for me.
Looks like being a tight game but Ive been impressed at the way Benfica disposed of favs Juve in the last round.
Lima 1st gl 7/1 @Ladbrokes
My instincts are all with Sevilla tonight with Benficas suspensions an injures. Also watching them this season they can really turn it on as can Benfica but there not at full strentgh.
Was hoping ponys would treat me well today but not so far(stag do funds gettin low)
For a bit more value than just Sevilla win
Rakitic anytime Seviilla win :P
*predictive text
Hi All,
Have great joy to date in one of finals taking the -1 goal handicap. See Benfica as pacey and if leading by one goal and other team pushed. They could counter from half way line and extend a lead.
Tempted Benfica -1 goal @ 4.5 for £10.
The defender called giraffe, had him to score v Spurs and scored two and doubled odds. So passion and not logic. Few pounds when i find his name.
:)
Rakitic and Gameiro will both be missing the game through illness – Bet on Benfica before the news is announced. My cousin is a reporter in Turin and has just leaked the news to me!
Good luck!
Beto,
Coke, Pareja, Fazio, Alberto,
Carriço, Mbia,
Reyes, Rakitic, Vitolo,
Bacca
Gameiro will probably dodge on at some point in this game
Crazee bet Mbia to score anytime 14/1
Odds drifting,Benfica 2.5 at 365 was 2.27 earlier. so value or has something changed ?
Fancy Benfica but money went other way ?
Seville to win the trophy 13/10.
BTTS and overs is a tempting price.
Get the feeling the ‘curse’ might strike again, Benfica caught sneaking holy water in the sprinklers.
Damo, I just think Seville play in a stronger league and are capable of winning the trophy.
cool both score 2.4 now 365, tasty 40 on
Garay is so unlucky really had several opportunities I like to know if my anytime for him scoring counts for extra time … Same with bacca who shud have just scored
16/1 both teams to score in 2nd half extra time 15 mins left worth a cheeky pound with the attackers on.