After Friday’s timely winner at Cheltenham, things weren’t so rosy on Saturday, with Thanksforthehelp delivering his best effort for a while, but not quite pulling out enough. He’s well handicapped for sure, so don't be surprised if he pops up and lands a decent prize before too long.
| Lingfield - 14:15 |
Harry Brown |
17/2 |
A new week for the Nap of the Day column begins with a trip to Lingfield’s all-weather, where the six-furlong contest taking place at 14:15 catches the eye.
Seeking a hat-trick, Bluebells Boy is the early favourite, but I’d argue that he’s well worth taking on up in class and now seemingly very much in the grip of the handicapper, which can’t really be said for Harry Brown, who in the hands of Hayley Turner, has probably done enough to warrant a shorter price tag than 17/2.
Back at the scene of his last crime
The four-year-old hasn’t been overly campaigned, especially not since joining this yard back in June. Previously with David Simcock, he showed little when racing in Class 2 company at Ascot back in July, before failing to get competitive on soft ground at Sandown when last seen in September.
However, I’m not going to be too quick to dismiss him on the basis of his first two efforts for Peter Crate. After all, this is clearly his most suitable assignment for some time, while it’s hard to say that he’s not well handicapped, sitting 13 lbs below his last winning mark.
Where did he last win? Lingfield, over course and distance back in February of 2023. On that occasion, he won a Class 4 affair from a mark of 85. If he retains that ability, then his current mark of 72 looks lenient, that’s for sure.
In fact, this horse has two wins from two runs over C&D, while he’s won three out of ten on the all-weather in general, finishing second or third in five of the other seven. Crate’s runner has also never been out of the top three at Lingfield, winning two out of five. It’s fair to say that he acts on polytrack.
It’s also quite interesting that Crate turns to Hayley Turner, who has never ridden for the trainer before, but who has ridden this horse a handful of times. She was in the saddle for both of his C&D wins.
Peter Crate is by no means a big-name trainer, running what by all accounts is a small operation, and he doesn’t have many runners, let alone winners, though he’s had more career winners at Lingfield than anywhere else, which for my money, is another small positive.
At the end of the day, we’re talking about a well handicapped horse. A runner who has proven himself in better races than this, including at this venue, so I really wouldn’t be surprised if he outran his early odds, which should be taken by those seeking value for money.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 64 Naps) has a running P/L of +£105.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
