Thursday’s Racing Tips – The hattrick looks to be on the cards for Nicky Henderson’s Goblet Of Fire

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Wednesday was a bit more like it for the both of us as Easy Peeler did what was expected as an EVS favourite, doing it fairly comfortably.

Maritime Lady was given a peach of a front running ride by Sylvestre De Sousa, he got the fractions spot on and the filly kept on rolling out in front. Tierney also ran a belter for Rizzel and got place money at odds of 12/1, but you could've gotten as big as 25/1 in the morning.

Cairnzy's Tips

Flaming Stone 11/10 – Sandown 3.15

I had a short-priced favourite win yesterday in the shape of Easy Peeler and I'm going to put my neck on the line again for Thursday's racing and tip up another short-priced horse.

Tipping in races full of 2-year-old horses that have only had a handful of runs is something I tend to avoid but I was really impressed with Flaming Stone last time out and she seems like the type of filly who will improve further for each race. She ran well on debut at Newmarket, finishing 6 and a half lengths of the winner Mountain Breeze. The winner had the benefit of an extra race and has since gone on to finish fourth behind Fairy Godmother at Royal Ascot and most recently beaten by a half a length in a Group 2 by Arabian Dusk.

Flaming Stone took a massive step forward from debut next time out, winning comfortably by 4L at Newbury under jockey Oisin Murphy. Both of Flaming Stone's runs have came on good and good to firm ground so the forecast good ground at Sandown will cause no issues. I'd of liked to have seen Oisin Murphy on board again, however, I can't complain about the booking of William Buick who is one of the best operators around. At the prices Del Ray is of interest at 8/1, that one won on debut and the form has been boosted with the second and fourth winning next time out, he looks the each-way angle into taking on my selection.

Connie's Rose 11/2 – Sandown 2.10

This looks tricky and the current market doesn't give you any indications either with three horses heading favouritism at the head of the market at 4/1. The horse I like is the Grace Harris trained Connie's Rose who brings the most consistent form to this race. In her last seven races, she has consistently finished within the top three, achieving two victories and four second-place finishes. She's notably in receipt of some weight from her rivals and jockey Callum Hutchinson takes off a further 3lb which makes her an even more dangerous proposition.

Connie's Rose looks versatile trip wise and the ability to operate as effectively over 5f as well as 6f is a massive positive in my opinion. My selection runs off a mark of 74 for this contest and probably needs a career best to win but she's a filly on the upgrade and there's every reason to think she can continue progressing in her current form. Connie Rose tends to go forward in her races and a stiff 5f at Sandown could play into her strengths if getting her own way out in front. I hoping she breaks well under Callum Hutchinson and he keeps things simple on her as she could be a tough nut to peg back if getting an uncontested lead.

Rizzel's Tips

Scorthy Champ 11/4 – Leopardstown 6.50

This race doesn't look like a vintage Group 3 juvenile race in Ireland with the Aidan O'Brien horses not appearing to be world beaters based on what they have finished ahead of, and the others in the race don't seem to be up to much either. So, with that said, I thought Joseph O'Brien's horse, Scorthy Champ was the horse to be on.

Scorthy Champ is a C&D winner from his run back in May. It seems a bit strange that he hasn't been on the track since winning a couple of months ago, so hopefully, he hasn't been injured and it's because they're taking their time with him as he put in an impressive debut performance at Leopardstown. He crawled out the gates and lost a few lengths at the start but quickly made up that ground and was positioned in the midfield on the rail. He travelled beautifully around the bend and was arguably going the best when Dylan Browne McMonagle started to apply a bit of pressure and when he was pulled out for his run he showed a good turn of foot and put the race to bed in less than a furlong, which saw him win by 2L. The form of the horses in behind him doesn't look like the strongest piece of form, but the way he won and did it whilst looking like the inexperienced horse which he is, it was a pleasing debut and it screamed like a horse who could fair a lot better later in the season.

His pedigree suggests that he was always going to be a precocious horse as a 2yo, as his two other siblings did very well in their juvenile campaigns. He is a half-brother to Knight who was 2/2 as a 2-year-old and landed a Group 3 on his second start, and his other half-sibling was a Group 2 winner and Group 1 runner-up in her juvenile season. The slower surface he will be facing today isn't a concern as both of those siblings I have mentioned managed to win on a slow surface, so I fully expect this lad to handle the conditions and improve for his second run.

Surpass was always going to be a short price with him being trained by Aidan and is already 2/2, but despite him looking good in his races to date, it would've been a tragedy had he not won last time out as the form looks terrible. His pedigree doesn't look to be as strong as the majority of horses who come out of Ballydoyle, so I doubt he is going to be a world-beater and I think he is worth taking on.

Goblet Of Fire 10/3 – Newbury 8.45

We'll be waiting a long time to see the outcome of this race, but hopefully, it is worth it.

It's not a great surprise to see Goblet Of Fire at the top of the market in this contest as it is a rare runner on the flat for Nicky Henderson and given this horse is 2/2 on the flat since moving to Nicky's stable, there's a lot to like.

On paper, it would look like Nicky Henderson has improved this horse by a fair amount as he managed to get a win over hurdles before winning back-to-back on the all-weather in June and earlier this month. However, Nigel Tinkler (previous trainer) managed to get three wins from Goblet Of Fire in his last four runs for the yard, so the horse was clearly progressing nicely when they decided to step him up in trip, and with two further wins on the flat since the stable move would prove that. This race is arguably his toughest assignment to date and it poses a different question now he is back on turf, but I don't see that being an issue as he is already a three-time winner on different types of ground.

He won off a mark of 66 at Wolverhampton last time out and has since gone up 6lbs in the handicap for that win, but he won that race with plenty of authority and more than the 1.5L margin would suggest as he didn't do too much when hitting the front.

Nicky Henderson is 7/19 with 4-year-olds on the turf in the last five years, which is a 37% strike rate and that has seen him produce a profit of +14.38 to level stakes if you were to back every horse blind that fell into this category, which is further enhanced by his record at this track which is 6/29 with the same age group but has a profit of +36.66.

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