Although April didn't start as I had hoped, it's still very early days, and there's plenty of time to return to the form I was showing in March.
I thought the longer trip was going to suit Ip Up, but I don't think she stayed the 2m 4f around Fakenham. The leader set a strong pace, and Ip Up was following him closely, which might not have helped. Her jumping was a bit sticky at a few obstacles, and when push came to shove, she was very laboured. The favourite managed to win in the end and proved to be too strong for the field.
Rizzel's tips
Broderick 4/1 – Exeter 3.25
Jennie Candlish is a trainer who definitely flies under the radar, probably because she is based just North of the midlands and doesn't have too many classy operators, but she does extremely well at this level of racing, and she tends to do very well when travelling to tracks she rarely visits.
Her sole runner at Exeter is Broderick, and on the bare form, this horse probably has a lot to do to beat the Southern-based horses, but Jennie's record at this track in the last five years is 2/2, so she won't be coming here if she didn't believe her horse is in with a fighting chance.
Broderick will be carrying 11st 11lbs after Luke Scott knocks off 3lbs from the original 12st, and even though that isn't a huge amount, it will definitely help. I don't think this race is particularly strong, so the horses arriving in good form like Super Saint and Al Sayah are definitely beatable. Super Saint beat a Jennie Candlish horse at Sedgefield last time around, so she will know exactly how good that horse is as she will be able to compare Broderick to the horse which was beaten, and given they are willing to take this horse on again, it suggests they are supremely confident.
This trip looks to be in our favour as he has been running over shorter for his novice races and seems to be a little outpaced over the shorter trips, so running over a longer trip should put more emphasis rather than speed, and I think that is going to be key. Also, he has plenty of experience and is now making his handicap debut on his seventh run, which is unusual as trainers like to run the two or three times required to get a mark and then run them in handicaps, so that will also be a nice advantage.
The yard is in good form, and the rider is 2/8 in the last fortnight, so he is also riding high on confidence.
Crac De Megaudais 2/1 – Ludlow 3.15
Even though Elusivness is arriving with a recent win from eight days ago and is a couple of pounds ahead of the handicapper by carrying the 7lb penalty, I think you can take him on.
The horse I thought was worth having a bet on was Crac De Megaudais. This horse beat one of my previous selections on Boxing Day when he was very strongly fancied at Fakenham, and he justified the money and pasted the field. The handicapper wasted no time and hiked him up 13lbs in the handicap, which is probably a bit harsh, but he was impressive, and given how well he ran that day, I think he can go in again in a weak contest.
It's strange that he hasn't been seen since, as he was evidently ahead of the handicapper and was in good form in January, but they might have been waiting around for good spring ground to capitalise on his handicap mark. If he arrives in the same level of form from Fakenham, I think he can definitely win this race and beat the favourite, who is a shade of odds-on.
I'm not convinced that this trip is what the favourite wants; he won over 3m after being well-supported the time before over 2m 2f. He seemed to lack the speed over the shorter trip, and even though this trip is 3f longer than that, this is a small field and if it becomes tactical, he could lack the speed.
GambleAware