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We came away with just places after Tuesday which was more than I was expecting given all the runners were relatively friendless in the market.
It turns out Danny Mullins coming over for just one ride was a tip in itself, another good thing identified but ignored. The frustrating thing was swapping it for one I could barely make a case for. The ‘well-in' Fanzone had the lead slippers on, he is entered tomorrow also with ‘main man' Billy Garrity taking over, if it wins feathers will be spat. Little Ted was given a mention, of course, he won, the second over the last few days to lose an allowance and still get the job done. Spantik was brave from the front before being beaten very late by the short-priced favourite whose yard were 2-2 on the card. I don't think she would have won, so I won't cry about Tudhope giving up a tad early.
True Wisdom 4/1 – 20.00 Kempton
I cut my teeth on the AW during the winters, Kempton is typically one of those meetings often a notch above the usual dross that can be seen on the synthetic surfaces. Most of the races are untouchable without really digging in given the price of the favourite but I've landed on one.
As I sit here listening to my old friend Alan Watts, True Wisdom jumped off the page and when checking his best runs, the form looks acceptable despite it not being the each-way price I am tasked to find.
The horse ran over C&D once almost a year ago when 2nd to Going the Distance, this race was the horse's 3rd win in a row, he beat us easily but next time out, he beat 18 rivals at Royal Ascot in the King George V Stakes. The horse in behind went out and won next time so all being well, the horse is at least capable having been dropped a few pounds since.
The horse is 4/1 on 365 and 13/8 on Skybet, make of that what you will.
Showtimes Mahomes 4/1 4 places – 16.45 Musselburgh
I will admit that this selection was made at a glance, but I have at least assessed his chances, a horse I luckily avoided when last out at Ripon, failing miserably over 6f.
Now back over 7f, he won here at this time last year but has not shown much in his 13 subsequent runs besides I suppose a month ago at Doncaster when 4th of 11. It may be an oversight to chance such an inconsistent beast up against many, many in form runners but now might be the time to catch him 4lbs below last years success.
Grant Tuer is a decent northern trainer who has been on the scene for a good few seasons now, his price is 4/1 on 365 and 15/8 on sky. The trainer had two winners on Tuesday, both winning. Braes of Doune is on a hattrick, the rise being offset by the talented Amie Waugh.
Ambassador 7/1 4 places – 16.25 Catterick
Micky Hammond sends out Ambassador and I can't quite see why he would unless it'd actually be trying given he won over obstacles last time. He has no flat form to report but was at least tried over C&D years ago when with Richard Fahey.
He won off an effective 93, 43lbs higher than his flat rating. My basis for his selection is, as a rough rule many tend to say take 30-40lbs off the jumps rating to get the flat mark, which by that puts him well in. He won over a few furlongs further over the obstacles, which is another thing I'd look for when transferring form.
The favourite Lady Pheobe is too short to chance but I do like the trainer over these trips, many will know his stable star, Wise Eagle.
Kitesurfer 5/1 4 places – 18.40 Worcester
It isn't overly ideal to force out a tip from a jumps card when as mentioned yesterday, I haven't had my eyes on it for quite some time. I was tempted to go with my old favourite Emma Lavelle in the last at an acceptable price but have stuck to this race with an extra place available.
We ignored Alistair Ralph's winner yesterday, and we do so again despite it winning by over 30 lengths last time. I will admit this is a lazy pick, the horse is a favourite and there's nothing I hate more than losing on a favourite.
Many of the runners have got big weight taken off them from inexperienced claimers, I am going to put my faith one more time in Gavin Sheehan who let us down yesterday, although I am inclined to believe it was more the horse.
The horse won in June, they may not be rushing him to get another one in the back pocket after falling last time out but I am very tight for time and throwing him in, not a good enough excuse but we all have personal lives. He carried 5lbs more than the 2nd when winning, he beat it by 5 lengths, although it was his stablemate so could count for a little, but he did come out and win next time. The 3rd had been consistent whilst the 4th came in off the back of a win.
Princess Uniqueh carries a featherweight, whilst Ballyvaughan Bay was almost chanced. Craven Bay 14/1 is my one to check in the market.
– Advised bet – Eachway Lucky15
WHAT IS A LUCKY 15 BET?
A Lucky 15 bet consists of 15 unique bets, covering every possible combination that comes from backing four selections. The 15 bets are broken down like this:
– 1 fourfold accumulator
– 4 trebles, with each treble omitting one of your selections
– 6 doubles, again covering every possible combination
– 4 singles
The attraction of a Lucky 15 is that it offers many more ways to win than a standard accumulator. A Lucky 15 uses both your acca and your singles as well as producing trebles and doubles that reward you for correctly calling 2/4 or 3/4 of your selections. To cover the 15 separate bets, a Lucky 15 uses your stake 15 times. If you were to place £1 on a Lucky 15, you would be staking £15 in total across the various bets.
Stuck a few of these in a Lucky 31. Credit where it’s due, thanking you kindly ?