Thunderous Love travelled nicely into the race, but so did the winner.
The winner of the race did come back to bite me. I tipped him up last time out, and I didn't think he would appreciate the drop in trip, but he stuck two fingers up at me as he glided past my selection. Thunderous Love remains in great form, but had to settle for second place.
Melakaz weakened strongly after being positioned towards the front. Another big-priced horse won the race, so taking on the top of the market was the correct decision, just on the wrong horse.
Shackleton 11/4 (2pt) – Curragh 4.15
I know a lot of the big personalities in Irish racing have spoken out against the Curragh for their lack of innovation, but also for the poor cards. This card is a decent one on paper with a Group 1 and other Class 1 races, but for whatever reason, they're not drawing the attention of decent horses. The Group 1 is a total shambles, and this Group 2 isn't the greatest either. Al Riffa is the early market favourite, and based on what he's achieved, it's hard to dispute it, but I don't think he's bulletproof, and it says it all that I think a horse like Shackleton can beat him.
Shackleton is not one of Aidan O'Brien's stable stars, and it's not even close. But he is a hardy horse who wears his heart on his sleeve, and that might be enough to win this. He is still a three-year-old, so gets the weight for age allowance (11lb at this time of year over 14f). I think the pull in weights is a big enough factor to sway with the Ryan Moore horse. Not only that, but he is proven over today's trip, whereas the favourite isn't.
They went from the front on Shackleton at Royal Ascot, and he ran a decent enough race in that Group 2. Last time out he was eighth in the Irish Derby, but was held up this time. Even though he was down the field, he still ran to a level of a 108 rated horse (according to the Racing Post numbers). Add 11lbs on to the 108 rating, and that means that Al Riffa will have to run to around 119 or better to beat him, judged on last time out. That could be a tough ask as he is definitely better on softer ground, and this trip is an unknown.
Star Style 8/1 (0.5pt EW, 3pl) – Newbury 5.20
Handicaps on Saturday at the big tracks are normally very competitive, but I don't get that vibe from the final race at Newbury.
My selection, Star Style, doesn't have the most appealing CV, so I'm hoping for a decent price. She made a winning debut last April over today's C&D, but hasn't managed to land a blow since.
She was put into a Group 1 on her second start, so she can be excused for that run. The two runs after it's hard to point out why she ran so badly. Last time out, on her return to the track, she was last of seventeen, but was the 4/1 favourite. When the money is down from the Richard Hannon stable, they don't get it wrong too many times. When they don't win, they tend to win on their next start. I think the fact that the money was down on her last time out means they do think she is on a good handicap mark.
The handicapper has dropped her by 3lbs for that performance, taking her to an official rating of 80. Hopefully, she lacked match fitness that day and can bounce back with a run over the C&D she showcased her ability on debut.
Stargazed 11/4 (1pt) – Ripon 2.10
The horses with experience in this race haven't produced fantastic efforts, so I can see why there is early money for Go Lockers Go. He is the only unreaced horse in the race and cost £200,000, so connections must be expecting a smart horse.
Karl Burke has been one of the best juvenile trainers in the country over the last five years, and he knows what level of horse he has. His comments on Stargazed put me on notice for this run on the weekend. He said she is a nice filly, and has been progressing well. I don't think we've seen anything like the finished article of Stargazed, who has a nice pedigree. She is a full sister to Starlust, a Group 1 winning sprinter from the Ralph Beckett stable.
Karl was hoping for a good draw, which makes me think they are going to be prominent on her. She is drawn widest of all, but she is an exuberant filly, so getting to the front shouldn't be an issue. The progression from her first to second run was a big jump, so I'm expecting more again this time.
GambleAware