Thursday’s Racing Tips – Pol Roger looks good eachway value at Ayr

Inappropriate was a winner and was given a strong ride by Kaiya Fraser who is constantly proving that he is a belting 5lb claimer. The winner covers the cost of the other three runners being shocking. Apologies on that front.

The two juvenile runners at Beverley were weak in the market, noticeably Another Bungle who went off at around 20/1 and both ran like their drift in the market suggested they would. Star Mind was also weak in the market and ran no race whatsoever, but the horse which Dylan Hogan was meant to be on at York a couple of weeks ago finished second, so it makes you wonder why has he gone for the ride on Star Mind.

Cairnzy's Tips –

Jorge Alvares 3/1 – Ayr 1.42

This looks like an interesting race on paper, and a few horses caught my eye that bring strong claims to the table. The horse I finally decided on was Jorge Alvares for trainer Kevin Ryan, who will be ridden by jockey Shane Gray.

My selection remains lightly raced after only four career starts but he took his form to a new level recently when finishing fourth at York in the Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes. The Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes was a very competitive Class 2 affair, and I thought the form of that fourth placed effort was the best on offer in this contest. Jorge Alvares wasn't fancied in the betting that day when sent of at 18/1, but he ran a blinder to finish just over a length behind the eventual winner Diligently. I actually had a selection in that particular race, which was Arizona Blaze from the Adrian Murray yard. Jorge Alvares was only a length down on Arizona Blaze that day, which is strong form given that one has consistent Group level form with placed efforts behind the likes of Babouche, Henri Matisse and Shareholder. Jorge Alvares takes a step up in trip from 6f to 7f for this contest, which looks like a good move by connections given how strongly he travelled into his race at York in the Goffs Premier.

Catalyse who heads the market at 6/4 is the most obvious danger, but that one hasn't been seen since finishing 12/24 at Royal Ascot in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes. Royal Ascot was three months ago, and the layoff from racing was a slight concern for me with that one. With that said, that contest has produced multiple next-time out winners so that too is strong form to bring into this contest.

Profiteer 7/1 EW 4 Places – Ayr 5.23

Initially, I had planned to provide just one racing selection for Thursday. However, at the last minute, I decided also to include Profiteer from the Easterby yard. Choosing to offer two selections rather than one will prevent Rizz from later messaging me and calling me a lazy Irish so and so, so it's a no brainer really!

I thought Profiteer represented some eachway value in this contest, and with Bet365 offering an extra place I simply couldn't ignore him at 7/1. He's been a beaten favourite in his last three outings, and to the eye looks like he may be in the grasps of the handicapper but he has remained competitive in those previous three outings, finishing second in each and not beaten far in either of them. He steps back up in trip to 7f, which is the distance Profiteer was last successful over when getting the better of Langholm at Thirsk three months ago.

Current market favourite Half Moon Rising is probably a worthy favourite on paper, he arrives here in search of a hat trick and despite carrying top weight he still may be ahead of the handicapper given the nature of his most recent outing at Catterick last time week, which saw him storm to victory by over 5L.

Rizzel's Tips –

Pol Roger 11/1 EW 4 Places – Ayr 3.42

I think this race is all about whether the classier horses towards the top of the weights can bounce back to form, as if they can, then will have a great opportunity as this doesn't look to be the strongest of races. However, the classier horses in the race haven't shown much for a long time, and I think this race can be fought out between Aviemore and Pol Roger, with maybe Financer finishing the tricast off.

I've decided to go with Pol Roger who is a course regular at Ayr and is a likeable, consistent performer for Michael Dods. He has form tied in closely with Aviemore, as they met in August which saw my selection get the upper hand over that horse, finishing a couple lengths ahead of the Johnston runner as the pair finished second and fourth. The form of that race has worked out nicely with the winner, Faylaq, winning at Doncaster last week and obviously, Aviemore has won since and is carrying a penalty as a result of a romp at Chester on heavy ground on the weekend just gone. My selection was giving away 4lbs to Aviemore that day and today he is in receipt of 4lbs, so the 8lbs swing in the weights should confirm those placings despite Aviemore clearly being in good form.

I think you've got to look past the third of five on Pol Roger's last run as it was over 2f more than today's trip, and going off his run of four straight runner-up finishes prior to that, he is a big player, especially at this venue where he has won twice at earlier this season. He is a horse who likes to race prominently and I think that's the place to be in this race as Aviemore will more than likely want to go forward, and given I think he is one of the strongest players in this race, I wouldn't want that horse getting a headstart.

Cheshire Dancer 7/2 – Ayr 4.15

Yorkshire Lady ties in closely with the form of Pol Roger from my first selection, so I expect her to run well, especially at this track as she won the race I've  tipped up Pol Roger in from back 2022. I've gone for Cheshire Dancer in this as I think she is still on a good handicap mark and might be able to progress further with some strong form under her belt.

Hugo Palmer's 3-year-old filly on Phoenix In Spain has run some good races over shorter this season, including a win at Newcastle. She has run well in defeat since that win, including a third at Ascot, and a middle-of-the-pack finish at Goodwood at the Glorious Goodwood meeting where she was hampered at the start and didn't appear to enjoy the track. Last time out she was upped to 10f for the first time and she faired nicely, finishing second of nine and was only beaten by a horse who looked well ahead of his handicap mark. She was slow out of the gates but was rushed up to the back of the eventual winner. She travelled nicely throughout and had a private battle in the final furlongs with the winner, she eyeballed the winner but didn't have enough to beat him, but the margin of two lengths was definitely exaggerated as Oisin Murphy didn't ride out the final 50 yards when he knew Cheshire Dancer wasn't going to go past. Given I think the winner was ahead of his mark, surely Cheshire Dancer falls in that category as well.

It was good to see her run so well at 10f for the first time at Sandown as it cements that she stays the trip out nicely as Sandown is a stiff track, especially in the straight where the hill will catch you out if you don't have the stamina.

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