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Spirit Of The Breeze couldn’t produce a big enough run to deliver the goods on Tuesday. To be honest, I didn’t really understand the drift, I thought 20/1 was already big enough given his credentials and without threatening to win, he ran respectably to take fourth, performing far better than a horse that had drifted in the market, paying out nicely for anyone who got on each-way.
| Ludlow - 14:05 |
Quaresome |
13/2 |
On Wednesday, for me, it’s all about the opening race at Ludlow, which is a really interesting contest.
I’ll start by saying that Shelikesthelights is probably just about the correct market leader. She’s entitled to go well following her reappearance second at Worcester, where she finished second behind a decent sort.
However, at bigger odds, I’m finding it tough to get away from Quaresome, who ticks more than enough boxes to make odds of 13/2 look very chunky indeed. At the very least, this horse has done enough to be chalked up as the second favourite.
This looks like an easier assignment
Last time out, over further at Perth, the gelding finished a respectable fifth (of 15), doing so in a race that contained more depth than this. These are calmer waters, that’s for sure.
I’m not too sure whether the step back in trip is a clear positive or not, but his previous from over this sort of distance rates positively in relation to this contest.
His penultimate start, which came back in June, produced a close-up second over an extended two miles at Market Rasen, where he finished only half a length behind a winner that rates above anything in here, one that has since gone on to place in a Class 2 affair. The horse he beat into third on that occasion also rates comfortably above this and has since won at Class 2 level. This sort of form should not be overlooked.
Ludlow has been a happy hunting ground for Donald McCain in the last year, with the trainer winning with an eye-catching 30.77% of runners sent to the Shropshire track. He also has a very decent (and highly profitable) 19.57% strike rate when putting 3 lb claimer Charlie Maggs in the saddle.
At the end of the day, it won’t be a huge surprise if Shelikesthelights wins this. If that happens, so be it, but Quaresome would also be anything but a surprise winner. In my book, he should be shorter than the 13/2 that’s available at the time of writing. All the time such odds are on offer, he simply rates as a great bet.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£80.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
