Sadly, there was no follow-up winner on Tuesday, with Radiant Beauty underwhelming at Yarmouth. It’s an up and down game, that’s for sure, although I’d take a loser every Tuesday for the rest of my life if only half of my remaining weeks start with a 9/1 winner. Anyway, onto Wednesday’s Nap.
| Kempton - 18:40 |
King David |
6/1 |
Wednesday is a tricky day as far as I’m concerned, though the 18:40 race at Kempton, a Class 5 handicap over seven furlongs, is of interest, not least of all because King David looks to have a slightly better chance than an early quote of 6/1 suggests.
Lightly raced and far from fully exposed, Marco Botti’s runner returns to the scene of his recent victory having followed up with a very solid effort in third last time out. In what is perhaps a slightly easier race, at least in terms of depth, I think he warrants more respect than he’s being given by the early market.
Recent course and distance win hard to ignore
Therace that he won over course and distance back in early September was certainly no worse than this. In fact, this is a race that lacks depth in comparison.
Of course, he’s up 4 lbs since then, but it remains early days with this horse, and I’d be a little surprised if a mark of 72 was his ceiling.
To be honest, had he been given less to do at Southwell last time out, he may well have made it two wins from two. He certainly stayed on well in the closing stages. His style should also lend itself to the fact that there’s expected to be a decent pace on here, with several who like to challenge for the lead.
Hollie Doyle was in the saddle for his C&D win, so it’s probably fair to say that her getting back on board is a plus, especially given the decent strike rate that Botti and Doyle have together. In 2024, the pair have a 17.5% strike rate together. They have a win/place strike rate of 40%.
In the early betting, Berry Clever is well fancied following his C&D win last time out, but that was at Class 6 level. His previous form doesn’t exactly suggest that he’s a follow-up type in a Class 5, that’s for sure. His early price definitely has something to do with recency bias, and though he may prove me wrong, I really won’t be surprised if that one struggles to repeat his recent antics.
All things considered, King David ticks plenty of boxes here, so much so that this goes down as a more sizable opportunity for the three-year-old to secure a second career success than the early market believes. Take odds of 6/1.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£40.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
In December 2020 we sadly 
