MAN CITY go into tonight's clash at Aston Villa 15 points adrift of Man United but the gap should be cut by three at the end of the game.
It's one of those games where you can't see anything other than away win but best price is no bigger than 8-15 at the likes of Paddy Power, William Hill and Coral.
So for better value you have to look elsewhere and City should cover the minus one handicap at 13-10 with Paddy Power. Villa have improved slightly and since crashing out of the Capital One Cup to Bradford haven't lost by more than a goal – and beaten West Ham and drawn at Everton.
City/City HT/FT is also worth a look at 5-4 but with BetVictor or at a bigger price how about City at 14-5 with Ladbrokes to win both halves.
City thrashed Paul Lambert's men 5-0 at the Etihad and have quality players who can really hurt signs of weakness in defence. The Villa kids could be spooked by the likes of Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez who are 7-2 and 4-1 respectively to score first almost across the board.
But I backed Yaya Toure to strike against Chelsea in his last outing and he had an impressive scoring performance. Toure is a huge player for Roberto Mancini's men and is worth a look at 5-2 with BetVictor and Paddy Power to score at anytime. For first goal he is 17-2 with bet365.
Villa are as big as 13-2 at bet365 and the draw is 18-5 at BetVictor but City, with three clean sheets out of four in the Premier League, would need to have a real off day not to win.
There is a chance Villa will score as there last six have seen both on target and have decent forward players such as Christian Benteke who has netted six in six games and Andreas Weimann. Benteke is decently-priced at 11-4 with Coral to score.
There is one game in La Liga and Sevilla should beat Celta Vigo but again are no bigger than 8-15 with Ladbrokes. Sevilla will be concentrating on the league after losing to Atletico Madrid in the Copa del rey semi-finals and have been strong at home with eight wins in nine.
Celta are struggling to avoid the drop and have won just once away from home this season but the fixture has a history of low scorers. It's been no to both teams to score in the last meetings, with five of them finishing 1-0 – four to the visitors.
So best bet could be under 2.5 goals at 11-10 with Paddy Power while 1-0 Sevilla pays 7-1 at BetVictor. It looks a 1-0 or 2-0 and Celta have conceded exactly one goal in five of their last six outings.
I'm on a Man City/Sevilla double and on a quiet night if you wanted to a third team it could be Braga at struggling Olhanense in Portugal. Braga's poor away record puts off me off a bit but they need the points – as do their relegation-haunted rivals. Could be a tight win for Braga and treble pays £39.70 to a £10 stake at Coral.
However, I'm happy withthe double and it really should come ine and give us some spending power for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Recommendations
Man City/Sevilla double
Pays a best £23.40 to a £10 stake at Paddy Power
Man City -1
(13-10, Paddy Power)
Man City to win both halves
(14-5, Ladbrokes)
Toure to score
(5-2, BetVictor, Paddy Power)
Under 2.5 goals at Sevilla
(11-10, Paddy Power)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Treble Homes – MaccabiHaifa – Verona – Sevilla
Treble Aways – Erciyesspor – Braunschweig – Braga
Single – Leece
Both 2 Score Treble
Lens-Nantes
Guimaraes-Academica
Kaimpasa-Trabzonspor
MONDAY 4TH MARCH 2013
———————–
Aston Villa v Manchester City, Monday 20:00, Sky Sports 1
Man City have scored four or more goals in three of their last five league games against Aston Villa
Man City put five past Aston Villa without reply in the Premier League back in November in what remains the champions most emphatic victory during this title defence. In fact, they’ve only scored as many as four in the league on one other occasion this season, in contrast to doling out half-dozens against Norwich and Manchester United in 2011/12 and registering four or more on six other instances. Six goals in their last two outings, albeit four arrived against Leeds in the FA Cup, suggest Man City are close to returning to their free-scoring best. Chelsea, who put eight past Villa at Stamford Bridge, are yet to make the return trip, though other top-six sides Man United, Tottenham and Everton all put at least three past Paul Lambert’s side in the midlands.
Back Man City to score three or more goals @ 2.88
Manchester City to win to nil @ 2.45
Manchester City half-time/full-time @ 2.3
Manchester City to win 0-3 @ 12.5 / 0-4 @ 20.0
Sergio Aguero first GoalScorer @ 5.6
Sergio Aguero Anytime @ 2.32
—————————————–
Milesey
HOME and AWAY
DOUBLE
—————-
Cambuur (HOME) @ 1.68
Eintracht Braunschwieg (AWAY) @ 2.3
—————————————
Milesey
TIP OF THE DAY
————–
Both teams have scored in each of Emmen’s last five Eerstedivisie home games and all of Excelsior’s most recent eight away matches.
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.6 in Emmen v Excelsior
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
looking for a bit of value in the 4 Dutch Jupiler games as you all know the games produce plenty of goals but the odds are short for the btts and over 2.5 so I looked at over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half of all 4 games looks no bad at 8/1 and another bet that caught my eye over 1.5 first half goals in all 4 games pays 30/1 got to be worth a few quid
Danny, in the past few weeks one game has let us down. It’s leaving at the right one that’s the problem.
MAN CITY go into tonight’s clash at Aston Villa 15 points adrift of Man United but the gap should be cut to three by the end of the game.
12 points for a man city win?, lol
typo error paul(cut by 3) lol
Drew, yeah it was late. I’ll sort it thanks.
Thats some price for Man C to win in both halfs!
Stevie, it’s to win both halves remember, not HT/FT.
i know very little baout greyhound racing but iv had a tip for Underground Paul at the 4.27 at mommore best priced at 3-1 william hill.
Steven, u r welcome to post tips here and let people decide. I don’t bet on dogs so can’t comment on the selection.
Man City to score in both halves
Toure anytime
Can’t help but think city must be getting a little demoralised that the gap with utd shows no sign of diminishing. Don’t think staying ahead of spurs and chelsea is on their mind either. They should win this match at a canter but with villa scrapping for their lives this match has more of a cup tie feel for me and with city minds possibly off the ball villa might just nick something. I won’t be betting on it but will be watching with interest! Good luck to those playing on it.
Mr F do u think city might down tools cos they arnt gonna win the league anymore? It’s the only thing that might stop me putin them on, slightly worried abt the attitude of the players bt then again if there nt careful they cld lose 2nd place.
Stephen, I don’t think they’ll down tools yet.
This game could be closer than some are predicting,Villa have everything to play for whilst in all honesty all city have is to consolidate their possition in 2nd as the title is out of reach.
Villa have recently put in a big effort in some of the ”bigger games” they got a 2-2 draw in the derby at West Brom in January and a 3-3 draw at Everton in February.
They have only failed to score on 1 occasion since the New year 12 games all comps,so BTTS has a great chance odds around 8/11.
Im forecasting a tight game so that brings in the draw at odds of around 3/1.
Another bet that intersets me is the Villa draw no bet at great odds of around 4/1. Good luck with your bets and you can thank me later :)
yeah think Ive jumped the gun on that one, still a decent price although Villa will try to keep it tight for as long as possible. City this season havent blew me away (despite their league position)
Can’t argue with the City/ Seville Double!
Nothing really jumps out in the European games other than the Dutch games!
Verona v Padova Over 2.5 goals is 11/10
City
Sevilla
Braunschweig
Cambuur
Emmen BTTS
Works out at 10/1
I’m on the Emmen-Excelsior BTTS too. For a change, my selection has not been postponed!
Quiet day on betting front hills offering yaya toure anytime wincast 7/2 ill take that, yesturday they did bale wincast 4/1 which I took advantage off so playing with their money which is always a nice feeling, also gonna chance all 4 games in the dutch Jupiter league bts.
good luck to everyone
Yaya Toure 1st goal
Yaya Toure win cast
That will do me tonight
forgot the Dutch 2nd div games were on, im going for City ht/ft and all the games btts
MONDAY 4TH MARCH 2013
———————–
ASTON VILLA V MANCHESTER CITY
Back Man City to score three or more goals @ 2.88
Manchester City to win to nil @ 2.45
Manchester City half-time/full-time @ 2.3
Manchester City to win 0-3 @ 12.5 / 0-4 @ 20.0
Sergio Aguero first GoalScorer @ 5.6
Sergio Aguero Anytime @ 2.32
—————————————–
HOME and AWAY
DOUBLE
—————-
Cambuur (HOME) @ 1.68
Eintracht Braunschwieg (AWAY) @ 2.3
—————————————–
TIP OF THE DAY
————–
Both teams have scored in each of Emmen’s last five Eerstedivisie home games and all of Excelsior’s most recent eight away matches.
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.6 in Emmen v Excelsior
—————————————–
TUESDAY 5TH MARCH 2013
———-
Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Tue 19:45 BST, Live on Sky Sports 2
Match Odds: Dortmund 1.65, Shakhtar 6.0, the draw 4.3
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.5
Back Borussia Dortmund -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.02
———————–
Manchester United v Real Madrid, Tuesday 7:45, ITV 1.
Match Odds: Manchester United 3.25, Real Madrid 2.34, The Draw 3.7.
Back Ronaldo to score at 2.4
Back a half-time 0-0 at 3.75
————————-
Crystal Palace 2.3 v Hull 3.6; The Draw 3.4
Back Crystal Palace to win @ 2.3
Nottingham Forest 1.95 v Ipswich 4.4; The Draw 3.8
Back Nottm Forest to win @ 1.95
—————————
Milesey
I’m on Benteke anytime scorer at 11/4.
looking for a repeat of last mondays game over 2.5 goals & over 12 corners 5/2 @ hills
MCFC XI: Hart, Zabaleta, Kolo Toure, Nastasic, Clichy, Garcia, Milner, Rodwell, Silva, Tevez, Yaya Toure.
Aston Villa XI: Guzan; Lowton, Clark, Baker, Bennett; Westwood, Delph, N’Zogbia; Agbonlahor, Weimann, Benteke.
Fancy Rodwell first goal @ 11/1 … Looked lively against Chelsea and Villa are bad at conceding from set pieces and headers. Got him anytime too.
I’ll be on Man Utd to qualify against madrid ( spits ) at 11/10,the reds will go marching on,plus the fact the bookies have forgot united are in fantastic form,im liking the 2/1 on offer to win on the night.Prettty sure they havent been beat since the titanic sank or thereabouts.
Sean, both sides are in good form. I’ll put up my tips in the morning but it’s really hard to call and difficult to ignore Real’s two wins over Barca.
Real to qualify for me..cant see MU keeping a clean sheet and they don’t have Ronaldo either.
Guido, I hope you are wrong as I have just paid £350 for a ticket to the game! United to qualify at EVS is what is hopefully paying for my ticket!! Rooney or RVP 1st goal both at 5’s and Utd HT/FT at 6’s and I will be in heaven!!!
COME ON UNITED!!!
F&%$in hell Muzza..£350 notes!!!!….u must be winning sh&tloads lately?? ;-) Er, yeah, sorry but I really fancy RM to progress, Ronaldo and a few others on fire and their confidence must be sky high..so quick on the counter. Good luck for u of course/not a supporter of either club/neutral. Prob wont see any of it be on Inverness/Glesca train at time. Planning getting the clubs oot on Sun?..decorating M in Laws living room on Sat ;-( so depending how I progress with that. U got the clubs oot yet?
Guido – not winning feck all recently as it happens been a terrible 2 weeks! Although I would have won the lads comp if I hadn’t been fed some duff advice (and had known 1 of my pals had cheated!! – long story!!)
Anyway my heart says united my head says it could be anyone’s game. Being built up as the game of the season so lets hope it’s not a damp squib. Main reason I want to be there is to celebrate Giggsy’s 1000th game.
On a positive note Ronaldo always flopped for us on the big occasion so lets hope his emotions get the better of him tomorrow night………..
Mr F £55 for a season ticket??!! That must be some class footy at the Bankies!!
I took my 9 year old to Old Trafford on Saturday in my pals seats right near Fergie and we were on the TV twice plus RVP gave her his juice bottle at the end and I got to shake his and Sir Alex hand. I didn’t realise but “Stato” off the TV years ago sits right behind the dugout every game nipping Fergies ear!!
Muzza, I don’t want to reinvent the lookalike thread but Statto is another the guys in the work tried to compare me to. I actually interviewed him for a piece on sports betting for the Record a few years ago and he was really decent. The sports editor at the time wanted me to do the interview in my PJs but thankfully I resisted.
Mr F – you could be Stato’s son!! As well as Roland Brownings brother hahahahaha
I have heard he is a good guy. He must do Fergies head in cos he never shuts up and he is right behind him – you look next time you see a game. Stato must be a good 3-4 stone lighter these days though
Muzza, have never noticed him. I’m 3-4 pound lighter but admin refuse to change my pic.
Hahahahaha nice 1 Mr F!
Search google images “stato at old Trafford” & it pops right up
Mr F! i cant belive your going against the might man utd, i admit madrid looked good in the last couple of games. They played on the break against barca at the camp nou but i think utd will pack the midfield and play a little more defensive than they do in the PL. I know they dont look great at the back when NV and RF dont play but i am red and therefore totaly un baised :D
Dave, as I said sleeping on it. I can make arguments for both to win but just have a feeling Real will score at least two and that could be enough.
Muzza, my season ticket cost £55 and I get to watch Viniesta! I hope you pay for your ticket for your sake but my head’s telling me Madrid to qualify and I’d need convincing otherwise.
55 quid??..are u serious Paul?………I thot Bankies were paying folk to turn up to watch not the other way about?? :-)
Guido, best £55 I’ve ever spent although we’ve not tested the keeper last two games.
Sorry Rodwell is 16/1 at Betfred. DD/HH too incase he bags a brace haha
Shamrock Rovers – v Linfield Shamrock RoversMatch Result 1/2
..Sligo Rovers – v Glentoran Over 2.5 GoalsOver/Under Total Goals 2.5 6/10
..Aston Villa – v Man City Man CityMatch Result 4/9
..Sevilla – v Celta Vigo SevillaMatch Result 1/2
bet for this evening gl all
“Sergio Aguero first GoalScorer @ 5.6”
Anybody know why no Aguero ? not even on the bench ?
going to change my bets to TEVEZ, 1st goalscorer and anytime now ;)
Milesey
MONDAY 4TH MARCH 2013
———————–
ASTON VILLA V MANCHESTER CITY
Back Man City to score three or more goals @ 2.88
Manchester City to win to nil @ 2.45
Manchester City half-time/full-time @ 2.3
Manchester City to win 0-3 @ 12.5 / 0-4 @ 20.0
Carlos Tevez first GoalScorer @ 5.2
Carlos Tevez Anytime @ 2.14
Milesey
Milesey have you been inspired by CG and have started to name FGS etc??? ;-) ;-)
Milesey, confirmed as picking up a knee injury in training yesterday. Tevez will be a threat of course but I’ve gone with Toure.
TEVEZ ;) ;)
Milesey
Anyone thats backed Eintracht Braunschweig tonite,dont hold your breath. However that shower of shite got to the top of the league is a mystery.Another bet about to go tits up !
Fathead vents his disappointment at a perceived below par flat first performance by Eintracht Braunsweig :-)
Picked up a knee injury in their last training session Milesy. Fancied him myself tonight.
Aguero not fit, SSN said something about a knock picked up during last game I think.
Tbl tomo palace forest burnley
F’ing typical! Wouldn’t of cared if his leg flew off if that shot went in. He’s just another Diaby.
If I even dream about backing Eintracht Braunshite again someone please come up to Wigan and nail my pelvis to a cake stand !
Fathead, I reckon people would pay to see that. Oh well Tevez goal keeps some of my bets alive – Man City HT/FT and Man City to win both halves.
TIP OF THE DAY
————–
Both teams have scored in each of Emmen’s last five Eerstedivisie home games and all of Excelsior’s most recent eight away matches.
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.6 in Emmen v Excelsior
* W I N N E R *
Milesey
I bet Craig was pleased to see that goal go in!
Muzza, yeah he’ll be happy with the start.
Hahahahahahaha FATHEAD I almost spirted a small stream of piss when I read your comment! Hahahahaha
Tevez scores..Milesey wants to take over CG’s first scorer mantle! :-)
Why don’t i listen ? instead i picked it as a home win and Cambuur lost 3-1
Milesey
——————————
Cambuur are currently seventh in the Jupiler League but they have three or four games in hand over their rivals. Were they to pick up maximum points, they’d be just two points off top spot in second, with a real chance of winning promotion to the top flight.
Those matches need winning though and that’s something they failed to do last time out at home to Den Bosch. The game finished 0-0 and it was the fourth time in six fixtures in all competitions that Alfons Arts had failed to get the job done. Cambuur had previously lost in the cup at Den Bosch, lost at Sparta Rotterdam and been held by Volendam on home soil. Victories against MVV and Eindhoven kept them in with an outside chance of winning the title but there are still some doubts over their current form.
Veendam are 10th in the league with 29 points, which is much better than last year when they finished 16th. They come into this match without a win in three, but they did hold fifth placed, De Graafschap and the losses were to top four sides.
Gert Heerkes’ men were dire on the road last term and they began in a similar fashion this season by losing their first three games. Since then though they have completely turned things around, winning three, drawing three and losing just one. The Black Yellow Angels even kept two clean sheets during that period, which is a rare feat for this league, and they restricted the opposition to just a single goal on three occasions, which again, is fairly impressive.
The last two meetings between this pair have been 1-1 draws and I wouldn’t rule out a third this evening. That’s why with Cambuur trading as low as 1.68 I have to make them my lay of the day.
Lay Cambuur v Veendam @ 1.68
I really hope man utd vs real Madrid btts comes in, last game in my 5 fold
Striker, I can’t see RM not scoring and Man Utd should score too. Has the feel of a high scorer but nerves could play a part.
0-0 for the first half, for neither team is going to want to take any risks ;) ;)
Milesey
Striker, surely if you have 4 up already in BTTS then you just back both not to score in the MU v RM game as it is 15/8 to cover yourself??
@ Muzza, yep already covered my stake with No to BTTS, but would rather lose that and have the five fold came in :)
Negredo to score next goal? His on a hattrick.
Badham, been watching Villa so can’t say. Will take the dog out as soon as Man City’s over and hope Sevilla hang on for my double.
Cheers mr F, here’s hoping! It’s gonna be an exciting game
any tips for south america tonight guido? If not I’ll have to stick my tevez money on the NBA again, Heat game to go under, Hornets game to go over
Weordie, probably a home win for Velez, 4/7…but they were unlucky in a home loss against Independiente/dominated the match and have had a good win away at Penarol last Tues and sit top of their Copa Lib. group. San Martin have drawn all 3 games tho so could possibly get a point. If I were offered a free bet and keep the winnings I’d have to go for Velez who I think are one of the best/consistent Argie teams for a good few years now along with possibly Lanus this season who I fancy to win the league just ahead of Velez
Anyone fancy Eintracht Brunshite at home to Kaiserslauten next Monday ? I’ll send the men in white coats round asap.
Cheers Guido, might get on that then
Ach not any great revelations there Weordie, but 4/7 winner is always better than a 5/1 r/up!! :-)
I stopped watching Argentinian football in 2007 (when they stopped showing it on c4) so any insight is worthy insight mate. Saves me lumping it all on NBA too.
looks like the doubles safe Paul 4-1 Sevilla…..nice 5/4 shot cheers :-)
Guido, it’s not a big double but it’s a winning one.
Winners are the business we’re in Paul :-)
4-1 Paul think its up ha… Typical Negredo got their 4th.
Rolaaaaaaaaand Browning Muzza hahahaha :-) :-)
phew :) gonna be a nervy wk if tonights anything to go by. lost £150 -1 and verona but if braga hold out I’ll be in profit for today plus midwk acca still on the go. villa had a good shout for pen too at the end
Craig, Toure hit the post late on too and Villa keeper kept the score down.
Craig, will be updated at midnight. I’m also waiting on Braga.
Does nobody think if giggs plays 2morow it will be like man u starting with 10 men? I think so as he is not god enough now to play at CL level.
Alex, don’t know if he’ll start but that’s unfair on Giggs.
Alex, giggs is unlikely to start but he is a great addition from he bench – did you watch he 1st leg? He created 3 chances when he came on in last 25 mins.
All in a nights work Craig. Do west Lothian proud lad LOL! Thought Aston villa held there own at times, but quality prevailed I suppose.
Hope you’s had a good night gents, roll on tomorrow though – winnings from Dundee united will hopefully turn into more notes :-)
Paul I hear bankies doing a fundraiser this weekend? Night with guest speaker or something, will you be there?
Seamus, yeah I’m going along. Sportman’s Dinner at Clydebank Golf Club on Saturday so should be a good night – even though Tam Cowan’s one of the speakers (only kidding, Tam). Is a sell-out but I can get my hands on a few tickets if anyone’s interested. £35 a pop and I’ll buy you a few drinks.
Not good enough to play at this level now mr f. Ok for your PL games against the readings and qpr but no way to play real madrid! Will be very very surprised if he plays at all.
Surely not for real Alex lad? Giggs is unreal, doesn’t have the legs; has a superb reading, and understanding of the game though. i agree he wint start but man down is ludicrous personally.
Absolute role model to the modern game, and off the pitch – Imogen Thomas. Clearly has incredible stamina even at the age of 39 LOL
And I am not a united fan
Alex – Giggsy is a machine and will play on into his 40’s at he top level. I watch him live regularly and although he is not as quick as he was at 17 he still has an amazing turn of pace. United don’t extend contracts willy nilly no matter who you are!!
Here here muzza
I just think fergie will wait till the wkend to give him his big day! Any way real to win 3-1 for me. 16to1. 1-1 at half time then counter attacking by madrid in the 2nd half!
Alex, if he was going to do that do you not think he might have played him against Norwich??? DOH!!
Typical brainless Scouser – think you know football and you know F All!! :-)
That shows you muzza how much you know about football. Machine my arse. Am telling you now play giggs at any time 2morow and your tea is out! Will be a long time till you lot get 5! Will be a long time till you get 4!
Won’t be long till we get 20 though will it Alex??? Hahahahahahaha
Gerrard would love just 1 of GIGGsys 12 PL medals……….. Night night! :-):-):-)
City / Seville an Emmen tonight for a nice 4/1 treble! Good pot for tomorrow!
seen toure hit the post paul then offside gl but was watching it on ma phone and trying to watch mayday on bbc1 and missed some of match, braga win 1-0 so happy to be in profit after day 1, and still gt ma ‘silly’ 5fold running :)
seamus I’ll try ma best but no promising haha
striker think btts the mora is a cert, should be plenty goals but covering ursel is the best way to go just incase its one of those games ie germany v holland 0-0. plus get to watch it on cooncil tele :)
Mr f, I’m not having a go at you mate just a bit of banter ;)
Dave, I know, I didn’t say anything about you having a go at me. It’s all about opinion and I can see punters being split down the middle regarding United and Real Madrid. You can’t ignore the fact they took Barca apart twice and look a decent side on the counter-attack. But as someone said earlier it could be all about how Ronaldo handles the occasion. And I’ll say again I still haven’t put up my tips for the game.
Lol only reason I heard about it Paul was my gaffer! Tim through and through. He’s from Clydebank, said he was going. Plays plenty golf up your end etc, but mentioned he was going. Fair pant supporting home club. Said he knew you too LOL
Seamus, tell him to say hello then if he spots me.
Paul free drink sounds good bit with my gaffer there? You would be accessory to assault, filling me with alcohol I would kill him! Lol
100/1 Paul smashes my gaffer.
Conditions
Maximum £10 stake
Must be blood
No splitting winnings between offender and victim
Last bit not least, fish tank of the victim must be pissed on by offender to pick up winnings on full; otherwise could be a void; at discretion on bookie
Super single surely ?!
Seamus, you really don’t like that guy Brendan then.
Guido cheers for the info, put them on a coupon with the miami heat game to go under, hornets game over and portland game over. did trebles and a fourfold (£3 each) and got £106 back. makes up for all the losses over the weekend for me.
Lol only joking tbh Paul.
He’s not to bad a gaffer, and a tim – a lot worse out there!