Thursday’s Racing Tips – Questionable will relish conditions at Ffos Las

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It was a good day for the pair of us as three of the four tips were winners. Rizzel's pair were heavily punted and managed to land a double with Night On Earth going off as the favourite (tipped up at 5/1) and Nala Star also going off as a shorter-priced favourite.

Letterson Lilly was given a belter of a ride by Sean Bowen, she responded well under pressure to see off the challenge from the runner-up and confirmed the form of the Irish raider from the Gavin Cromwell yard. My other selection Call Me Ginger fluffed the start and it was game over before the race even began, which tends to be the case when you miss the start in those sorts of races.

Cairnzy's Tips

Questionable 13/8 – Ffos Las 3.25

The ground at Ffos Las is currently running heavy and similar to Carlisle they are expecting more rain, so finding a horse who will handle the testing conditions is important.

Only five go to post for this handicap race over 7f and the horse that ticked most of the boxes for me was the Kubler trained Questionable, which jockey Rob Hornby will ride. Questionable still remains a maiden after seven runs but her most recent outing at this course was a step in the right direction. My selection was runner up at this course three weeks ago when going down by just under two lengths to the Jack Channon trained Arkhalia Flynn. The form of that runner up effort has received a boost with Arkahlia Flynn following up next time out at Windsor in a Class 4.

The main danger looks to be Lunarscape for the Loughnane stable, Lunarscape brings recent winning form to the table which is more you can say for the remainder of the field at least. It took Lunarscape a fair while to get of the mark for connections and although she is bringing winning form to this race I still think she's rather exposed. She is also up 2lb for that recent success which asks further questions of her. The other horses remain completely out of sorts and would need a considerable turn of form to get the better of the two current market leaders.

Geo 10/3 – Newbury 4:15

I was tempted to have a rattle in the Racing League meeting at Southwell this evening but it looked far to competitive and ultimately those sorts of meetings are a punters nightmare as cases can be made for many. With that said, you tend to get good prices and more places on offer, so going backing selections each way is the way to go in my opinion if you do decide on following the Racing League tomorrow evening. Attacanter Racing has an eachway L15 advised on the other thread and I think he's concentrated mainly on the meeting at Southwell so if that's something you're interested in then be sure to go and check it out.

My final selection of the day comes in the shape of Eve Johnson's Geo. I've mentioned on countless occasions that I'm a massive fan of her young horses, in particular her two-year-olds who tend to be ready to go from an early stage. Geo caught my eye for a few reasons, firstly the jockey booking of William Buick is an obvious one but Geo brings some course form to this race with two fourth-placed efforts at the course recently. I caught a replay of her recent outing at this track and I thought she did well to finish as close as she did to the winner ( finished 2L behind ) as she was carried across the track that day, which of course is never ideal and will blow any horses chance of winning. The form of the race reads okay, the first and second have yet to win since however, both have remained consistent in their performances, in particular, Queue Dos for the Jamie Moore yard who has since finished runner-up on two occasions. The third however has boosted the form by winning next time out. My selection takes a step up in trip on her handicap debut which should suit, and I think she could go close in the capable hands of William Buick.

From the remainder, Carderock was interesting at the prices for trainer Richard Hannon, he's bred to stay further than the 6f he's contested over previously and should do better in handicaps. Ed Dunlops Crocodile River should also improve with experience and should do better now reverted back to 7f.

Rizzel's Tips

Laguna Boy 6/1 EW 3 Places  – Chelmsford 2.40

The Chelmsford card looks terrible unless you're into Class 6 races, but I thought their Class 5 race was decent and the odds available on Laguna Boy were more than tempting.

There are many in this race who come into it with good claims, and that's probably why the favourite isn't miles clear at the top of the market. At the time of writing, you have the bottom weight sharing favouritism with the top weight but I thought Laguna Boy was worth a chance on handicap debut solely based on his run over a mile last time out at Kempton. I'll touch on the others in the field before my selection. Mereside Madness is 2/4 on the all-weather so I can see why he is fancied to go well, but his wins on this surface from Newcastle on the Tapeta haven't been boosted and this race looks a lot tougher than the horses he beat on his previous two wins. He also has to prove he is as effective on Polytrack, though they are all all-weather courses, they do have their differences and this surface might not be to his liking as much as the the Tapeta he has raced on at Southwell and Newcastle. Shelbourne didn't get the clearest of runs in his recent race in a higher grade, so I can see why he is also vying for favouritism, but he is 1/8 and that came off a 4lb lower mark on heavy ground over 6f, so has more to prove now off top weight.

It is always a risk going for a horse on handicap debut but Stuart Williams' horse made a good impression at Kempton over a mile last time out when finishing fourth. Based on that run, I think the drop back to 7f on a tighter track will be more beneficial to him as he did try and make all last time out, but didn't quite see the final furlong out which allowed the odds-on favourite, who is clearly a very smart horse, and then the second and third horse to go past him. However, he had the others in behind getting pretty serious and under the pump before he was, apart from the winner, so I thought it was a decent effort and the form of that race looks solid. The third has since finished 4th/9 over further, producing an RPR of 81 and the runner-up has a nice pedigree, being related to 100+ rated horses, so in time, that run at Kempton could be decent.

Off a mark of 71, that looks more than workable for Laguna Boy who now gets the stable jockey on board for the first time, and that bodes well given Stuart Williams' record on the all-weather with his horses this season. Stuart is operating at a 32% SR with 3-year-olds on the all-weather this season and his yard remains in good form with five winners in the last fourteen days. To go further into the stats, he is 3/6 with this age group at today's track this year.

Hedge Fund 7/1 EW – Carlisle 3.18

Another horse which will need a bit of faith if following me with backing him is Hedge Fund who has some horrendous numbers next to his form line, but he is better than what we've recently seen from him.

Hedge Fund started off the season very brightly when finishing second to Adaay In Devon on heavy ground at Bath and then finishing 3rd/9 in a Class 2 at Sandown. The form of his seasonal reappearance has been franked on numerous occasions with the winner now being a dual Listed winner and being placed at Group 3 level on two occasions, so it was definitely mission impossible to beat that filly when they met and Hedge Fund was giving away 2lbs to her, but it was a solid performance and proof that he is a very good handicapper. Since the first two runs, his form has gone south, with him hardly beating a horse from his runs at Royal Ascot, York, Newmarket and most recently Doncaster. However, I think he is a much better horse on soft ground as the first run of the season would also suggest.

Last year, he was 2nd/4 in a Class 2 handicap on soft ground and then went to Deauville in a Listed race over 5.5f which saw him finish 4th/11 and not beaten out of site, which was an equal career best alongside his run behind Adaay In Devon. Since the run at Bath, he has not ran on soft ground once, and his most recent run was 7f on good to firm ground, so in hindsight, that was never going to be great for him. Connections must firmly believe he is on a very attractive mark as he was quietly fancied in the market when running at Newmarket when Oisin Murphy was on board, but for whatever reason he didn't fire that day either. They are making the trip up to Carlisle, which is close to a 10-hour round trip, and given the yard is 2/3 at the track since William Muir combined his training licence with Chris Grassick, it bodes well for Hedge Fund today who also gets soft ground!

He is now racing off a mark of 82 which is 8lbs lower than his seasonal reappearance, which makes him ridiculously well-handicapped. Considering he is a 3-year-old, I firmly refuse to believe he is gone at the game and he can definitely bounce back to form. He is the only runner of the day at the track for the trainer and jockey, so everything points towards a big run and his odds are very generous.

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