Rogue Endeavour was horrific at Ffos Las.
The horse was very weak in the market. I expected the complete opposite, and for him to be very strong in the market. I actually can't comprehend how he ran as badly as he did.
Langholm was consistent as ever, but wasn't up to matching the well-backed favourite who travelled nicely into the race.
Nightime Dancer 9/2 (1pt) – Newmarket 1.50
With this race being such a small field, it could become tactical. If they don't set a good gallop, it might not suit my fancy, Nightime Dancer. However, every time I try to plan out how the race will unfold, the opposite happens, so I'm going with my gut.
The other four runners in this race have all been placed next to each other from their Royal Ascot race in the Queen's Vase. Furthur shaped the best, finishing in second, the others were between 5th and 7th. Based on that, you can say they've all got an equal chance of winning, as they are very closely matched. With my selection, he brings a totally different view of form to the table.
Nightime Dancer was third in the Derby trial at Lingfield. He ran a respectable race and probably lacked the gears over that trip against the two Ballydoyle runners who finished ahead of him. Connections then tried the Epsom Derby, and given the way he was ridden (no surprise under Jaime Spencer), he ran a fantastic race to finish 8th. He was anchored in last place, but made up a lot of ground when they turned for home. I was impressed with that effort, as the race favoured the horses near the pace. He was probably the only horse to make up significant ground from the back of the track.
Based on how strongly he finished at Epsom, the extra furlong will not be an issue for him. If it becomes a sprint, it could be a problem.
Arabian Story 13/2 (0.5pt EW) – Newmarket 4.45
I've been debating for quite a while about backing Arabian Story for this race, but in the end, I've decided to go for it.
The fact that Oisin isn't on board is quite concerning. Saeed is a big fan of Oisin, and they partner up extremely well, so to see him off this horse and on Royal Playright did put doubt in my head. Oisin is the stable jockey for Andrew Balding, but he does go for rides on other horses, like he did in the Britannia. Andrew had a runner in that race, but he opted for Saeed's horse.
This horse has a similar profile to Real World, who won at Royal Ascot a few years ago for this stable. Real World was a handicapper, won at Royal Ascot and then became a regular Group 2 horse, as well as running nicely in some Group 1s. I'm not saying that this horse is on the same level, but he is a very good horse and is still lightly raced. The improvement he has made since returning to the UK has been there for all to see. Saeed said his Meydan stint in the early months of this year was to bring him along physically, and it has clearly worked.
They believe he is going to be better over further, so I think a positive ride by David Egan will be on the cards. Charlie Applebly has a low rated horse in this race, so I'd assume that will be a pacemaker. Hopefully, David sits close to the pace if they're going a good speed, or take matters into his own hands and make it a stamina test.
At 6/1, he is effectively an each-way bet to nothing, meaning if he places, we get our money back.
GambleAware