Handicap betting in tennis is arguably one of the most effective ways to wager on the sport, though it does have its drawbacks. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll break down everything you need to know about tennis handicap betting, so you can enhance your betting strategy and increase your chances of success.
Why choose tennis handicap betting?
When it comes to tennis betting, the structure of the odds often makes betting on outright winners less appealing. While occasionally, you might find a great value bet, more often than not, if a player is even slightly favoured to win a match, the odds will be quite low. This is why bettors often resort to alternative strategies, bringing creativity into play to find value.
One such strategy is handicap betting. Handicap betting introduces an arbitrary number of sets or games added to a player’s total, which is then compared to the other player’s total. For example, if you have Novak Djokovic with a -1.5 sets handicap, he must win the match by at least two sets for the bet to be successful, as the 1.5 sets are subtracted from his total.
If Djokovic wins 3-1, his total with the handicap becomes 1.5 sets, which would be compared to his opponent’s one set, resulting in a winning bet. Conversely, if his opponent wins two sets, the bet would lose because 1.5 sets are less than two. This same principle applies to games.
Types of tennis handicap bets
There are several types of handicap bets you can make in tennis, each offering different ways to approach the match:
1. Set handicap betting
Set handicap betting involves assigning a handicap to the number of sets a player will win in a match. As mentioned earlier, if a player is given a -1.5 sets handicap, they must win the match by at least two sets for the bet to be successful. This type of betting is particularly useful in best-of-three or best-of-five set matches where one player is significantly stronger than the other.
2. Game handicap betting
Game handicap betting is similar to set handicap betting but applies to the total number of games won in a match. In this case, the margin is usually higher. You might see handicaps of 4.5, 5.5, or even 6.5 games. For example, if a player has a -5.5 games handicap, they need to win at least six more games than their opponent for the bet to succeed.
Game handicap betting is a popular choice because it provides more flexibility. Even if the underdog wins a set, the favourite can still cover the handicap by dominating the other sets.
How to succeed in tennis handicap betting
To succeed in handicap betting, you need a deep understanding of the sport, the players, and the specific nuances of tennis. The better you know the sport, the more likely you are to make educated bets.
1. Understanding player form and style
One of the most critical factors in handicap betting is understanding the current form and playing style of the players involved. For example, a player who is known for their consistency and mental toughness is less likely to drop sets or games unnecessarily, making them a safer bet for a negative handicap.
Conversely, players who are known for inconsistency or mental lapses may struggle to cover a handicap, making them riskier bets.
2. Surface and conditions
The playing surface can significantly impact the outcome of handicap bets. Faster surfaces like grass tend to favour big servers, making game handicap betting more viable, while slower surfaces like clay can lead to longer rallies and closer matches, making set handicap betting more attractive.
Additionally, weather conditions, such as wind or heat, can also affect player performance and should be considered when placing handicap bets.
3. Analysing match-ups
Analysing head-to-head records and recent match-ups between players can provide valuable insights into how a match might unfold. Some players have a psychological edge over certain opponents, which can influence the match’s outcome and the likelihood of a handicap bet hitting.
For example, if a player consistently struggles against a particular opponent, it might be wise to avoid betting on them to cover a handicap.
4. Patience and timing
Handicap betting requires patience and timing. Not every match offers a good handicap betting opportunity.
You need to wait for the right moment when the odds are in your favour. This might mean skipping several matches until you find one where the handicap line offers value based on your analysis. When you do spot a good line, act quickly, as odds can shift rapidly.
Negatives of handicap betting in tennis
While handicap betting can be highly profitable, it’s not without its risks. One of the biggest drawbacks is the unpredictability of tennis matches. Even the most favoured players can have off days, leading to unexpected losses or closer matches than anticipated.
1. Risk of meltdowns
One of the dangers of handicap betting is that even top players can suffer from mental lapses or meltdowns.
A player might start strong but then lose focus, dropping a set or even several games unexpectedly. This can quickly ruin a handicap bet, especially if you’ve bet on a large margin.
2. Unpredictable Outcomes
Tennis is a sport where momentum can shift quickly. A player might dominate the first set only to struggle in the second.
This unpredictability makes handicap betting particularly challenging. While it’s less common, there are instances where a heavy favourite might lose the first set or face a tough battle, making it difficult to cover a large handicap.
Best tennis handicap betting strategy
Overall, handicap betting in tennis is one of the most exciting and potentially profitable ways to bet on the sport. It allows bettors to find value in matches where the outright odds offer little return.
However, success in handicap betting requires a deep understanding of the sport, careful analysis of players and match-ups, and a strategic approach to selecting bets.
While it’s not a foolproof strategy, with the right knowledge and discipline, handicap betting can be a valuable tool in your tennis betting arsenal. As we move into 2024, mastering the nuances of handicap betting will be key to staying ahead of the game and maximising your profits.
