Agonisingly, we had no winners on Monday.
Koffee And Kale went extremely close at Yarmouth, and when they showed the close-up on the line, I was confident that he got up in time. The photo went against him, and he had to second for a very close runner-up finish.
Dandy Magic was held up as I expected, and I didn’t enjoy the way the race unfolded. He didn’t struggle to get a run; the issue was the pace of the race. When studying the race, it looked like there were at least three or four other pace angles, but the winner wasn’t pressured, and Shane Gray was able to set the pace he wanted.
Comrade Alexi 11/4 – Leicester 3.04
Usually, I would avoid this type of race as there are far too many unknowns to take into being confident enough to have a bet, but the form of Comrade Alexi speaks for itself.
She finished seventh on her debut effort at Ascot, which doesn't sound amazing and her RPR of 66 backs that up, but when you notice that four of the horses in that race have won since, it reads very well. It's not like all of the horses towards the top of that race were the ones to frank the form; the ninth-placed 100/1 shot won next time out at odds of 66/1, which is why I really like the chances of Comrade Alexi.
Her immediate pedigree isn't great. She is by a good sire in Lope De Vega, but the Dam was a Class 6/5 horse. However, the Dam is a half-sister to the very talented Bay Bridge, which does make the pedigree a hell of a lot better.
In my opinion, Comrade Alexi deserves to be the favourite for this race, but she isn't, and I think she is being disrespected. I can understand why Lady Phillips is the favourite, as she has a good pedigree and is related to Venetia, who has been a solid horse for Ralph Beckett this year. However, when you look at both of Lady Phillips' half-siblings, they didn't win first time out, and it took a while for Venetia to find her footing. Obviously, every horse is different, but they do share similarities with family members, and she might be best watched for today and followed into next year.
Oviedo 5/2 – Leicester 4.14
When I saw the replay of Oviedo winning three runs back off a mark in the forties, I actually forgot about this horse and was shocked he was that low in the handicap.
The money was on him much more than it had ever been on him before at Ffos Las that day, and he won by a mile. He then managed to win cosily on his next start at the same track, but his winning sequence ended at Bath when he lost by small margins. Despite his winning streak finishing, I still think he is the one they have to beat, and I'd be shocked if he's not shorter in the market.
His handicap mark is now 65, but Millie Wonnacott retains the ride, and I think she is a solid 5lb claimer and is much better than her overall strike rate of 9% in the last five years.
They've let him rest up after having a fairly busy period of winning and finishing as runner-up, and I think that will have done him the world of good.
GambleAware