Wednesday’s Lucky 15 Tips – Selections from Nottingham, Newton Abbot and Kempton

The main fancy romped home yesterday which was nice to see but only one placed runner accompanied it – that won't help the stats but it was still pleasing to get an outright winner in a disappointing month. 

We are getting closer at least, Siam Park was a faller but one wearing the same colours did go in, just like the Ivan Furtado runner yesterday, he had two out, ours, and a nice winner. Sir Garfield was very disappointing but that is the risk you take at Class 5/6 level. I have some unbreakable commitments this evening so today's bet may be best avoided. I have thrown in two short enough to offset the total punts I have taken, I've said it a couple of times recently but I'll be working overtime to ensure October doesn't live long in the memory.

Collusion 2/1 – 15.38 Nottingham

Having concluded the bet with what is a total shot in the dark, it might have made sense to just go totally crazy today, but I am going to try strike a balance to ensure even when/if let down by Haziym, we are still able to recoup something.

The horse I am throwing in is Collusion, he'll be my shortest selection to date, a place will be no good on it's own but still this James Tate colt can hopefully get his head in front and justify his inclusion at such a laughable price.

Rossa Ryan is one of the go to jockeys for this owner/trainer combination, that doesn't mean much but the horse put in a nice performance off a 7 month break last time when 2nd rated 60, the winner is decent enough and if continuing the progress, there isn't too much standing in the way. Given the lack of depth, a risk is taken against some more experienced rivals that the outright win is landed, conditions will suit and despite Rossa having a whole host of rides, I am hoping this one holds the strongest claims.

Gentleman Toboot 9/2 – 16.30 Newton Abbot

We weren't far off following these owners yesterday, it turns out IIRC they had 3 out, ours fell but one did go in and I am happy to chance this one for a trainer who had a winner yesterday. It's a bumper so we can at least expect to finish the race.

There isn't much to say, it's the sort of race some inside info would be needed to have any idea about, those who've run have all performed creditably in points, with 3 of the top 4 in the market having won. There are some well represented horses here and I could have landed on a good few, following the owners recent successes though, it's the a Gentleman Toboot who gets the nod.

Believe it 16/1 four places – 19.30 Kempton

My task is effectively to dig through the racing to try find horses which have a chance, that can be very time consuming and it isn't alway possible to be a scrupulous as one would want. As such chances will sometimes be taken and with a massive priced horse included already, I thought I'd throw this one in too.

There are plenty of runners in this which are capable of throwing in a stinker, I checked most of the runners and although some have chances, and some have shown recent decent form, it is the Kubler newcomer that we'll pin our hopes too.

Not that it matters, but this owner/trainer/jockey was one of the first I took note of a good few years ago when trying to piece together this intoxicating game. That is the main reason I am siding with them today which isn't typically enough but as I've said before, chances will be taken throughout the month in hopes we don't end up in too much of a hole at the end of it.

The horse has barely beat a rival in 3 starts, which isn't too much of an issue given that is the way things often go for handicappers but it isn't overly ideal the horse was tried here in two of those runs. With a wide stall today, we'll have to hope he's fully at it whilst others are being saved.

Haziym 20/1 four places – 18.30 Kempton

This is an intriguing race in terms of finding the winner, four horses come into it having won at least their last race whilst a few outsiders are also worthy of inclusion.

I am not quite sure I ever understood the phrase, balls to the wall today, but I'm scrapping Raffles Angel and taking a complete punt with one bang out of sorts, which given the look of the race card isn't particularly wise, but any losses should be stomach-able so why not take some risks.

Tony Carroll's Haziym is the one I am landing on at a massive price, the horse literally has one good performance in his entire UK career, it was almost a year ago at Newcastle over this trip when a neck 2nd rated 82.

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