Yesterday’s bet was a non-runner in the end. Nothing ventured, nothing gained and all that.
Moving on to Thursday, I’m interested in the 14:35 at Lingfield, a Class 5 handicap chase over a near three-mile trip. Up in distance slightly, Chris Gordon’s Summer In Milan rates as a decent bet all the time 11/2 is available.
| Lingfield - 14:35 |
Summer In Milan |
11/2 |
The lightly-raced and far-from-fully exposed six-year-old races today off the back of a decent third when stepping up in trip at Fontwell last time out, and with this extra emphasis on stamina not expected to hinder the gelding, more improvement could be on the cards.
Dropped 1 lb by the handicapper, Summer In Milan steps into what is a slightly lesser race here, at least in terms of strength in depth, which is a plus, as is the fact that the horse he beat into fourth last time out has since gone on to score in a race far from dissimilar to this.
In-form trainer no stranger to success in this sort of race at Lingfield
Trainer Chris Gordon has had his string in decent condition of late, winning with 23.81% of his runners in the last fortnight, while son Freddie, who claims 3 lbs and is in the saddle today, has been used to pleasing effect recently too, winning with 36.36% of his rides in the last two weeks.
Moreover, Gordon does quite well with these types at Lingfield, winning with 11 of his last 33 Lingfield chasers (Class 4 or worse) that were either remaining or dropping in grade having had at least one start during the current season.
It’s also interesting how this horse performed when last ridden by claimer Freddie Gordon, who was on board for a fourth (out of 17) in a maiden hurdle back in October 2024, when he finished ahead of a few horses to have since won races of this nature, while he wasn’t too far behind an animal that is now rated 109. The second from that race has since won from a mark of 120. Such form suggests that this runner will be up to seriously challenging in races of this type before long.
To my eyes, there are more than enough positives, indicating that this runner should be a little more fancied than early odds of 11/2 would have us believe. Therefore, he goes down as a value bet.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 94 Naps) has a running P/L of +£25.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
