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Everything came together nicely for Jaramillo yesterday. Having been well backed, he hacked up at Sedgefield, bagging us an 11/1 winner. I hope plenty of you managed to get the 11/1. It is worth mentioning that a 10p rule 4 would have resulted in a return of £109 for a £10 bet (instead of £120). This has been factored into the running P/L at the bottom of today’s write-up.
| Fontwell - 14:30 |
Honneur D'ajonc |
11/2 |
On Tuesday, we’re off to Fontwell, where Honneur D'ajonc appeals ahead of the contest at 14:30, a handicap hurdle of the Class 4 variety, over an extended two-mile-one-furlong trip.
The seven-year-old hasn’t won for a while, but his performances haven’t been without promise since joining trainer James Owen, who has been in fine form of late.
Has dropped markedly in the weights
We’re now looking at a runner that must be described as well handicapped, make no mistake about that. The five-year-old sits 18 lbs below his last winning mark over timber.
It’s true that his recent efforts would suggest that he wants further than this but I wouldn’t be surprised if this step back in trip suited. After all, he has some promising efforts over this sort of distance in the form book, such as when winning a very competitive novice race at Wincanton, while he was second as a novice over an extended two miles at Taunton, finishing behind a horse that is now easily rated above this contest.
The booking of claimer Alex Chadwick is a decent one. Chadwick rode this horse to finish second on debut for James Owen, while he’s one win from one ride in the last fortnight, being used sparingly in order to protect his valuable claim.
It’s also worth noting that James Owen has rather cleverly used the services of his apprentice, winning with 23.81% of the horses ridden by the claimer. The pair also have a win/place strike rate of 42.85%.
Given what this horse has achieved in the past over hurdles, it’s fair to say that he’s clearly well handicapped, while Chadwick’s claim really does leave him looking well weighted against these.
For my money, he ticks enough boxes to be closer to the head of the market than he currently is, making early odds of 11/2 worth taking.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is -£31 (since switching to being published here rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
Nice job yesterday
Thank you :)
The value you ve been finding has been excellent. I think only one has gone off at the odds you advised at bigger odds.
I’m glad that you think so. Consistently beating the closing odds is half of the battle in the long term. Variance always does it’s thing in the short term, but if you snuff out value on a relatively consistent basis, there’s always a chance of turning a profit over time.
I haven’t backed any of the horses but hopefully there’ll be plenty of winners 🙂
Well done today . It’s hard as a follower to have 14 losers in a row (if doing a tenner) 140 quid in a fortnight is hard on any bank balance but bought it back last 2 days so that’s great . Think it’s just difficult for people to go long losing stints even if then a few winners but on other hand could have say 5 winners then nothing rest of a month. We all know it’s why it’s called gambling but nice tipping last 2 days
Thanks. Thanks also for your honest comment. To clarify, between the NAP first being published here and yesterday’s winner, there were 13 losers. Of course, nobody wants 13 losers in a row. I certainly don’t want that, but I understand and completely accept that losing runs are inevitable. They are impossible to escape, regardless of approach. Some losing runs are longer than others, some are harder to take than others, but there isn’t a tipster/bettor anywhere that doesn’t suffer losing runs. Naturally, if you’re betting on strong favourites, looking for very likely winners day in, day out, the losing runs will be less severe and less frequent, but in my opinion, you’ll struggle to grind out a profit in the long run.
Losing runs are not only inevitable, they’re regular, that’s just variance. I openly admit that my approach to this means regular losing runs, some of which will be relatively lengthy. I’m also happy to admit that I will recommend more losers than winners. That is very much the nature of the beast when looking to go against the early market. My approach is to identify the best bets that I can in terms of what I believe to be value for money, based on a variety of factors, and then let variance do its thing. Some horses will win, many won’t, but by being ahead of the curve on a regular enough basis by betting on decent price horses that go off at shorter odds (more often than not), a long-term profit can be made.
Ultimately, I know that my approach won’t be for everyone, but I believe in it, and also believe that I have something positive to offer those looking to uncover value and turn a modest profit in the long run. This may often mean sitting in a losing position in the short term, which I understand isn’t for everyone, but the same people that dislike this approach will almost certainly lose in the long run. I’d much prefer to be in front, even if only a little, in the long run as opposed to constantly chasing short-term wins.
Apologies for the long comment, just continuing to be open and honest about the way I operate.