Thursday’s Racing Tips – Major Fortune can keep up the good form and land the Pertemps qualifier

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Cairnzy's sole runner who made the long trip up to Scotland was well backed in and ran out an easy winner. It was nice to see Cairnzy find a winner on a day I wasn't confident in any selections. Today, I've picked out three fancies over the jumps in Ireland and the UK.

Rizzel's Tips

Saint Sam 2/1 – Clonmel 2.40

I completely understand that given away weight at this level can be very punishing and extremely tough to do, but I do think that the form that Saint Sam has been in from his recent runs, he makes plenty of appeal against today's opposition, despite shouldering top weight.

In terms of ground and trip and recent form, I'd have to say that Saint Sam was clear at the top of my list for winning this race. On old form, Fakir D'Oudairies would win this race doing handstands as he was brilliant as a chaser in his prime, but sadly, his time at the top appears to be over based on his runs over the last twelve months. I'd still rate the Joseph O'Brien horse as the main threat as if they can rekindle that fire, he is a dangerous horse to underestimate, but on recent form, he has a lot of questions to answer.

Saint Sam feels like he has been around for a lot longer than he actually has, as he is still only a 7-year-old. He has plenty of experience over fences despite his age and arrives in good form from his two runs over hurdles in France and at Cork. The form of those hurdle races isn't particularly great, but it's proven that hit fitness is on point and will be better than most in this race. The run over fences before the two over hurdles looks decent as he was second behind Easy Game and earlier in the season he beat a very solid chaser in Riviere d'Etel.

Solness also has to be respected with two recent chase wins, but this rates tougher than those two assignments.

Destroytheevidence 6/4 – Newbury 1.40

The way that Kim Bailey has started off the new season, it's not a surprise that Destroytheevidence made a winning chase start at Chepstow last month, and the way he won, I get Chianti Classico vibes from this horse, so I'm expecting him to win again in today's race off top weight.

Today's race has a couple of interesting runners who could cause some problems with my selection, but in the end, I do believe Destroytheevidence will come out victorious. Collector's Item was poor for me when I tipped him up last year but has since won, which seems a bit of a constant theme of me picking them at the wrong time. Rock My Way was stuck up for me on his last start earlier in the year, he went through the race like the winner but was simply outstayed by a Nicholls horse. He has since moved stables and has to be respected, but I think he is vulnerable to another stronger stayer, and I think the Kim Bailey horse is that. As for the other horses, they don't really tickle my fancy, but I do expect the Nicholls horse to turn good at some point over fences, with how the majority of their horses are running first time out, I'm happy to swerve him.

My selection had some good pieces of form over hurdles, with the second in a Grade 2 behind Shanagh Bob being the stand-out piece. He was then poor over hurdles after that run at Cheltenham, especially the Grade 2 at Doncaster where the winner was previously behind him at Cheltenham, but he has proven he is still a good horse and one to follow based on his success at Chepstow. It's hardly a surprise he has made a quick transition to fences as he is a full brother to Arizona Cardinal who is a smart handicapper over fences, and from this lad's frame, he has always been destined to jump a fence.

I briefly mentiond how this horse reminded me of Chianti Classico, well he won the same Chepstow race at the start of last year off a 3lb higher mark, so if Kim is plotting a similar path to Chianti, he should be good enough to win this race off top weight.

Major Fortune 6/4 – Newbury 2.52

With the top two in the weights being runners at the Cheltenham Festival for the finale of the Pertemps, and Monmiral winning the race, I think both of their focus will be to simply qualify for the race again, and try and get in off a better mark, making them a good contender for the race in March. American Sniper is on a decent mark but is probably better over slightly shorter, and his form isn't great at the moment. Lastly, Henry's Friend had a good novice chasing campaign last year, and this race will be an opener for him, so it seemed like a no-brainer to go for Major Fortune.

Dan Skelton's 6-year-old runner improved through the handicap last year when he started off his wins from 79 rated and he is now 125 rated, and managed to win on his seasonal return over 2m, which is definitely too short for him, but it shows how far he has progressed and that he is still ahead of the handicapper that he can win races when out of his comfort zone.

As I've already eluded to, I think this race is set up for Major Fortune to win, with the others in the race not really being fussed about whether they'll win it or not, with maybe the outsider of the bunch, American Sniper being one to look out for as on his day he could cause an upset.

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