This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
I was very disappointed in the performance of Livy's Lad at Southwell.
In recent times, when tipping up horses at 2pt wins, we've had a very nice success rate.
Livy's Lad was backed in odds-on, but was far too keen in the early stages, and his jumping was not good at all.
Staffordshire Knot ensured it was a small loss on the day by winning at Clonmel.
He won nicely in the end, but I was hoping for it to be a little easier, as at times it looked like the runner-up was going to close. He was also backed in to odds-on, which makes it a great shame that it was 2/2 on the day.
Dunboyne 7/4 (1pt) – Haydock 2.08
I don't think Dunboyne is on a particularly good handicap mark, but he is in good form at the moment. I think backing horses in form over ones who aren't in a big factor, especially in Veterans' races, where it's hard for horses to bounce back to form.
Dunboyne always showed promise when trained by Gordon Elliott and was a consistent feature in the marathon and big staying handicaps. He never really progressed as I thought he would, but since moving to Ian Donoghue's yard, he's turned it around.
In the five runs for his new yard, he has managed to win over hurdles at odds of 66/1, before winning the Ulster National at Downpatrick.
Since then, he hasn't disgraced himself by finishing fourth of thirty at Fairyhouse in a Grade 3, and his two runs this year have been 5th/18 and 3rd/19.
Keith Donoghue is a man who doesn't travel to the UK unless he's on a very good horse, so seeing him travel over for one ride is very eye-catching. The others in the race always have a chance based on previous form from seasons ago, but the majority will have to turn it around to win this.
Carrigmoorna Rowan 8/1 (1pt) – Haydock 3.12
Not many horses improve when leaving Harry Fry's yard, but Carrigmoorna Rowan looks like an exception.
Ryan Potter is a very capable trainer, so it's not a dig or a surprise that he has managed to get this horse back to form, but Harry Fry is a very underrated trainer, and when one leaves his yard, they rarely improve.
It's still very early days, so I'm not going to get carried away with this selection, but he ran very well on his stable debut 11 days ago. Ryan Potter is 2/2 at Haydock, which is always a lovely stat to have when this is his sole runner on the card.
It's a very small sample size, but it goes to show he doesn't waste his bullets when coming to the Merseyside track. I think this is a very tough race, so being compensated with odds of 8/1 makes him worth the chance.
The horses ahead of him in the market, bar Dangerous Touch, are in great form at the moment. But this is why we are getting 8/1 on this horse. Tom Broughton is a capable 5lb claimer, and this is his sole ride of the day as well. If the horse has come on for his recent outing on the back of a 189-day absence, I think you're foolish to overlook him.
GambleAware