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Well, it's safe to say that I was definitely hoping for more out of Ten Dimes, who failed to land a blow at Kempton yesterday. Unfortunately, she won't be the last horse to disappoint.
On Thursday, my Nap goes at Brighton, where the race taking place at 16:20 is the contest in focus. The horse to focus on is Rogue Rosie, who’ll arrive at the south coast venue off the back of two decent efforts, one of which came in a slightly better race than this.
| Brighton 16:20 |
Rogue Rosie |
5/1 |
The likes of Otago and River Wharfe have both won recently and are entitled to respect, though neither look particularly well handicapped, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a while before we saw that pair score again.
At early odds of 5/1, Rogue Rosie ticks plenty of boxes, perhaps too many for such odds to be considered anything other than a little generous. I certainly won’t be surprised if the mount of Luke Morris shortens in the betting.
Less exposed than most in this line-up
Alice Haynes’ filly is yet to be fully exposed, especially over this trip. Having performed well to finish a close-up third in a better race than this over six furlongs at Chepstow in August, she stepped up to tackle seven furlongs last time out.
Beaten just a length, again at Chepstow, she finished third on that occasion too, though I’d argue that she’s better than the bare result suggests. She was caught in a poor position and was forced to switch at a key moment. The winner of that contest has since won again.
The speed rating that she produced at Chepstow recently ranks as the highest last-time-out figure in here, while the form of her first run at that venue tells me that she really should be a big player in what is quite honestly a weak race, one that lacks depth.
This is also a runner that performed well in better races than this last season, often performing as if she’d go on to do well over seven furlongs. She has a big opportunity to do just that here.
Of course, this is far from high grade stuff, so anything really can happen, but for my money, you can pick more holes in the others, and she’s clearly a bigger player than odds of 5/1 would have us believe.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£0.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
Raced in a Class 4 on Heavy ground last year, finished 2nd over 5f so maybe needs 6f….this is Class 6. Going by that it should have a really good chance
Sorry mate your racing tips are terrible I can give better tips on horses
You won’t be reading tomorrow then :) It’s a game of opinions. Thanks for the comment.
Keep the faith I guess could get 14/1 winner tomoz back well Infront but yeah are hard losing runs . Need a week of double figure winners come on man it’s easy (joke) lol
Some people would have you believe that it is easy mate. I believe in quality over quantity and focusing on the long term picture. It’s a long game. Of course, losing runs are hard. Hopefully you’ll keep the faith and we’ll arrive at a decent long-term profit. At the end of the day, I’ve tipped 38 Naps here, virtually no favourites when tipped, many at big prices that have gone on to be well backed, and my profit-and-loss figure is -£10.00 (using £10 level stakes as an example). That’s hardly a disaster, let’s be realistic. Are those criticising my approach doing better than -£10 after 38 bets? Personally, I doubt it.
Also, it’s worth mentioning that 38 bets is still not long term. Let’s see where the P/L stands in several months time. I’d also be curious to find out what the P/L of anyone criticising my approach looks like in several months time.