Like a lot of recent days, Wednesday's tips did not run – Wincanton was abandoned due to a lot of rain and Bring The Action, who was meant to run at Wetherby, was a non-runner for reasons I am unsure of.
We like to take turns on this page between myself and Cairnzy, doing alternating days, but he is home late from work tonight and wants to watch the Everton game, so I am back for Thursday's racing.
Rizzel's tips
Heros 13/2 – Taunton 3.00
I can't believe the price Heros is available at in this five-runner handicap chase over 2m 6f. Given how good a trainer Venetia Williams is and how well she trains her chasers, I was expecting a few points shorter on Heros at the very least, so seeing him at this price is definitely valuable.
I understand why Good Friday Fairy is the favourite, but he is far too short. He has gone up 8lbs for his romp last time out but that puts him on a mark of 110. Yes, he has won off that mark before, but he has struggled since then and managed to capitalise off a much lower mark last time out. So he will find this tougher and 5/4 is practically calling him an easy winner if he doesn't make mistakes.
Heros hasn't been in great form this season, but the attractive part of backing this horse is that he is 2/2 at Taunton. He won on his first two chase starts at the back end of 2023 at this track, and despite him still being above the handicap marks of the two wins, I think he is of serious consideration now back at his happy hunting ground.
He won off 106 and 112. The last win was impressive, as it turns out that he beat a very decent handicapper into the runner-up spot. The runner-up that day was a horse called Raffle Ticket, who was rated 129 at the time and is now rated 143. Since then, he has won decent class 3 races off higher marks, so in hindsight, that win off 112 was a nice start to life over fences.
Since the two wins at this course, he hasn't managed to win, but he was second out of six at Wetherby off a mark of 116, losing by a neck, and then he finished second to Prairie Wolf, who is also a good handicapper in and around this level or slightly higher. This year he has had two runs, he was better last time out compared to his reappearance, and with two runs under his belt he could be about to strike and seeing that Venetia has opted for this track it's almost a pointer to that they fancy their chances.
Ned Fox gets the ride and removes 3lbs, so he is effectively on his last winning mark. Obviously, we'd rather have Charlie Deutsch in the saddle, but Ned is a decent claimer and removing that weight is something I won't moan about.
Invincible Nao 16/1 (PaddyPower/WilliamHill) – Uttoxter Midlands National Ante Post
Though there is nothing else catching my eye for Thursday's racing, I have noticed that an old winning selection of mine, Invincible Nao, has been entered for the Midland National.
After this horse won the national race at Plumpton, I said that he will more than likely be aimed at the Eider or Midlands National and I am very pleased to see they have gone for one of those races. This horse looks like he could be ridiculously well handicapped after only going up 3lbs in the handicap for the recent success, which was better than the winning distance suggests. He looks like a proper stayer and should not have any problems with the trip.
Obviously, with antepost betting comes the risk that he won't turn up, but if he does, I cannot see him being anywhere near 16/1 so he is worth a small bet. I'm going for a win on the nose.
In December 2020 we sadly 
🇺🇸
Charles Town Race 1…Bustier. 9/4 Bet365.
The current favourite has been god awful in 2 runs at Mahoning Valley and now shifts barns but I be amazed if it’s still favourite at the off and give up 🤷 if it wins! 😉
GL and say well done to the winners yesterday although I seen none it was very quiet?
Just as well Bustier ✅
🇺🇸 🌒 🦉
Yankee and possible singles
Charles Town -Race 5…King Kontie 3/1 (7/4 cove bet top 3)
Race 6…Over The Bull 6/4
Race 7..Duncan Idaho EVS
Race 8…Bulls Legacy 9/2 (cover bet top 3 11/4)
Gl
Till tomorrow 👉
Bit better
Won 9/4
3rd (possibly money back)
5th 👎
1st
1st 9/2
Hi all
Since the h’cap weights came I’ve done some trial runs on the trend analysis. I will need to do them again once final decks are out as some horses are entered in multiple races.
I’ve also gone in on a few more as follows
Fred Winter NATURALLY NIMBLE 10/1
Same owner / trainer combo as last year’s winner.
German breds have won 2 of the past 5 runnings.
Is a little high in the weights based on trends but hasn’t been too harshly treated by the handicapper getting just 3lbs tax.
Ultima KING TURGEON 20/1
Won a Grade 3 over 3m 2f at the December meeting beating Our Power 3L with last year’s winner Chianti Classico a further length back in 3rd and is 1-1 at the track.
All of the last 12 winners had at least 1 run at the track previously with 7 of the past 12 previous winners.
He then finished 3rd back in h’cap company a short head behind KATATE DORE who well and truly franked the form last weekend and will be 15lbs better off with him here.
He then went to Musselburgh for the Edinburgh National but was pulled up which is a negative however he’s normally prominent when running (which is a positive for the Ultima) but this race he was held up out the back and never travelled a yard.
Whether that was just something they decided to try or it was the plan is unknown but worked as he was dropped a pound.
Trainer David Pipe’s yard is enjoying a bit of a resurgence this season which is good to see and he knows what it takes to win this race as he is the joint most successful trainer of the Ultima.
More to follow
Morning all
Yakharbar 1.35n 14-1
Zephlyn 2.10n 15-2
To much 2.45n 8-1
Our absent friends 3.20n 10-1
Yahooby 4.30n 15-2
Ew singles & ew lucky31☘️☘️gl all
Pertemps BUGISE SEAGULL 33/1 lads 25/1 most firms
Last year had some strong form finished 3rd in a Grade 1 at the Aintree festival behind Brighterdaysahead . He was also 3rd not beaten far in a listed race behind Handstands and Jango Baie.
He went chasing at the start of this season but that went horribly wrong so is back over the sticks.
The last 2 winners have also reverted back from chasing careers so that bodes well.
He hits almost all of the trends except he’s just 1lb short of the ideal as 10 of the past 12 winners were rated 140 or higher and trainer Charlie Longsdon has never had a festival winner but is currently in good form.
The Irish horses have been fairly spanked in the weights by the handicapper so I think at the prices he’s worth a nibble.
Kim Muir MIDNIGHT OUR FRED 8/1
Has been well found in the market since the weights came out having only been given 1lb by the handicapper.
Finished 2nd in the Paddy Power Chase at Christmas behind Percival Legallois who came out and won a hurdle race nto.
Further behind was Nick Rocket who won his next 2 including the Thyestes easily and back in 5th was Will Do who was just touched off in the Listed Grand National trial lto so he brings very strong form to the table.
He also has course experience which is a positive as 7 of the past 12 winners had previously ran at the track
Hi DC. What’s your thoughts on the Gordon Elliot trained Wodhooh?
It’s last run at Cheltenham reads very well.
Beat Joyeuse, Take No Chances and Royale Margaux who have all franked the form since.
Last I checked it was entered in the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe.
Hi Smoothsailor,
Difficult to know where his ceiling is with regards to his rating. He is progressive but has 11lbs more on his back and that won’t be easy for a 5yr old. You’re right about his form though as it was well and truly franked by Joyeuse who now has 15lbs more on his back.
Of the 2 races the trends give him a better chance in the MP as 5yr olds have a poor record in the Coral. That race usually suits more battle hardened horses.
He’s 2nd fav for the MP for a reason behind the plot job that is KOPECK DE MEE and he’s that price for a reason given Elliotts record in the race. Not sure if 6/1 is worth taking now as you will probably get better on the day but definitely has ew claims.
Smoothsailor
I’ve just gone a bit deeper into the trends and one that’s a big negative is
Horses that ran in a class 2 lto are 0-102 in the Martin Pipe.
On the flip side the best trend is horses that won lto have an excellent record in the race with 8 winners.
The deeper you go the more the head melts !!
Just watched a preview evening and Elliott was on the panel.
He said WOODHOOH will go for the Martin Pipe and he is very pleased with his mark and he won’t be far away.
maciver 2.15 well done all winners yesterday
payment plan 2.10