Wednesday’s Racing Tips – Old boy Orbaan can put youngsters to shame at Beverley

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Rizzel managed to land a winner for us in the shape of Almudena who was given a lovely ride by jockey Luke Morris.  

It was a case of seconditus for me yesterday, and I was disappointed to not come away with at least one winning selection, In particular Ahlain who I thought would get up on the line in the final furlong. Wednesday is a slightly busier day of racing compared to yesterday, and it doesn't look all that bad in terms of quality.

Cairnzy's Tips

Orbaan 5/2 – Beverley 4:15

This is the third time now I will have put Orbaan up as a selection on the thread, once during the Glorious Goodwood festival and the other was a couple of days ago when he was a non-runner. He carries top weight in this contest which is never ideal but the drop back in trip to 7f on a stiff course like Beverley should be right up his street and if able to reproduce his effort at Glorious Goodwood before being denied a run then he should be bang there at the finish in this contest.

I tipped Orbaan up at Glorious Goodwood recently, and he traveled like a good thing for the entire race. He was denied a run against the rail under jockey Silvestre De Sousa and he ended up finishing down the field as a result as De Sousa eased him off. This race represents a drop in class for Orbaan who drops down into a Class 4 and with only seven runners going to post, Orbaan should have no problem in encountering traffic during the race. Orbaan comes here as the oldest horse in the lineup at the age of 9, which could be a worry in some peoples eyes as he could find himself vulnerable to younger and less exposed horses. The age gap doesn't bother me as Orbaan has shown that even at the age of 9 he still holds plenty of ability in the old legs.

My selection returned to winning ways at Carlisle three starts back, before finishing fourth over the same C&D two weeks later. As already mentioned, I think you can easily forgive Orbaan for his recent performance at Glorious Goodwood. I stand by what I said in my analysis after the race that I think he would have gone close if given a clear passage. He was traveling well on the bridle into the business end and If it wasn't for getting stuck behind a wall of horses I truly believe he would have been bang there.

Nascimento 5/2 – Sailsbury 3:00

I scratched my head for a good 20mins when studying this race, as I found it extremely hard to choose between the current market leader Shout, and my selection Nascimento. The current market doesn't tell you a whole lot either, with Shout slightly shading favoritism at 2/1 ahead of Nascimento who is marked up at 5/2.

I can partly see why Shout is favorite for this race, and the booking of Ryan Moore can swing the market more times than most when he's on board any horse. Shout did well to finish fifth on debut given he fluffed the start and also ran quite keenly throughout that contest. He very much learned on the job on debut and when the penny somewhat dropped he made up some nice ground to lose out by just under three lengths. Shout was then sent of favourite at this course next time out under jockey Oisin Murphy and he made all from start to finish to win by a length and a half. He was made to work all the way to the line that day and although the form has been boosted with the second winning a nursery next time out, I still feel Nascimento has the scope to get the upper hand on him in this contest.

Similar to Shout, my selection has also only ran the two times so far in his career, with his debut run resulting in a third place finish under jockey Ryan Moore. His debut run came in a Class 2 novice contest at Yarmouth which saw him finish a length and a half back in third of the winner Age Of Gold. Age Of Gold was relatively fancied for the Chesham Stakes, but could only manage a midpack finish in that contest, a race that was eventually won by the impressive Bedtime Story. I wouldn't knock the form on the back of Age Of Gold's Chesham effort, most horses finished miles of Bedtime Story that day, with the second finishing 9L of the winner.

Nascimento was then thrown into the deep end on his following outing when contesting in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. The Coventry Stakes was a strange ol race, throwing up a shock 80/1 winner in the shape of Rashbar, but you can only assume connections hold Nascimento in some sort of regard if they thought he was worth a crack at that calibre of race. Don't get me wrong, he wasn't fancied that day in the market, but neither was the winner and there were plenty of positives to take from the performance from Nascimento who ended up finishing in midpack but only three and a half lengths of the winner. He was ridden cold out the back by Jamie Spencer that day and made up some lovely ground from off the pace when laying down his challenge from the rear. I personally thought it was a cracking effort, and he didn't finish far of some other top horses who have since ran well in their following outings. Cowardofthecounty is one that springs to mind, that one was only two places ahead of Nascimento and has since gone on to win a Group 3 at Deauville at the weekend.

I fully expect Shout to go forward under Ryan Moore in this contest, which I'm hoping will set up nicely for Nascimento who I expect to be ridden of the pace by Jamie Spencer again. Spencer isn't everyone's cup of tea, but he's one of the best in the business at riding a horse cold and sweeping through the pack to win late on. When he gets it right it's top drawer, but when he doesn't, well.. you know the rest.

Rizzel's Tips

Sea Of Roses 3/1 – Salisbury 4.30

The more I look at the Listed fillies/mares races, the more I think the quality isn't great. I think you can easily get dragged into backing the improving lightly raced horse, in this case it would be the Gosden horse, and then you can also get dragged into Listed form/wins on previous runs, but for me, the best horse in this race is Sea Of Roses.

Sea Of Roses hasn't got the most appealing profile coming into this race, as she hasn't won a race since her maiden in at Doncaster in October 2022. But, she has been running in better races than this since that win, and it appears to me that Andrew Balding has found her a nice opportunity to get a second win under her belt and get some winning black type which is very important for fillies when they go on to become broodmares. This race doesn't seems to be fully of fillies who could progress further, and I even would be happy enough to rule out the Gosden horse as the form of her recent win looks terrible. Given no horse has come out and franked that form, you'd expect her to win that on the bridle, but she had to be stoked up and when she went clear it looked impressive, but as I've said, the form of those behind looks honking.

Andrew Balding's 4-year-old is the highest rated filly in the race, and she has been running in the best races, so that doesn't come as a surprise. Her recent runs at Listed level has seen her finish third over 12f, which looks a step too far. The runner-up has since won a Group 2 at Haydock, with the fifth-placed horse winning at Listed race at Ayr on her next start. Last time out, Sea Of Roses was on the AW and ran to a RPR of 105 when finishing behind Tiffany. The winner was on a roll, winning two Listed races before landing the Group 3 and has since finished second in a Group 2. The runner-up at Newcastle was a 2x Group 2 winner and has since finished 5th/15 in a French Group 1.

The main concern for Sea Of Roses is the ground. She has been withdrawn on two of the last three times she was intended to run because of unsuitable ground, both of which was on good to firm ground. Her pedigree gives optimism that she isn't dependent on soft ground, as does her run when finishing 5th/17 in the Ribblesdale on good to firm ground behind Warm Heart and co at Royal Ascot last year.

Sakti 3/1 – Gowran Park 6.50

Firstly, Colin Keane is evidently not riding Sakti which is a huge negative, but he is on the sidelines with a ban over the course of August 14th and 15th. Gary Carroll is the second string jockey for Ger Lyons, so normally would be on Sakti, but he has been the number one jockey on the flat for Gavin Cromwell, and I think he values that partnership more than the Ger Lyons one so he has opted to stay on Snellen. Seamie Heffernan was the Aidan O'Brien reserve stable jockey for many years but this is the first year he has been a free agent for a long time, and as a result he has managed to get onboard Sakti, with this just being the fourth ride in the last five years for Ger.

I tipped up Sakti last time out on the back of a 117 day absence, and though I was confident in a big run from her, the market vibes close to the off and the way she looked in the parade ring suggested she was in need of the run. When it came to the performance, everything which I've stated looked to be true as she wasn't quite on her A-Game and she was a bit laboured and did look to be in need of the run. The winner got an easy lead on the front and was given a smart ride by Wayne Lordan, but Sakti did enough in the final stages of the race to prove she retains a good level of ability and with that run under her belt and an extra month of training, I think she is a dangerous horse to ignore for today's contest.

Sakti was a smart juvenile last year. She was a runner-up in a Group 2 and Group 3 last year, so it was nice to see that she has still got the ability to get involved at this level based on her run from last time out. She managed to win at Dundalk to break her maiden tag at odds of 1/4F, and the form of that race has turned out better than expected. She is going up to 1m 1f today for the first time, and based on her pedigree it doesn't look sure to suit, but Ger is a top-class trainer and knows what time of day it is, so I'm willing to trust that this is the right move.

She has been done no favours by being drawn in Stall 10, which is a bit of a disaster for a track like Gowran Park, but hopefully she can break well and track across from the wide draw to get a prominent position.

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