This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
Rizzel managed to get a win and a place from his three selections on Saturday. Good Earth was tough from the front end after getting a prominent position from a wide draw. Though he was headed he showed grit and stayed on strongly up the hill and won at drifted odds of 7/1, but 5/1 was the advised odds so that is what is put down on the spreadsheet.
Monte Linas did well to get second, grabbing some small place money. It was a surprise to see him stick on for a place as he was under the cosh a long way from home, but he stuck to his job without threatening the winner. Walter Hartright didn't manage to reel in the favourite in the opener at Beverley and I think the rail was a huge advantage for the winner.
Cairnzy is absent today, probably crying into his tea over Everton's defeat to Bournemouth in the dying moments of the game.
Profit/Loss for August ended at -0.464pts. It's not been an ideal month, but we put ourselves under a lot of pressure early into the month, and even last week it was around -15pts. We're far from happy with that, but at least the form of the last week is a positive to go off with Rizzel getting five winners and a place from his last nine selections and myself getting four winners from the last ten.
Rizzel's Tips
Stop The Cavalry 4/1 – Longchamp 3.35
It's a shame it's not closer to Christmas as I'd have loved to have made a pun with Stop The Cavalry, but we're now in September so I'm not going lower myself this far away.
I am going to give a chance to the Ralph Beckett filly in this race, and I definitely think it's a winnable race for the lightly raced three-year-old filly. The French horses have some good pieces of form if you take them at face value with the likes of Secretive and Atakama who were 2nd and 3rd behind a horse who has since Finished second in a Group 1, but I'm not totally sold on it as Richard Spencer's Naomi Lapaglia was a close fourth and she is hardly top drawer. I just thought that Stop The Cavalry would enjoy the step up in trip and potentially the soft ground they will endure in Paris.
She is by Lope De Vega and did win on soft ground on her debut, so you'd like to think the recent thunderstorms at Longchamp aren't going to hinder her chances. She clearly has pace, shown by winning over 6f on two occasions, but at Class 1 level I think she will be better over today's trip as she did come under pressure much sooner than the others at Goodwood but her best part was the finishing furlongs. The Goodwood race was over 7f, and it's a speedy track, so an extra furlong today on a slightly more conventional track should be better suited for her, playing more on her stamina which she has for this trip on both sides of her pedigree. She finished 6th/9 at Goodwood in a Group 3 and ran a big race to finish 1.25L behind the winner in a clumped finish. The form looks solid in comparison to the others in this field. The winner (first past the post) was 2nd to Porta Fortuna in a Group 1 the time before and is a 2x Listed winner, and since that race Breege (7th) has hacked up in a Group 2 at York.
Stop The Cavalry is one of two three-year-olds in this race, and gets the handy 5lbs weight for age allowance which makes her chances even better.
Super Sox 11/8 (2pt) – Tipperary 3.30
I do try and avoid short priced horses like Super Sox, but nothing else stands out as a bet to me on Sunday and I actually thought she was value at her current price, as I can see her going off odds-on.
I am part of the Paddy Twomey groupie, we should have had a winner last weekend with Paddy's Firebird but Billy Lee didn't get the gaps at the right time and the rest was history, but let's not dwell! This race doesn't look to be too competitive and the main threats would be Matilda Picotte and Thornbrook, but that doesn't take rocket science to work out. I just feel like on the good to firm ground, it is set up for Super Sox to win this race, IF getting a clear run, which is basically what flat racing is all dependant on these days. For me, Matilda Picotte is a hard horse and will likely make the running like she has done for her entire career, but she has much better form on soft ground, but today's ground is as far away from soft going as you can get in Ireland, so I had it down as Super Sox's race to lose.
Super Sox has only raced four times, so she does have a lot to prove, especially in Class 1 races but she looked like the real deal last time out at Cork when winning a Listed race. The Cork race was also run on good to firm and she seemed to relish it. She has a very high cruising speed, so if this does get messy on the front end, she shouldn't be lacking for pace if it turns into a sprint, but if it is a stamina test she seems covered on that as well as she clocked a good time last time out, which was 2.27s quicker than standard.
It's no surprise that Paddy Twomey has been firing in the winners, with 3 wins from his last 7 runners, and in hindsight, it should've been 4/7.
Wow, never seen this page so empty…everyone been banned, or has everyone gone on holiday together?
So yer banned from driving?”
Who knows KF, glad you were on USA one other night ?
Any for tonight mate?