There was no turnaround in fortunes on Tuesday as Shark Two One ran on for a never-nearer and modest-at-best fifth. We enter Wednesday hoping for better.
| Fakenham - 12:50 |
Hiero Sport |
8/1 |
Today’s Nap races at Fakenham, where after plenty of waiting until the evening, we get going nice and early in the opening race. Hiero Sport looks nicely priced at 8/1, and here’s why:
I’ll start by saying that his most recent run wasn’t up to much, but I’m not sure he appreciated the very testing ground that day. With no rain forecast and good (good-to-soft in places) ground in store at Fakenham, he ought to appreciate the return to better underfoot conditions.
Prior to his handicap bow, the gelding finished a respectable fourth over two miles at Southwell, performing as if this distance would be more to his liking, particularly on decent ground.
His maiden form has worked out well
It’s worth noting that two of the three horses to finish in front of him on his penultimate start have run since, placing in and winning better races than this, with one of those two now holding a rating of 117.
He rates top of the pile for speed ratings, which is not something that I’ll readily ignore, while his trainer doesn’t have a bad record at this venue, nor does he have a bad record when putting Kielan Woods in the saddle.
It could come down to fitness here, and after 161 days off, he may well need the run, but there’s enough juice in early odds of 8/1 for me to take a chance on that. After all, he went close on debut as a bumper horse back in 2023, while he also placed off the back of 217 days off at this venue last November.
That course effort a year ago saw him beaten by two horses that have gone on to rate miles better than this contest. Sure, he didn’t exactly get close to that pair, but the three horses that he beat have all gone on to win, scoring from marks of 103, 93 and 101. Such facts catch the eye given the level of this race.
At the end of the day, this is by no means a strong contest, even for Class 5 level, and it probably won’t be too long before the lightly raced gelding bags a prize of this nature. At 8/1, I’m betting that today’s the day he does just that.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day, after 51 Naps, has a running profit and loss of -£30.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
In December 2020 we sadly 
