Sunday Racing Tips – 14/1 shot Gregorianna looks over priced at Redcar

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It's been a tough week with a lot of selections running below par, and a fair few hitting the crossbar, but that's how racing goes sometimes. No excuses on our part, the figures will be on tomorrow's thread.

Cairnzy's Tips –

Gregorianna 14/1 EW – Redcar 5.02

This race looks weak on paper which is to be expected given it's a class 6 contest. There aren't any world beaters in this field and it's mainly filled with inconsistent and exposed horses. The two horses that bring the winning form to the table can probably be avoided. Imprint just about did enough last time out and is up 7lb. Where's The Crumpet probably to improve again, despite winning last time out, and tends to prefer quicker ground.

The horse that caught my eye at the prices was the Julie Camacho runner Gregorianna who at 14/1 represents good each-way value in a race with question marks on most heads. Gregorianna has only raced three times in her career and comes here a completely unexposed horse.

My selection didn't show much in her first two outings for Julie Camacho and her prices for those contests tell you that she wasn't fancied to run well ( sent of 28/1 and 80/1 ). She was given a 139-day break before returning to Newcastle last month which saw her outrun her huge odds of 200/1 to finish third. She was well beaten that day, finishing over 14L behind the eventual winner. Regardless, there was a lot to like about that performance as she made some nice headway before the winner bolted clear to win. My selection now goes handicapping of a low mark of 55 and there's every reason to think that mark underestimates her potential ability. Ryan Sexton takes over in the saddle and I think she can run well at an attractive price.

Matterhorn 5/4 – Stratford 3.25

I'm sure punters will be all over the Paul Nicholls double on Sunday as he has two strong fancies on the card in Matterhorn and then Brave Knight in the following race. Brave Knight is too short in the market at 4/7 but at just over even money, Matterhorn is just about worth a bet in this contest on the back of his impressive season to date.

You can make claims for quite a few of this field, in particular the Skelton runner In This World who has been a model of consistency this season and finally got of the mark last time out when getting the better of the reopposing Calgary Tiger. The Gordon runner Only Money would have been my play had Matterhorn not been in the line up. Only Money looks reasonably well handicapped and gets his ideal ground conditions today.

I just can't see past Matterhorn in this contest, he's easily won his last three races and a 5lb rise for his recent 12L victory here a couple of weeks ago looks a tad lenient in my opinion. I can see this race being set up for those travelling best in behind, Calgary Tiger tends to go forward in his races, so a good gallop is pretty much guaranteed here. If Harry Cobden can get him Matterhorn traveling well and nicely positioned, then I see no reason he can't win again.

Rizzel's Tips –

Mountain Bear 10/3 – Curragh 3.15

Prior to Special Wan running poorly when I tipped her up earlier this week, I thought that the Mutasareef formline was good and that the Ger Lyons horse is a very good horse, but with Special Wan letting that form down by a considerable margin, I'm more than happy to take him on.

I am going with the Aidan O'Brien horse, Mountain Bear, in this Romanised Minstrel Stakes Group 2 over 7f. It might be the boring and predictable option to go with Aidan's horses, but his horses are the best in the business and generally are streets ahead with their pedigrees. This lad was a very good juvenile, he was second in a Group 1 at the Breeders' Cup meeting last year, and though he made a poor return this year, he ran much better at Royal Ascot in a very strong Group 3 race which had the 2nd of the Irish 2000 Guineas taking the victory. 7f looks more like this horse's trip, and the Curragh does use a fair bit of stamina, so the fact that he was running on at Ascot, which is another stiff track, bodes well for a big run in this race. He is a 3yo, and there should be a fair bit more to come from this well-bred son of No Nay Never.

I do think the EW value is the Karl Burke horse who should be better than his first run in Stakes company at Haydock last time out. He didn't show up last time out, but prior to that, his handicap form was worth following and it has produced winners since. Karl Burke is a tremendous trainer and his horse is my main concern.

Classy Boy 4/1 – Redcar 3.52

There will more than likely be a small rule 4 for this race as at the time of writing, Cerulean Bay is the 3/1 favourite and is still entered at Haydock, so chances are that he'll run at Haydock and then not run at Redcar. I think would have had a good chance in this race, but with a very high chance that he isn't going to run, Classy Boy gets my vote.

There doesn't seem to be a great deal of pace in this race and that should set it up perfectly for Classy Boy who does like to make the running. He was pestered for the lead at Hamilton last time out, and that scuppered his chances, but he still ran a brilliant race to finish third. The time before when they let him do his own thing on his own terms he won, and though there are a few in this race who like to sit prominently and apply pressure a couple of furlongs from home, for the majority of the race I think they won't get involved in a burn up for the lead, which will be ideal.

I'm sure the Edward Bethell trained runner will attract support as he is making his handicap debut and has the likeable unexposed profile, and these days a lot of Edward Bethell's horses are shorter in the market than what they probably should be due to him being a very good, ‘shrewd' trainer. However, the form of the others in this field doesn't scream out to me like they have a better chance than the Karl Burke horse, and I'm hoping for a big run with Pierre-Louis Jamin doing the steering.

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