Despite the rain coming down at Cartmel, my original thought about the favourite being too good was true.
Shallow River went from travelling well to being in the second-to-last spot in a matter of strides. In future, I need to trust my gut instead of overthinking scenarios.
However, we did get a winner at Southwell earlier in the day. I didn't pay much attention to the market, so when I opened the race to see Pace Attack at 9/1, I couldn't believe my eyes. Instantly, I thought this was done before it started. Luke Morris was strong in the saddle, like he always is, and he booted home Pace Attack.
Fortamour 14/1 (EW, 3pl) – Ripon 4.13
With a lot of rain across the country, I think we are bound to see some weird and wacky results. I'm going to stick with what I originally thought, as that came back to bite me yesterday, so Fortamour is up.
Tipping a ten-year-old during the flat season wasn't on my bingo card, but I've seen this lad run numerous amounts of good races at Ripon, which is why 14/1 seems a little insulting. He hasn't been in tremendous form this year, but I think he is always worth a second look at this venue, as he has won here six times and been placed many more.
He has run well at this course this year, finishing a close second to a much younger horse, and he was 25/1 that day. I don't think rain-softened ground is ideal for him, but he handles it better than most of the horses in this race. It's a shame Paul Mulrennan takes the ride, as I can never get on the right side of him, but I can imagine Paul will be patient and produce him as late as possible.
Variety Act 2/1 – Wolverhampton 6.20
I did this strategy yesterday, and it worked nicely, so why change it? Luke Morris had an option of riding at Epsom or Southwell on Monday, and he chose Southwell, despite the Epsom runner being a shorter price. When the odds drifted on his mount at Southwell, it didn't look like he had chosen correctly, but he did.
Today, Luke has opted for the ride on Variety Act over a shorter-priced horse at Ripon. There is another Sir Mark horse that he rides, but that horse is 33/1, so he is going to Wolverhampton predominantly for this ride. 2/1 seems a fair price given the track record of Sir Mark Prescott and his handicap debutantes. Normally, the bookies run scared at this prospect and instantly have the horse priced close to EVS.
Based on what we have seen from this horse, he has shown glimpses of ability, but he is trying a new trip today on his handicap debut, which is normally where these horses shine from this yard.
GambleAware