A new week for the ‘Nap of the Day’ begins on Wednesday. I hope those reading this enjoyed Cheltenham, and I hope even more that you made a few quid. For me, it was not a profitable week, with each of my two bets for MrFixItsTips failing to get involved.
| Huntingdon - 15:35 |
Tropical Talent |
9/2 |
Ahead of Wednesday’s action, I like one at Huntingdon. The race in question is 15:35. The horse in question is Tropical Talent, who is back down to a nice mark, running for a training duo that does well at the Cambridgeshire track.
We haven’t seen this horse for a little while, though he’s run well off the back of similar breaks before, while this return to the larger obstacles, on what can be described as ideal ground, should suit.
Not often far away in races of this nature
It’s fair to say that the six-year-old has run a few good races when contesting Class 5 chases, winning a deeper race than this at Sedgefield back in May of last year. Today he races from the same mark. He also finished a close-up third at that venue, from 2 lbs higher, in September. A repeat of that would likely see him go close here.
Raced eight times over fences in total, the gelding has never finished more than four lengths behind the winner when racing from a mark of 83 or less. From today’s mark of 82, he has a record of one win from one run.
I’m also going to put out that training duo Greenall and Guerriero do well at Huntingdon with their colts and geldings in handicaps. Across the five seasons prior to this one, the pair had 25 such runners. 12 of those won, while a further 11 hit the places. That’s a win strike rate of 48% and a win/place strike rate of 92%, highlighting that the yard knows how to aim one at a Huntingdon contest.
Last but certainly not least, the gelding tops the rather short list for career-best speed ratings. Ahead of what is a modest (at best) five-runner race, that’s another positive and when you put everything together, odds of 9/2 look ever so slightly generous. Those looking for a value bet that ticks plenty of boxes ahead of a winnable contest should take such odds.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 102 Naps) has a running P/L of -£38.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
February 2025 = +£20.00
GambleAware