Sunday’s Racing Tips – A winning start over fences looks likely for the classy Springtime Promise

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There was a NR on Saturday, which left us with just the two runners, resulting in one winner in the shape of Williethebuilder. He didn't look like a straightforward ride, with Harry Skelton looking quite desperate in the final furlong when trying to straighten up his horse.

Rizzel's Tips

Hand Over Fist 3/1 – Cork 3.15

I am a sucker for having a bet in a National race, and on Sunday it is the Paddy Power Cork Grand National (Listed Race). This isn't the greatest of renewals, as it is a 0-150 but the top weight is rated 131, so it is effectively a Class 3 race if it was to be run in the UK. I liked two in this race, both coming at the opposite ends of the weights, but I've ended up going with Hand Over Fist who carries 10st 10lbs.

Henry De Bromhead has started the new jumps season in red-hot form as we saw last week at Cheltenham when he had a winner and a second in the same race. He is operating at a 24% SR from the last fortnight, with 8 winners from 34 runners. When a yard is firing in winners like Henry is, the odds of their horses are generally shorter in the market than what they probably would be, but I don't think that's the case for his runner in this Cork National as his horse arrives in good form and is clearly progressing and his current handicap mark of 115 is still on the low side and I don't believe for one minute that he has reached his ceiling.

Today's trip is a new distance for Hand Over Fist, and that is also the case for the majority of the runners in the lineup. Not many in the race really stand out like they will really exceed over the 3m 4f but I think Hand Over Fist will. He has done his winning over slightly shorter and hasn't looked the most impressive, but his best part of the race comes at the end where he has the extra stamina, so the added furlongs he tackles today can only be deemed as a positive.

Springtime Promise 9/4 – Carlisle 12.48

Going for horses on chase debuts is always a gamble, and that's amplified even further when they are the favourite, but I do think that Springtime Promise could be a class above this field and is worth a chance on her first start over fences.

Mares races are weaker than open company races, but Springtime Promise for a sensation for Fergal O'Brien in her first season for the Cheltenham-based trainer last year, which included getting a Grade 2 win at Sandown over hurdles. In hindsight, the form of that race looks very good as the runner-up and third-placed horses have franked the form since over fences. The runner-up was third in the race Johnnywho won at Carlisle last week, and I'd be fairly confident that bar my selection, the rest in this race wouldn't get close to that horse.

Given she is 2/6 with a further two runner-up finishes in points, it makes me quite confident that she is going to be perfectly fine over fences and that she will be an even better chaser than a hurdler. Carlisle is a lovely starting point for chasers as the fences aren't the stiffest, and that's why you see a lot of southern-based trainers sending their horses up to this track for their novice chasers.

Fergal O'Brien has a 25% SR at this track in the last five years, so despite him not having the best of starts to the new season, that stat is a confident booster.

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