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We are doing the Lucky 15 thread twice a week but we were slightly busy on the weekend just gone so we're filling in with a Lucky 15 for Tuesday's racing.
Cairnzy's Tips
Lady In The Park 11/4 – Carlisle 12:30
If I had a bet on the main thread, Lady In The Park would have been my sole selection on that end of things. Given that Rizz and I are taking turns covering that side of things, it only makes sense to Include it as part of our lucky 15 bet for Tuesday's racing.
I'm a big fan of Lucinda Russel's yard and I think she has a good chance with Lady In The Park in this contest. My selection ran a blinder last time out when dropped in trip at Wetherby, outrunning her odds of 14/1 to finish fourth but only beaten by 1L in the end by the eventual winner in what was an action packed finish. She's bred to relish these longer distances and with a good recent effort to fall back on, I think there is every chance she can progress on this season.
Whenthedealinisdone 9/1 – Lingfield 2:15
The form pick is obviously Bluebellsboy for trainer Daryl Holland and jockey Luke Morris, whos recent form figures read 11311. Bluesbellboy arrives in a second attempt to land the hattrick and he should prove popular in the betting, however, he is up 6lb and up in grade so he will need to take another step forward if he is to land the goods.
The horse that I thought was being overlooked was Roger Teal's Whenthedealinisdone who in his pomp was rated in the mid to high 90s. His form has dipped significantly in the last 18 months or so and he finds himself running off a mark of 69 which makes him a well-handicapped animal if able to build on his last outing at Chelmsford, My selection finished sixth of ten last time out but he wasn't beaten far by the eventual winner ( two and a half lengths ). I thought that effort was possibly a step back in the right direction and that contest was also over the 7f which I don't feel is his optimum trip. My selection drops back to 6f for this contest which looks like the right move by connections and jockey Elisha Whittington who rode my selection last time out retains the ride for this contest.
Rizzel's Tips
Kadex 10/1 – Fakenham 3.40
Some of you with very good memories will recognise Kadex being tipped up by me at the start of last year's jumps season at this very track. He hasn't quite gone on since that win and has since moved trainers to the Welsh stable of Alan Jones.
This looks like a bit of a plan to get him back on the winning ways as he was given a 2m first time out run just over a month ago and that would have been used to blow away the cobwebs.
He is never going to be winning races over the minimum trip, but as he showed last year off a 10lb higher mark over 3m 1f he is a decent enough horse around this level. Jamie Brace takes off a further 3lbs, making him 13 lbs better off than when winning at this venue 12 months ago, so I think you can take a chance on him, especially with him likely to be good odds.
Biznieta Power 6/1 – Lingfield 12:10
Class 6 racing is often very tricky to have a bet in, and it's not the place I'd normally pay much attention to but the lightly raced Biznieta Power caught my eye in this race on her handicap debut.
There are some hardened bottom tier handicappers in this race, and it's not surprise to see James Owen having two runners in this race, both of which will likely be popular in the market due to him being in tremendous form and I'd probably have gone for Dillydingdillydong if Andrew Balding's horse wasn't in the race.
My selection has a fair bit to prove on this step up to 13f as she has only been racing over 10f, where she hasn't shown much. Last time out on her first run in 121 days she ran with more credit and left the impression there is something to work with. Her pedigree doesn't give tonnes of hope for this step up in trip, but Andrew Balding is one of the leading trainers in the UK and if he believes this step up in trip will suit, then you have to be confident. I always like the step up/down in trip for a horse's handicap debut and I thought at the prices, she was worth a chance in a poor race.
*Advised Bet – Eachway L15*
WHAT IS A LUCKY 15 BET?
A Lucky 15 bet consists of 15 unique bets, covering every possible combination that comes from backing four selections. The 15 bets are broken down like this:
– 1 fourfold accumulator
– 4 trebles, with each treble omitting one of your selections
– 6 doubles, again covering every possible combination
– 4 singles
The attraction of a Lucky 15 is that it offers many more ways to win than a standard accumulator. A Lucky 15 uses both your acca and your singles as well as producing trebles and doubles that reward you for correctly calling 2/4 or 3/4 of your selections. To cover the 15 separate bets, a Lucky 15 uses your stake 15 times. If you were to place £1 on a Lucky 15, you would be staking £15 in total across the various bets.
