Thursday’s Racing Tips – Opening Bid looks far too big of a price going for the back-to-back

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Pique returned a winning selection for the thread yesterday, winning at advised odds of 5/2 after being backed into 15/8 throughout the day. 

I'll be honest, the win didn't look likely throughout the race, with Pique being nudged along for a few strides a few times whilst also sitting in last position throughout most of the contest. They went a fair clip out in front, which was always going to set the race up for those travelling best in behind. My selection warmed to the task before entering the business end, and she ploughed through the mud to swoop on past in the final couple of furlongs and win with the minimum of fuss.

Felix Summus was ridiculously weak in the market and ran as the market suggested. Holywell shaped nicely on debut and I don't think he was given a hard time by the jockey as he was in striking distance in the final straight but the jockey didn't look like he wanted to push the buttons until jumping the last, probably so he avoided a ban for not achieving the best position. He is one for next time around.

Cairnzy's Tips

The Caltonian 11/1 EW – Ayr 3.25

I may be barking up the wrong tree with tipping up The Caltonian, but I can't help but feel that this lad is slightly overpriced at 11/1 and he represents a decent each way bet against this field in my opinion.

My selection is more known for his exploits on the artificial surface, and he was bang in form during the start of the year, winning three on the bounce at Newcastle as well as a few runner-up efforts. Those performances earned him a respectable OR of 89. My selection is rated 79 on the turf, which is a workable mark for The Caltonian on a going day and I believe there is definitely wiggle room for him at this sort of level.

My selection was last seen when soundly beaten into third at this course over 7f, but I don't believe the 7f is his optimum trip and for that reason alone I'll draw a blind eye to that particular run.

I think the Caltonian is better over 6f, which he drops to for this contest. Notably, the last time The Caltonian ran on turf over 6f, he finished just over a length behind Alfa Kellenic, which is red hot form given that one has won six on the bounce and is now rated in the low 100s. Prior to the race just mentioned, my selection finished only half a length behind Kevin Ryans Venture Capital, which is also strong form as that one is now rated 92, having won since and run with credit in some competitive handicaps.

Linda Perrett has booked jockey Danny Tudhope for the ride, which is an eye-catching booking given he has never ridden the horse in its 29 career starts. Danny Tudhope has a fair strike rate when riding at Ayr operating at a 15% S/R and his record when riding for Linda Perrett isn't too bad either 5/16 31%, +£51 to a £1 level stake.

Rizzel's Tips

Lmay 4/1 – Bath 3.10

This race could easily throw up a whacky result due to it being bottomless ground at Bath, and it probably would be a wise idea to dodge it completely, but I do think testing ground is something which Lmay has been wanting for some time, even though she has form on all ground types.

You have improving horses who are a lot lower rated than many of these in this race, but due to the ground they have to be respected, but it would still be a surprise if the likes of Entracement or Loughville were to win this. The former loves this type of ground but has won in lesser races than this and when encountering heavy ground she has done it on Goodwood, which is a completely different type of track to Bath so despite her ability on this ground I will happily dodge her.

Marie's Rock had me thinking as on her day over the jumps she is top class, but I've always felt that she is better on decent ground. She has some decent pieces of form from the jumps on testing ground, but good to soft is where we see her at her best. Flat racing is totally different and her sole run on the flat 138 days ago was a good effort and the form looks solid, but I have reservations about the heavy ground with further rain coming. If she was to win, it would not be a shock at all.

Lmay is a strange horse, she has the ability to win races like this, but she isn't the most consistent horse, which is my main concern. She has shown a liking for soft ground when finishing 3rd at Doncaster over 14f in a Group 2 last year behind Sumo Sam and One Evening. It's a year on, but the form of One Evening since that race makes that line of form very solid. Lmay hasn't encountered ground that soft since, but as second at Royal Ascot on good to firm behind Belloccio, and some of the horses in behind have franked the form. Last time out was a return to form when she ran in Germany in a Group 2 on good to soft ground, finishing 4th/8, and if she can reproduce that, she could be tough to beat.

I think the heavy ground, though it's not a given as she has never raced on it before, she could relish it. She is by Frankel who has produced many soft ground horses i.e. Cracksman. The Dam side of her pedigree screams soft ground horse as well as her half-sister, Estrange, was impressive on soft ground on debut a month or so ago.

Opening Bid 5/1 – Exeter 3.33 (2pt)

I can't remember which race it was, but I did stick up Opening Bid around this time last year when he won and it wouldn't surprise me if it was in this exact race which he won 12 months ago.

This race doesn't look like a vintage renewal despite Cat Tiger making a return to Paul Nicholls, who would be of interest if the ground was testing and if David Maxwell wasn't on board. I see this as a perfect opportunity for Opening Bid to do the back-to-back as he has dropped down the handicap to 2lbs below when winning this last year and he has put in some solid performances over the summer to suggest he is good form.

Opening Bid is a fantastic jumper of a fence and in small fields like today he can often get free reign on the front and Bryan Carver is allowed to dictate the pace to how he sees fit. Once in a rhythm, especially round a course like Exeter where the fences in the final straight do come relatively quickly, it could be a tough ask for the others to catch him.

I'm hoping not too much rain lands, but even if it does, Exeter is good and good to firm in places so the worst case scenario is good to soft, but even on that ground Opening Bid is more than capable of winning as he won on that surface last year off a mark of 116. I think he should be favourite, so the odds for him at the moment are more than generous.

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