Last Friday was the last time we had a bet on the Lucky 15 thread, and we managed to land two winners from four selections on the day.
Unfortunately, the two winners were quite short in price, which resulted in us losing half of our original stake. Disappointing given the remaining two runners finished second and weren't beaten far in the process. Legal Reform was the best-priced selection, and he was beaten by a short head-on-the-line, which is frustrating as that would have given us a decent return on the day.
I've decided to concentrate solely on the meeting at Kempton Park, and I've picked out four selections that I hope run well for us on Wednesday evening.
Cairnzy's Tips
Greydreambeliever 1/2 – Kempton 4.20
Short prices such as 1/2 are not normally my cup of tea, but given I'm solely covering Kempton, I have to put up the horses that I feel will win on the day.
This looks set to be a two-horse shoot-out between my selection, Greydreambeliever, and Eve Houghton's Glam Shadow. I've mentioned on numerous occasions my fondness towards the Eve Houghton yard, and she normally brings forward a few decent youngsters each season. Glam Shadow has the benefit of more racing experience, but she has been a frustrating sort to follow with recent form figures of 22322. Glam Shadow should have the measure of the remainder of this field, but would need to take a step forward in my opinion to get the better of the current market leader Greydreambeliever.
My selection hails from the Karl Burke yard, a trainer known for his exploits with young and upcoming sprinters. My selection wasn't fancied on debut at York last summer but defied odds of 14/1 to win. Despite running quite green throughout that contest and winning, connections felt he was worth a chance at Group 3 level on his following outing, and he finished a very respectable fifth against some decent opposition.
This contest looks like an ideal opportunity for Karl Burke's youngster to resume winning ways, and he should be tough to beat under jockey Clifford Lee, who has ridden this horse on both of his outings to date.
Mcintosh 5/2 – Kempton 6.00
This looks competitive, and you can make claims for a fair few in this field. Lady Manzor arrives here in search of a hat trick under apprentice jockey Jack Dace, but I opted for the James Horton-trained Mcintosh, who I think should have the measure of this field on handicap debut.
McIntosh makes his handicap debut on an opening mark of 75, which I think is rather underestimating his ability. Mcintosh showed clear promise on debut when chasing home Noble Victory on debut ( Noble Victory was sent off a 2/7 favourite ) and he went down by just over one length on that occasion. The form looks okay with Noble Victory running well to finish third in a competitive but small field in his next outing, with the winner now rated in the high 80s.
McIntosh was able to follow up from his debut effort to get off the mark at Wolverhampton in his most recent outing. I caught a replay of the race, and I was quite impressed with how he went about his business. The finishing margin of only half a length would tell you he needed every yard, but I thought he was well on top at the line and should appreciate this step up in trip for this contest.
Mount Athos 7/2 – Kempton 7.00
The 7.00 at Kempton looks a cracker on paper, and there are plenty arriving with chances in this competitive-looking Class 2.
I scratched my head for a while, struggling to choose between Roi De France and Mount Athos but I finally decided to swerve the market leader and take a chance on Mount Athos, who is notably James Doyle's only ride on the entire card.
James Doyle has a cracking record when riding this horse ( 4 from 4 ). Mount Athos also has a good record in this race, having won this contest the last two years running. My selection goes well fresh and should give a bold showing to land this race for a third year in a row.
Grey Fox 4/1 – Kempton 8.30
Only seven runners contest in the finale at Kempton on Wednesday, but it looks like a guessing game, with most arriving with question marks on their heads.
Legacy Power and Grey Fox are two of the horses towards the top end of the market, and notably are the two horses arriving here without a recent run. Legacy Power hasn't been seen since flopping at Goodwood last May while my selection Grey Fox has been off the course since October last year, which saw him finish a creditable second over this distance at this very same track.
Basically all of my selections form has come over the mile, but he did show a liking when sent up in distance in his last two outings at this track. Connections opted to send up in trip to 1m4f at the start of October, then upped him even further to 2m on his most recent start. He was pipped on the line to lose by a neck over 2m, but he definitely looked like a horse capable of winning over this sort of trip, and at 4/1 I thought he was the value play in this field.
Emma Lavelle has her string in decent nick at present, operating at a 24% S/R in the last 14 days. She has had 3 winners from her last four outings and I'm hoping Grey Fox can further improve her decent run of form on Wednesday night.
Advised bet – Straight win, Lucky 15
GambleAware