Thursday’s Racing Tips – Newtonian is a dark horse in a very weak contest at Warwick

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The good form continued on Wednesday, as On To The Rouge managed to win the bumper at Market Rasen in convincing style under Brian Hughes.

There was a small amount of money for my selection; he went off at 4/1 after being advised at 7/1, and the race unfolded how I thought, apart from the Fergal O'Brien horse being in second place, which was a tad surprising. The race didn't look strong on paper, and the main horses to beat didn't look suited by the ground, so it's nice when it all comes together, especially in bumper races, which is definitely not my strong point!

Rizzel's tips

Newtonian 16/1 EW (4pl) – Warwick 2.57

As the end of the jump season gets closer, the racing seems to be getting worse. However, there is still value to be found, and I think Newtonian is worth a few quid in this very poor Class 5 handicap hurdle.

The horses towards the top of the weights do not interest me at all. I thought that the ones to be backing in this race were the ones who are carrying the smaller weights, with Newtonian falling into that category. My selection is not a horse you can rely on, as he has only managed to win one race in his 21 starts over hurdles, with only a further three efforts inside the places. Despite this, I believe that he has his ideal conditions for today's race, which is at Warwick, on good ground and running off a good handicap mark.

His sole win came at Warwick over one furlong shorter on good ground last May off a mark of 79. Today, he runs off a mark of 77 but gets further assistance from Cameron Iles, who claims 5lbs, so he is effectively running off a mark of 72. It can be dodgy backing horses who have apprentices on board, but Cameron has shown his worth enough times when riding winners for the Tom Lacey stable, and I've watched him in the saddle on numerous occasions, and he is good value for the claim he has.

Ideally, you'd have wanted to see a bit more from this horse coming into this race, especially last time out where he had his ideal conditions at Hereford, but with how inconsistent this horse is, it isn't surprising that he chucked in that type of performance. However, if he can bounce back to the level he was at this track last summer, we could be cooking on gas. He has run well on a couple of occasions this season off a mark of 82.

I understand that the favourite is ahead of the handicapper after winning recently and not being hiked in the weights, but we see on many occasions that quick turnarounds, especially over the longer trips, are not always profitable.

Zmiinyi 9/2 – Warwick 3.27

I could be getting this totally wrong, but I feel like Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls have put Zmiinyi away over the winter period for a crack over fences when the ground is drier, so that is why I am chancing Zmiinyi in today's race at Warwick.

We have Yes And Yes arriving to this race carrying a 7lb penalty for a recent success and he has been priced up accordingly. He wasn't strongly supported in the market that day, so it was a bit of a surprise for him to win, so I don't think the form is too strong to go off, despite being ahead of a recent winner in Idealko. Ceowulf is another horse who will be towards the head of the market after showing an improved level of form, but I just can't escape the Bailey & Nicholls horse, which could be ahead of the handicapper.

One of my go-to betting strategies when a new jumps season happens is backing Kim Bailey runners over fences when they have very little experience over hurdles, as they are fantastic at having their horses well handicapped whenever they make the transition across. This horse didn't manage to win on his chasing debut, but the form of his runner-up finish looks a lot better than it probably was deemed to at the time it happened. The winner, Eyed, has since improved from being 100 rated to now being 123, which has seen him land two more races since and a further place. The third-placed horse managed to win next time out (beating Zmiinyi), so that enhances the form even further.

On his next two starts over fences, my selection didn't look as good, but I think that might be due to the ground. He ran on soft and good to soft on those two starts, being a 5/6F in one of them, but he hasn't been on the track since mid-December, so that is why I believe they've put him away and waited for better ground. He is running off a mark of 81, which is 1lb lower than his chase debut, so if he is fit after a layoff, he could be up to winning this.

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