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Although April didn't start as I had hoped, it's still very early days, and there's plenty of time to return to the form I was showing in March.
I thought the longer trip was going to suit Ip Up, but I don't think she stayed the 2m 4f around Fakenham. The leader set a strong pace, and Ip Up was following him closely, which might not have helped. Her jumping was a bit sticky at a few obstacles, and when push came to shove, she was very laboured. The favourite managed to win in the end and proved to be too strong for the field.
Rizzel's tips
Broderick 4/1 – Exeter 3.25
Jennie Candlish is a trainer who definitely flies under the radar, probably because she is based just North of the midlands and doesn't have too many classy operators, but she does extremely well at this level of racing, and she tends to do very well when travelling to tracks she rarely visits.
Her sole runner at Exeter is Broderick, and on the bare form, this horse probably has a lot to do to beat the Southern-based horses, but Jennie's record at this track in the last five years is 2/2, so she won't be coming here if she didn't believe her horse is in with a fighting chance.
Broderick will be carrying 11st 11lbs after Luke Scott knocks off 3lbs from the original 12st, and even though that isn't a huge amount, it will definitely help. I don't think this race is particularly strong, so the horses arriving in good form like Super Saint and Al Sayah are definitely beatable. Super Saint beat a Jennie Candlish horse at Sedgefield last time around, so she will know exactly how good that horse is as she will be able to compare Broderick to the horse which was beaten, and given they are willing to take this horse on again, it suggests they are supremely confident.
This trip looks to be in our favour as he has been running over shorter for his novice races and seems to be a little outpaced over the shorter trips, so running over a longer trip should put more emphasis rather than speed, and I think that is going to be key. Also, he has plenty of experience and is now making his handicap debut on his seventh run, which is unusual as trainers like to run the two or three times required to get a mark and then run them in handicaps, so that will also be a nice advantage.
The yard is in good form, and the rider is 2/8 in the last fortnight, so he is also riding high on confidence.
Crac De Megaudais 2/1 – Ludlow 3.15
Even though Elusivness is arriving with a recent win from eight days ago and is a couple of pounds ahead of the handicapper by carrying the 7lb penalty, I think you can take him on.
The horse I thought was worth having a bet on was Crac De Megaudais. This horse beat one of my previous selections on Boxing Day when he was very strongly fancied at Fakenham, and he justified the money and pasted the field. The handicapper wasted no time and hiked him up 13lbs in the handicap, which is probably a bit harsh, but he was impressive, and given how well he ran that day, I think he can go in again in a weak contest.
It's strange that he hasn't been seen since, as he was evidently ahead of the handicapper and was in good form in January, but they might have been waiting around for good spring ground to capitalise on his handicap mark. If he arrives in the same level of form from Fakenham, I think he can definitely win this race and beat the favourite, who is a shade of odds-on.
I'm not convinced that this trip is what the favourite wants; he won over 3m after being well-supported the time before over 2m 2f. He seemed to lack the speed over the shorter trip, and even though this trip is 3f longer than that, this is a small field and if it becomes tactical, he could lack the speed.
Thursday aintree bowl 2-55 kick off.
2 bets
Ahoy senor 11-8 top 3 finish
Grey dawning 2-1 win
Torn between the 2 so going on both.
Ahoy senor has meeting figures of 1122 so that speaks for itself.
Grey dawning I believe has been aimed at this race but I’d have liked 3-1 or better .
Thought you would of waited for me to go first Elvis ! You know the rules 😂
With the Aintree festival starting tomorrow I thought I’d put up some trainer and jockey stats that are worth noting.
The only trainer to have made a profit over the past 10 years is Lucinda Russell with a profit of £88.00.
Trainers that have not had a single winner in the past 10 years are
Venetia Williams 0-54, Rebecca Curtis 0-29, Emma Lavelle 0-22, Sue Smith 0-21
Other trainers with just 1 winner are
Charlie Longsdon 1-41, Harry Fry 1-34, Olly Murphy 1-28, Kim Bailey 1-23, Dr Richard Newland 1-20
Some jockeys that have made a profit over the past 10 years are
Harry Cobden + 15.41, Mark Walsh + 9.51, Jack Kennedy+18.33, Paddy Brennan+3.70, Rachael Blackmore+4.00
Jockeys that have not had a single winner in 10 years
Jonjo O Neill jr 0-37, Brendan Powell 0-31, Charlie Deutsch 0-30
Jockeys with 1 victory
Nick Schofield 1-33, Adrian Heskin 1-20
My 3rd antepost selection BLUE LORD is declared for the Topham and Townend takes the ride.
That is great news
Pretty crap racing today, so I’ll have a small ew on Awakening 6.15 Gowran @ 50s top 4 Skybet
GL
So few runners in the jumps meetings you’ll be lucky to get each way terms never mind ew extra Pete..
That’s the pay off with this nice weather, less runners on unsuitable ground.
Betting is there all year, I’ll take the nice weather while it lasts 🌞😎
Trapista 2-45 Ludlow 7-2
Straw fan jack 3-45 Ludlow 5-1
Only 3 runners and 12 months ago this would have been favourite for this, needs a renaissance so hoping today is it.
If it is a going day he gets a stone off the other 2 which will be handy.
filly foden 2.07 well done all winners yesterday
an buachaill rua 2.15 ew
Aintree Day 1 Selections
1.45 Impaire Et Passe
Amazingly the last 15 winners of this race did not win their previous race. Maybe it’s down to some horses having harder races than others that ran at Cheltenham yet 7 of the last 10 winners last ran at Cheltenham so it’s not necessarily fresh horses that win.
However, IEP although he didn’t run well lto has cheekpieces applied for the first time and has the services of Townend onboard and is the class horse in the race.
I think he’s the one to be on here with the danger being Croke Park.
2.20 Live Conti 8/1 ew 3 places AP
Put him up a couple of days ago, seems to be friendless in the market but the bet is on so I’ll let it run.
I might have an ew saver on Wendrock who was unlucky in the Fred Winter being badly hampered and finished very strongly.
2.55 Ahoy Senor ew
Has finished 1st 2nd and 2nd in the last 3 runnings of this race and there’s no Shiskin or Gerry in the field this year. He’s not had the best of seasons this year and is now 10, but he comes alive at this track and will enjoy conditions.
I do love Spillane’s Tower but his trainer said he didn’t travel well for the King George so until he does it on UK soil I’ll leave him be.
3.30 Lossiemouth
I wasn’t impressed with Con Hill when he won this race 2 years ago and he’s not the horse now that he was then. It’s also Lossiemouth’s best trip and I can see her coming out on top here.
4.05 My Drogo
Only 3 of the last 39 winners were younger than 9 so it’s best to look for experience in this race.
My Drogo is obviously the class horse of the race and skipped Cheltenham for here which being a flat track is ideal for him. Lost his way but has come back winning his last 2 so seems to be in a better frame of mind.
4.40 Sans Bruit ew
Again spoke of him a couple of days ago how he’s somehow been dropped 13lbs in 4 runs since Dec. Is the most blatant plot job you will see.
Led from start to finish when winning this race last year and now that he’s back down to 130 from 143 will surely make a bold bid to repeat last year’s success.
A danger could be The Folkes Tiara for HDB who has won 2 of the last 5 renewals. Has good form in Ireland and hasn’t been harshly treated by the handicapper, I’ll have a saver on him.
5.15 Queen Kate 50/1 ew
Just a small bet on her after I thought she did well to win her only race so far having been boxed in and had to switch to the middle of the track to get her head in front. Hard to know what she beat but I thought 50’s was big but the price is holding so maybe she beat trees.
BOL
super saint 3.25
dwindling funds 2.37 ew
el rayo 3.15
nr
Trapista pipped by 53 lengths 🤣
Straw fan jack won 11-2, another outsider of 3 winner, uncanny how many of these win, probably because they are not truly run and more tactical…….
You got to think like a bender Elvis it’s the only way you will win 😂
Grey dawning now 5-2 in places.
Lifetime ambition 4-05 aintree foxhunter
21-20 top 5 finish NAP 🏇🏇.
Bet365
Double your dough 😁.
9-2 too skinny for win or each way in such a big field.
Apart from the grand national 2 years ago when he unseated this horse’s record under rules in march/April reads 21121231 .
Has been winning points recently and a healthy age at 10, barring accidents can’t see this outside the top 5
Poor old cairnzy someone give that man a hug ! 😂
Em jay kay 7.00s 11-1☘️☘️gl all
falcon eight 7.15 ew well done all winners today
Turf Paradise -Race 6….Stamp My Passport 11/4 Bet365
Combo tricast No: = 1 -2 -4
Will Rodgers Downs – Race 2…Top Of The World 6/4
Take they 2 up top 2 finish @ 10/11 and 5/6 with the following in small 5 Fold,6 Fold and an Acca
Mahoning Valley -Race 6…Watchyoforever 5/6
Race 8…Reigning Dream 8/11
Will Rodgers -Race 3…I’m Enticing 4/7
Turf Paradise -Race 4…Oops 5/6
Few them above may drift out nearer the off so could be worth a double your doh single play but Bet365 are best odds so probably keep it light on a Wednesday night
GL yoll and well done to you winners today
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Oops (no pun intended) FORGOT
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Will Rodgers Race 6…Big Muckity 5/6
SAME 5 fold,6 Fold and Acca obviously 👍