Well, Kerry Lee does know how to ready one at Uttoxeter, but she certainly didn’t ready Mister Wilson, who folded rather tamely on Tuesday. Back to the drawing board.
| Newcastle - 14:17 |
Followeroffashion |
13/2 |
On Thursday, my focus is on the all-weather meeting at Newcastle, where ahead of the contest taking place at 14:17, a six-furlong nursery, Followeroffashion stands out as a viable bet all the time odds of 13/2 are available.
Raced just four times, the Archie Watson runner took a marked step in the right direction when racing over course and distance for the first time back in November, and with that effort under her belt, the filly may just be ready to lay down a serious challenge.
With a clear run, she can be a big player here
After three modest efforts, the two-year-old showed that she’s starting to get the hang of things over C&D last time out, travelling well in rear, before being denied a clear run as they moved beyond the two-furlong pole. Despite not getting the run of the race and encountering traffic issues, she did make late headway, running on well for fourth in the closing stages.
Luck wasn’t on her side that day, but in what will be a slightly less congested race, she could very easily gain compensation if reproducing the same level.
On the speed ratings that I use, she rates as the best of this bunch on the clock, courtesy of that recent C&D effort, which as far as I’m concerned is a clear plus.
It’s also positive to report that trainer Archie Watson does well at Newcastle, while he’s often used the claim of Laura Coughlan to good effect in recent times. Coughlan’s claim has been kept under wraps a little of late, with her services used rather sparingly, yet to devastating effect, with the 3 lb claimer operating at a 100% strike rate in the last fortnight.
More positive still is the fact that Watson is a trainer who over the years has done quite well with non-handicap runners on the all-weather. Since 2009, he has a 21% strike rate with such horses. When put together with everything else, that stat makes 13/2 (13.3% implied probability) look slightly generous, let’s be honest.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 73 Naps) has a running P/L of +£15.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
