When last in action, back on Saturday, there was no notable performance delivered by My Bobby Dazzler, who folded rather tamely as the drift suggested. Thankfully, it was a profitable week for the ‘Nap of the Day’ following Wednesday’s 8/1 winner. Let’s see what this week brings.
| Doncaster - 16:33 |
Reforme |
11/1 (each-way) |
We’re again starting the week’s three Naps with a bet on Wednesday, and this time the focus is Doncaster, where ahead of the race beginning at 16:33, Reforme looks nicely priced. In fact, he looks a bit too nicely priced, so much so that an each-way bet is warranted.
The mount of David Noonan made his third appearance of the current campaign when finishing second at Catterick (over today’s trip) just under three weeks ago, keeping on well without threatening a very well handicapped winner. With that encouraging effort under his belt, there could be more to come from the unexposed six-year-old.
His maiden form is not to be ignored
His effort last time out suggested that this horse could easily be on the up and he likely wouldn’t need to find much in the way of improvement to get involved here, despite this being a slightly better contest.
What interests me is the level of form that this runner displayed back in the spring of 2024, with him twice running well in maiden company, getting close to a few horses that rate clearly above this event.
If we look back to last March, we can see that the gelding finished fourth (of 10) at Ayr, where he finished not far behind two subsequent winners, one of which is now rated 121, with the other recently winning from a mark of 120. Today’s highest rated opponent races from 109, so I wouldn’t be too surprised if he gets more competitive here than the early odds suggest.
He also finished third at Musselburgh (in April 2024), finishing only a neck behind a horse that recently won a Class 2 affair from a mark of 116. Again, such form tells me that he could easily be a handicapper capable of winning a modest contest of this nature.
Top of the clock in terms of last-time-out ratings, while one of his figures delivered last season is better than what most of these have delivered in recent times, boosting his chances further.
All in all, there’s enough for me to conclude that 11/1 is on the large side and at such odds, an each-way bet very much offers a chunk of value to those who seek that sort of thing.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 94 Naps) has a running P/L of +£25.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
