I was meant to be doing Saturday's Lucky 15 thread but something has popped up for Cairnzy and that means I've been given the role for the main thread.
In term's of Cairnzy's Friday's selection, I didn't get to watch it as I've been busy throughout the day but he did message me to say that the jockey was riding the horse very confidently, arguably too confidently. A couple of late mistakes scuppered the chance of getting the win and Cairnzy said he wished the jockey didn't mess around and went for home when the horse was evidently cruising.
There is some good racing up at Kelso, and there is probably some value to be found, but it looks a very competitive card up in Scotland and I've decided to avoid that and focus on Newbury's card.
Rizzel's tips
Credo 11/4 – Newbury 1.20
I am a sucker for the Veteran races, and this race has drawn me into having a bet on Saturday. I am fairly certain that I wasn't on tipping duties when Credo last ran, but I had a look at the racing on that day and I expected her to win, and sure enough, she did, so that was a kick in the nuts, but that's the way things go. I am backing her for today's race, even though this race is tougher than her run at Exeter last time around and she is on a high enough mark at the age of ten, but I think that run shows she is in good form and can go in again.
There are some horses to be wary of, which is so often the case for Veteran chases as horses are very well handicapepd on older pieces of form, but ten-year-olds often have very good strike rates in these types of contests as they are the fresher horses and aren't completely washed, so I think Credo is a safe bet for this renewal.
It's going to be testing conditions out there at Newbury, so having confidence in Credo and knowing that she stays the trip is a huge plus. It is hard for me to go against an old selection of mine in Sam Brown who gets 10lbs off him again with Chad Bament in the saddle, but Credo's recent form actually looks solid, and not just from his Exeter win. She was a decent fourth at Wincanton over today's distance and the runner-up has since hosed up in a valuable Grade 3, and even the time before at Haydock where she was fourth again, the winner was running into the places in the Eider chase last weekend (plus the horses in 2nd and 3rd have run well or won since), so there is definite substance.
Nap Hand 4/1 – Newbury 1.55
A horse I tipped up last month, who probably should've won or was very unlucky not to win was Nap Hand and I think he deserves another chance on this thread as a selection now he goes handicapping.
There are questions to be answered for Nap Hand as we don't know if he is well-handicapped or not, but based on his two runs over hurdles to date I think there has to be room off a mark of 118. I thought Tom Cannon was very weak on him last time out, being out muscled by Nico De Stonehands is never a good look, but that is what happened at Huntingdon when the front two pulled 14L clear of the third. His hurdling debut performance was a decent effort at Kempton and he wasn't exactly asked for a maximum effort that day when pitched out the back, but he ‘ran on' if you want to say that to finish third that day.
The ground should not be an issue for this ex-flat horse who is by Fast Company who is arguably one of the best soft ground sires in the flat world. Nap Hand was a useful flat handicapper, reaching a peak rating of 86 before transitioning to jumps. His best performance came at this track on the flat on heavy ground when producing an RPR of 94 over 10f, so if he can transfer that level of performance to today's race, I think he will be too good for this decent field.
Phillip Armson takes the ride in this conditional jockey's race, knocking off a handy 3lbs.
Moroder 20/1 EW (4pl) – Doncaster 3.15
My ‘stab in the dark' selection for Saturday is Moroder who has everything to prove with some horrendous form on his recent profile, but at the prices I'll take the risk.
He won this race a fair few years ago off a higher mark, so we know he handles the track and we know he is well-handicapped off his current mark. I think I tipped him up for his last effort in a Veterans race where he ran such a strange race. He was off the bridle, then he was up with the pace and was trading quite short in running, before he eventually got tired and went backwards very quickly.
He hasn't been seen since November, so they've either put him away whilst the ground has not been the best as he likes good ground and that is the ground he gets for today's race.
Seamus Mullins isn't one for sending horses out of the southern area tracks, but when he does, he tends to do quite well. He is 2/7 at Doncaster in the last five years, so at a big price I thought it was worth a punt on the eleven-year-old doing the business in this big prize handicap.
