Last week, I’d held back a ‘Nap of the Day’ slot until Sunday, only for the site to go down for a few days, so it’s been a while since this page was last in action, but we’re back ahead of Thursday’s action.
| Exeter - 13:55 |
Sizable Sam |
22/1 |
On Thursday, I’m interested in the 13:55 at Exeter, where to my eyes, Sizable Sam looks overpriced at 22/1. Owned by a syndicate called ‘The Hopefuls’, I’m hopeful that this one can outrun his generous-looking price tag.
This horse returned from a mammoth lay-off in late November, running for the first time in over 600 days at Newbury. He absolutely needed the run and got nowhere near competitive, pulling up before the third last.
After such a lengthy break, it may well be that he needs this run before connections can think about landing a prize, and if that’s the case, so be it. However, if that reappearances has blown away the cobwebs and he is ready to rock and roll from his newly reduced mark, then I really do feel that he can get far more competitive than the chunky early odds suggest.
Has C&D form in the book for a trainer who loves Exeter
First and foremost, prior to his hefty absence, the gelding won a Class 3 contest over course and distance, beating a horse into second that would rate right at the top of this contest, so it’s not as if he hasn’t already proven himself over both C&D and at this level. He won that race from 5 lbs higher in the handicap too.
As a chaser, he remains quite unexposed, so once race readiness is no longer an issue, if he retains the ability shown in 2023, then he could easily win better races than this.
In general, he’s done little wrong over fences, finishing second over C&D at Wincanton in addition to that win back in February 2023, while he runs here for an in-form trainer, a trainer who knows how to prepare one at Exeter.
Jeremy Scott has a 31.82% strike rate at Exeter in the last year, which is not something to ignore. It’s also worth noting that when running between November and February, in both codes, this horse has five wins and five places to his name. If we ignore reappearance runs, he has five wins and two places from nine. Not bad at all.
Am I slightly crazy for putting up a horse at 22/1 for the ‘Nap of the Day’ page? Probably, though I am very much of the opinion that, for the reasons stated above, such a price offers value for money, and let’s face it, what’s the worst that can happen?
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 74 Naps) has a running P/L of +£5.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
