A promising run from Navajo Indy, who will surely win races of that nature before long, when last in action on Saturday, though unfortunately, on that occasion, he couldn’t quite pull out enough.
| Southwell - 15:50 |
Montrachet Girl |
8/1 |
A new week for the ‘Nap of the Day’ begins on Wednesday, when the card at Southwell catches the eye, chiefly because Montrachet Girl looks a decent bet at 8/1 ahead of the 15:50 contest.
Returning from a break of 112 days at Kempton just under a month ago, the filly, who remains unexposed, delivered a promising performance, one that suggests she ought to have plenty to give in a race of this nature.
Difficult to dismiss for an in-form trainer
Running for a trainer that has delivered a rather impressive 42.86% strike rate in the last fortnight, the three-year-old showed up well last time out, staying on to take fourth (of 12) over this trip at Kempton.
In that Kempton race, she finished in front of a few horses that rate above anything in here, while she was very narrowly beaten by a horse that has since gone on to finish a close-up second in a race far from dissimilar to this. If that comeback effort has wound her up, she could easily do better, and she likely wouldn’t need to improve much to lay down a serious challenge.
It’s also eye-catching that, as a two-year-old, Varian’s runner finished second in a Newbury event, beating horses that have since gone on to earn ratings of 76 and 74. Her highest rated opponent today runs off 71.
Based on last-time-out speed figures, she tops the pile, while she’s well drawn too, so don’t be surprised to see her go well for a trainer that has been anything but short of winners recently.
All in all, there’s more than enough evidence to suggest that she’s got a better chance than 8/1 would have us believe. In other words, such odds are definitely too big and should be taken by those looking for value.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 91 Naps) has a running P/L of -£35.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
