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Unfortunately, King David, who was nibbled at before going off at 5/1 having been tipped at 6/1, didn’t run like a king at Kempton last night. No crown for him.
| Southwell - 19:00 |
Eligible |
12/1 |
On Thursday, I’ve got my sights set on the evening meeting at Southwell, where ahead of the 19:00 contest, a Class 5 race over seven furlongs, Eligible catches the eye.
A few hold chances here. How Impressive is down as the early favourite and he’s certainly well fancied by the night-before market after winning last time out, but I’m questioning whether he can follow up under a penalty, which means he gives weight away all round.
The likes of How Impressive, Cancan In The Rain and Assessment are all likely to take each other on for the lead, which could set this one up for a finisher. Eligible is definitely that.
Return to Southwell should suit
This is very much a horse who knows how to run his race at Southwell. The eight-year-old has won four times at the Nottinghamshire venue, winning three out of six over course and distance. If we look at his C&D runs from today’s mark or lower, he’s two wins from two runs.
In general, it’s fair to say that this lad has not fired on the turf this season, but there have been signs of life in recent months, while he's recently been freshened up. He now returns from 121 days off, and he’s run well before off the back of similar rests, including on the all-weather.
On his penultimate start, he was seen keeping on for a respectable eighth (of 17) in a Class 3 at York over this trip, while back in May, also at York, he finished a not-far-away seventh (of 20) in a Class 4, again staying on. Back at Class 5 level here, don’t be surprised if he gets more involved than the early odds suggest.
After all, we’re talking about a horse that is well handicapped. He now sits 6 lbs below his last winning mark in general, while he’s 5 lbs lower than his last all-weather success. His last all-weather win came over C&D in a better race than this.
In the last 12 months, Mick Easterby has had more winners at Southwell than anywhere else, while the trainer isn't exactly a stranger to using Lewis Chalkley’s claim to good effect either.
Listen, he may fail to fire. It wouldn’t be the first time, but for my money, ahead of a race such as this, he has a profile that makes odds of 12/1, which at the time of writing are on offer at bet365, look quite generous.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£30.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
Not even a squeak !!! ?
So glad I self excluded from all betting years ago to much to bet on now. (Be snail racing next lol) . My closest bookies is 15 min walk so only go if really fancy summat coz to easy to get carried away online.
It’s like having to ur devil in your pocket !