The Defiant didn’t really defy much on Wednesday. Well, in the sense that he delivered what was far from a pleasing effort, he defied me, so I suppose that’s something. Anyway, no dice.
| Wetherby - 13:30 |
Mackenburg |
11/1 |
Moving on to Thursday, I like the look of the third race at Wetherby, ahead of which Mackenburg catches the eye at chunky odds of 11/1.
No spring chicken, this experienced campaigner returned from a 152-day break back in late November to run respectably at Doncaster and could now take a step in the right direction from what appears to be a lenient mark.
His record in races of this nature is hard to knock
When racing from a mark of 140 or less, in Class 3 company or worse, this horse doesn’t often perform badly, winning nine of 16 such races, placing in three of the other seven. He’s also a multiple soft ground winner.
Not only does he have a very good Class 3 (or worse) record when racing under a certain handicap rating, but he also has some rather positive form in the book at Wetherby.
When he last raced over course and distance (late 2023), he was beaten into second by just a short head in a Class 3 race that I’d argue was slightly better than this. On that occasion, he raced from a mark 138 and carried 11 st, 12 lbs. His mark here is 134 and he’ll carry 11 st, 11 lbs.
We’re talking about a horse that has won several races of this nature before, doing so from higher marks, while he’s also won off the back of similar mini (55 days) breaks.
In three runs at Wetherby, two of which came over C&D, he’s never finished out of the first three. Put this together with everything else, including the fact that Donald McCain has a good record at the Yorkshire venue, with top jockey Brian Hughes in the saddle, 11/1 is definitely worth taking by those seeking a slice of value for money.
I’ll end by saying that I really can’t see a price of 11/1 (available at bet365 at the time of writing) holding, so if you see this any time soon and are interested, I’d get involved sooner rather than later.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 86 Naps) has a running P/L of +£15.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
