Yesterday’s runner was well backed, going off a good bit shorter than advised, and he didn’t exactly run a bad race, finishing third, without ever troubling the winner. Moving on.
| Newcastle - 15:03 |
Russian Virtue |
16/1 |
It’s another relatively low-key day on Wednesday, though at least National Hunt fans have something to cling to at Taunton. For me, the focus is Newcastle, where ahead of the 15:03, a one-mile-two-furlong handicap of the Class 6 variety, Russian Virtue stands out at 16/1.
Twice a winner on the all-weather, Russian Virtue returned to action following a 251-day break in early December, running as if he needed the outing, before taking a decent step in the right direction to finish fourth over course and distance a few days after Christmas.
Having dropped another 1 lb in the weights, the gelding is starting to look well handicapped and after two spins could now start to make his presence felt.
Drops in grade after a positive effort last time out
That race last time out was a Class 5 affair and it’s fair to say that the eight-year-old, who is back down to his last winning mark, performed credibly, finishing just over two lengths behind a horse that rates above this contest. In fact, the three horses to beat him home that day are all rated above any of today’s opponents.
Moreover, the horse that Russian Virtue beat into fifth has since gone on to finish second in a Class 5, which is not to be ignored.
His six previous races over C&D have yielded two wins, two fourth-placed finishes and a third, so it’s fair to say that he typically gives his running. From marks of 61 or lower, he’s never finished out of the first three over course and distance.
Trainer David Thompson doesn’t exactly do badly at Newcastle either, while Sean Kirrane, who is typically his go-to rider, remains in the saddle, which is another plus.
With a couple in here who like to go forward, there could be a bit of a battle on for the lead too, which may prompt something of a pace collapse, which would definitely play to his come-from-off-the-pace strengths.
Right up there on speed ratings, courtesy of a close-up fourth from higher in the weights over C&D a while ago, the gelding looks far too big at 16/1. As far as I’m concerned, there’s more than enough evidence to suggest that he can outrun such a price.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 80 Naps) has a running P/L of +£75.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
